UFC Fight Night 121 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 17 at 10:30 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 17 at 10:30 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

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UFC 216 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 6 at 9:15 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 6 at 9:15 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2015 to 7/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

UFC Fight Night 96 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Sept. 30 at 1:35 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Sept. 30 at 1:35 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

John Lineker lands a knockout for every 118.8 sig strikes, while John Dodson lands one every 67.4 sig strikes.

Dodson allows 3.40 sig strikes per minute by his opponents, if we removed the two fights against Demetrious Johnson, that number falls all the way to 2.61

Will Brooks' StrikeScore only includes his bout against Satoru Kitaoka in Dream and his win over Ross Pearson in his UFC debut.

Alex Oliveira relies on his wrestling as he lands 2.48 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he only lands 30 percent of his attempts.

Josh Burkman has only won one of his last eight fights in the UFC. In those fights, he has landed 327 sig strikes and absorbed 349 during that span.

Zak Ottow’s peak Fight Matrix ranking was #181 on 7/1/2015. He is currently ranked as the #211 welterweight.

In his last outing, Louis Smolka put up a 2194 StrikeScore over Ben Nguyen, which is one of the top scores this year.

Hacran Dias has fought every possible minute of his UFC career, 90 minutes.

Andre Fili has alternated wins and losses in the UFC since joining the promotion in 2013.

In his first three UFC bouts, Walt Harris had been knocked out twice and outstruck 68 to 41. He finally broke through against Cody East and picked up his first win at UFC 197.

K-Taro gets it done without striking. In the UFC, he has been outstruck by more than a full sig strike per minute, 2.46 vs 3.74.

In his two UFC fight, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos has been taken down nine times, but he has absorbed only 5 sig strikes on the ground.

Nate Marquardt has fallen on hard times...

In his UFC return, Tamdan McCrory was a +125 underdog and won. In his next bout, he was a 1-65 favorite and lost.

Jonathan Wilson absorbed 8.82 sig strikes per minute against Henrique da Silva in his last fight. That defense will need to improve to be successful in the UFC.

Ion Cutelaba struggled mightily in the UFC debut against Misha Cirkunov. He was outstruck 44 to 24 and eventually submitted in the third round.

Cody East’s quarterly generated historical ranking fell to #73 for the last quarter. He had been in the top 50 since 2013.

During his run through the 2012 NJCAA wrestling bracket, Curtis Blaydes had a 80.74 WPE.

In her UFC debut, Kelly Faszholz was leading Lauren Murphy in terms of sig strikes 70 to 57 through the first two rounds. In the third, Faszholz landed only 6 compared to 38 for Murphy, and she fell via knockout.

Ketlen Vieira is an undefeated fighter out of Brazil. She has five finishes in six fights. 

TUF 23 Finale Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 7/8/2016 9:00 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 7/8/2016 9:00 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighters with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database

*Fighters with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Claudia Gadelha
The only fighter who has come close to defeating Jedrzejczyk in the UFC is Gadelha. If we remove the Gadelha fight from the Polish fighter’s StrikeScore actually bumps up another 29 points. 

Gadelha might not be able to win a striking battle, but her wrestling might end up being the difference. She lands 5.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and finishes 61 percent of her attempts.

Andrew Sanchez vs. Khalil Rountree
Tatiana Suarez vs. Amanda Cooper

Going into the 23rd season of TUF, Sanchez (#71) and Rountree (#203) were both ranked at middleweight in the Fight Matrix rankings. Of the fighters in their division, they were fourth and ninth in terms of ranking. Neither Suarez or Cooper were ranked before the show and they beat out two fighters Kate Jackson (#17) and Ashley Cummins (#7) who had peak rankings in the top 20.

Ross Pearson vs. Will Brooks
Pearson has alternated wins and losses in the UFC since 2014. In his last fight, he scored a decision victory over Chad Laprise despite losing the StrikeScore 58 to 159. Brooks is a big favorite and for good reason. He is currently #4 at lightweight per Fight Matrix. Bellator champions in the UFC have been a mixed bag. Eddie Alvarez has proven he belongs while Hector Lombard has been up and down. The only fight listed in the FightMetric database for Brooks is his second-round destruction of Satoru Kitaoka, which explains the high StrikeScore

Doo Ho Choi vs. Thiago Tavares
It is a small sample size, but… Choi has landed 15.14 sig strikes per minute in the UFC and finished two opponents in a combined 111 seconds. He takes his biggest step up in competition here.

As the StrikeScore shows, Tavares is not really a striker. He has come a long way and is not getting knocked out by guys like Shane Roller anymore. However, he will need to get this fight on the floor to be successful.