UFC Fight Night 117 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Sept. 22 at 9:15 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Sept. 22 at 9:15 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2015 to 7/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

Jared Cannonier posts highest StrikeScore on the TUF 25 Finale

While all the attention was rightfully directed at Justin Gaethje and Michael Johnson, Jared Cannonier managed to put up a 611 StrikeScore for his performance against Nick Roehrick. He landed 84 significant strikes, while absorbing only 28. He also finished the bout in the third round. The following table is ranked by StrikeScore

TUF 25 Finale Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of July 6 at 12:40 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of July 6 at 12:40 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

Using the information above StrikeScore uses an Excel Solver tool to calculate the best possible DraftKings lineups using each different criterion. The following table shows the best lineup based on the criteria. For the StrikeScore team, fighters with fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database are not considered. For the DraftKings Points team, fighters without previous UFC fights are not considered. Odds/Finish is the average of a fighter's odds to win and his/her odds to finish the first inside the distance. Any advice offered as part of Fight Forecast is the opinion of the website. With that, StrikeScore is not responsible for the success of the article in recommending specific players to readers.

UFC Fight Night 99 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 18 at 11:15 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 18 at 11:15 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2015 to 10/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with less than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fighter with less than three fights in FightMetric database

On Saturday, former Strikeforce and Dream champion Gegard Mousasi returns to action. He will try to avenge his only loss since 2014 against Uriah Hall. The knockout loss against Hall was probably one of the most shocking upsets of 2015. Not only because was it a jumping, spinning back kick, but also because Mousasi is one of the most tactical strikers in middleweight history. His 414 StrikeScore is the highest among ranked middleweights (UFC rankings). His abnormally high score is due mostly to his outlier defense statistics. Sure, Mousasi lands 3.67 sig strikes per minute. That is nothing to sneeze at, but his 1.17 sig strikes absorbed per minute is best in the rankings. He also allows opponents to land only 31 percent of their sig strike attempts. 

The following scatter plot highlight's Mousasi's outlier status in terms of defensive striking.

As previously stated, while Mousasi's defensive numbers are far and away the best, his offensive numbers are also above average. In the following table, best stats are listed in blue, while worst are listed in red.

Yair Rodriguez sets personal best SSpM and other notes from UFC Fight Night 92

The following is a stats=based recap of UFC Fight Night 92. The number listed in parentheses is the StrikesScore achieved by each fighter.

Yair Rodríguez (206) vs. Alex Caceres (40)
Rodriguez landed 4.8 sig strikes per minute against Caceres which is a new personal best in the UFC. He previous best rate was 3.73 SSpM against Charles Rosa. Rodriguez really upped his volume to achieve this. He attempted 13.52 SSpM, which is nearly double his previous high of 7.31. At this event, Rodriguez’s cardio held up and he successfully defended himself from counters and takedowns. However, missing that many strikes is probably not the best approach to fighting against better competition.

Caceres only managed to land 2.48 SSpM, which is his lowest rate since being knocked out without landing a strike against Francisco Rivera last year.

Dennis Bermudez (671) vs. Rony Jason (-39)
Bermudez was able to steamroll his way through the first two rounds. In the first round, he landed 24 sig strikes while absorbing only one. In the second round, he returned to his wrestling base and landed four of his six takedown attempts. Jason has not won a decision in his eight-fight UFC career since his debut in 2012. 

Thales Leites (476) vs. Chris Camozzi (1)
This fight was just what the doctor ordered for Leites. In his last two fights, he had absorbed 196 sig strikes, so he was probably not looking forward to another beating. Since Camozzi had no answers for Leites’ grappling game, he managed to land only 8 sig strikes over the nearly 13-minute fight. Leites picked up his fifth submission win in 11 UFC wins.

Santiago Ponzinibbio (266) vs. Zak Cummings (10)
Cumings seemed determined to prove that he could win a standup fight with Ponzinibbio. He was able to hang in, but he was continually beaten to the punch. Cummings attempted 36 more sig strikes, but was outlanded 58 to 35. As expected Ponzinibbio had much better footwork and was much more accurate en route to the decision victory.

Trevor Smith (305) vs. Joe Gigliotti (16)
Smith had never absorbed fewer sig strikes in a fight that went to decision. Gigliotti only managed to land 15 sig strikes. The former Iowa State wrestler also landed four takedowns, which is a new career high for UFC/Strikeforce career. 

Maryna Moroz (38) vs. Danielle Taylor (267)
This fight was a historic example of striking ineptitude. Together Moroz and Taylor combined to land only 34 of 353 attempted significant strikes. Moroz attempted 251 strikes and landed only 17, while Taylor also landed 17 on 102 attempts. Moroz’s sig strike accuracy fell from 37 to 22 percent after the performance.

Court McGee (74) vs. Dominique Steele (145)
With only 38 sig strikes landed in a 15-minute fight, StrikeScore does not tell the whole story. However, Steele did outland McGee and landed the better strikes after getting stunned early. However, McGee continue to come forward and attempted 15 takedowns, which always has an influence on the judges.

Marcin Tybura (843) vs. Viktor Pesta (-151)
This fight ended up being an even money fight. Cleary Tybura’s stock fell in the eyes of the bookmakers after his defeat in his UFC debut. He had a clear advantage in the striking game and it showed. Pesta managed to land only 3 sig strikes, which means he has been kept in single digits for his last two fights. Tybura has been ranked as high as #12 by Fight Matrix and will likely get back there considering the heavyweight landscape.

David Teymur (475) vs. Jason Novelli (-103)
Going into the card, it seemed like Teymur was the more polished striker. That turned out to be the case. Novelli struggled to land anything of note and ate heavy strikes whenever he tried to kick. Teymur really found his range in round two and ended the fight. His accuracy jumped from 38 percent first round to 66 percent in the second. 

Teruto Ishihara (453) vs. Horacio Gutierrez (-110)
For his last two fights, “Yashabo” is landing a knockout for every 20 landed significant strikes. He needed only 13 to get it done against Gutierrez. 

Cub Swanson (469) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (-30)
Kawajiri came in as a +270 underdog and put a scare into Swanson. “The Crusher” probably deserved to win the first round with a takedown and three passes on the ground. However, two of the three judges ended up giving Swanson 30-27 scorecards. Swanson was the better striker throughout and outlanded Kawajiri on sig strikes in rounds two and three 57 to 17. Kawajiri went three for 12 on takedown attempts and lost for the first time in the Octagon after landing more than one takedown.

Justin Ledet (232) vs. Chase Sherman (24)
Ledet was the superior striker from the start. He ended up outlanding Sherman 113 to 59 on sig strikes, but that does not even tell the whole story. Sherman’s only consistent weapon were some pretty damaging leg kicks. Outside of that, he was not really able to score. Excluding those leg kicks, Ledet’s advantage moves to 113 to 23. After the impressive debut, it will be interesting to see how Ledet does moving forward. Other UFC heavyweights will attempt to test his clinch work and takedown defense much more than Sherman did. 

UFC Fight Night 92 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 8/5/2016 2:00 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 8/5/2016 2:00 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with less than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fighter with less than three fights in the FightMetric database