UFC on Fox 22 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 16 at 1:00 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 16 at 1:00 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2015 to 10/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with less than three bouts in the FightMetric database

*Fighter with less than three bouts in the FightMetric database

UFC 203 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 9/9/2016 4:30 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 9/9/2016 4:30 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with less than three bouts in the FightMetric database

*Fighter with less than three bouts in the FightMetric database


Stipe Miocic has scored knockouts in six of 11 bouts in the UFC. In his last five fights, he is scoring 0.077 knockouts per minute.

Alistair Overeem's accuracy is best in UFC history and prevents counters.

Prior to his title fight against Miocic, Fabricio Werdum had only knocked out once by Junior dos Santos in 2008.

When Travis Browne loses, he tends to get blown out. In his five UFC losses, he has been outstruck 295 to 111.

During his scripted WWE career, CM Punk went 425-245-31. Despite having a supposed BJJ background, only 28 of those 425 victories came via submission. However, he was strong defensively on the ground. He was submitted only six times in 701 matches. (Stats via ProFightdb.com)

Mickey Gall landed only one sig strikes in his 45-second submission victory over Michael Jackson in his UFC debut.

Urijah Faber actually avoids 64 percent of his opponent's sig strikes, but he also lands at a low percentage 41 percent.

After three UFC fights, Jimmie Rivera is landing nearly five sig strikes per minute. In his last fight, he landed three of five takedowns.

In her first fight at 115 pounds, Jessica Andrade landed 14.75 sig strikes per minute, well above her normal mark of 6.58.

Joanne Calderwood is one fight short of qualify for UFC record. After four UFC fights, she is landed 7.35 sig strikes per minute, which is better than the current record holder Nikita Krylov (6.94).

Excluding her fight against Leslie Smith, Jessica Eye has been outstruck in the UFC 254 to 208.

Bethe Correia fought for a UFC title despite never being above #10 in the Fight Matrix Quarterly Generated Historical Rankings.

Brad Tavares has landed 463 sig strikes in the UFC but registered only one knockout He scored one against Phi Baroni in 2011.

During his last three fights, Caio Magalhaes has spent less than five minutes total in the Octagon.

Nik Lentz has landed 54 takedowns in his UFC career which is seventh best all time.

Per Fight Matrix, Michael McBride's peak ranking at #293 at lightweight in the first quarter of 2016.

After accounting for his four knockout losses, CB Dollaway's StrikeScore falls from 126 to 102.

Francimar Barroso's number of significant strikes landed and absorbed are virtually identical (2.82 landed and 2.85 absorbed).

Some people are just not into defense. Yancy Medeiros absorbs over five sig strikes per minute and avoids only 44 percent of his opponent's strikes. That explains his incredibly low StrikeScore (32).

Remember when Sean Spencer was robbed against Cathal Pendred?

In his UFC/Strikeforce career, Drew Dober has been outstruck 223 to 173.

From 2012 to today, Jason Gonzalez has more than doubled his Fight Matrix rankings points, 23 to 51. He is currently ranked #200 lightweight.

Michael Bisping's shocking knockout and other notes from UFC 199

Michael Bisping’s title claiming upset over Luke Rockhold was one of the biggest upsets in UFC title fight history. However, the way that the fight ending is perhaps even more surprising. Over the course of his 26-fight UFC career, Bisping has scored 10 knockouts. That is not a terrible knockout rate. With that being said, a lot of the finishes were the result of an accumulation of strikes. Going into Saturday night, Bisping was landing a knockout for every 133 sig strikes landed.

Against Rockhold, Bisping needed only 21 strikes to turn the lights out and take the belt. That is the fewest sig strikes Bisping has landed in a knockout victory since he bested Eric Schafer in 2006. The Rockhold finish is also the fastest Bisping knockout in his UFC career. Finally, Rockhold had the highest Fight Matrix peak ranking of any of Bisping’s knockout victims.

To come close to Dominick Cruz, you need to throw… a lot
Only one opponent in the UFC has landed over 30 percent of their sig strikes against Cruz, Demetrious Johnson (35). While Cruz’s constant motion forces opponents to constantly miss strikes, he still lands at a relatively solid percentage for an outside striker. If fighters want to match him in the standup, they are forced to throw an excessive number of strikes. On Saturday, Faber was outlanded by 53 strikes. Not only was he landing at a lower rate, he also attempted 101 fewer strikes. In the UFC, the fighter who has come the closest to matching Cruz in terms of landed strikes is T.J. Dillashaw. In their January meeting, Dillashaw landed 109 sig strikes compared to Cruz’s 112. To get that close, Dillashaw had to attempt 430 strikes, which is 118 more than Cruz on that night.

StrikeScore Boxscore
StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. You can read more about it here. At UFC 199, Beneil Dariush took home the highest score of the night for his knockout over James Vick. None of the performances were strong enough to crack the top ten of 2016.

UFC 199 Fight Forecast

In the main event of UFC 199, Luke Rockhold will look to defend his middleweight title against Michael Bisping. The two faced off for the first time at UFC Fight Night 55. On that night, Rockhold scored a second-round guillotine choke submission. In addition to the submission finish, Rockhold had the edge in the striking game. He finished with a 225 SS+, while Bisping had only a 30.

Not only did Rockhold out-perform Bisping in the striking game, he was also not at his best. His 225 SS+ performance is actually below his average (302) over his last 10 fights.

Bisping also performed below his average. While Rockhold was 77 points under, Bisping was 109 points below his average score.

With news breaking that Rockhold might not be a 100 percent due to a knee injury, Bisping might become a more attractive underdog. However, from a striking perspective at least, Rockhold has already proven that he can win without being at his best.

Dominick Cruz is a favorite across the board
If we look at the new StrikeScore Composite Prediction, Cruz is a huge favorite over his rival Urijah Faber. The Composite prediction is an average of the scaled metrics including StrikeScore, UFC Fantasy, Tapology, betting odds, DraftKings and Fight Matrix. Cruz is the favorite 73 to 27 percent.

Scaled Cruz vs. Faber III Predicitions

Fight Forecast
Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 6/3/2016 3:00 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 6/3/2016 3:00 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database **Ranking at welterweight ^Ranking at bantamweight ^^Ranking at light heavyweight

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database
**Ranking at welterweight
^Ranking at bantamweight
^^Ranking at light heavyweight