Frankie Edgar earns top StrikeScore at UFC 211

StrikeScore awarded Frankie Edgar with the most efficient striking performance of UFC 211. He outlanded Yair Rodriguez 72 to 16 in terms of significant strikes. On the way towards a second-round stoppage, the former lightweight champion landed 69 percent of his strikes. He did his best work on the ground, as he landed 96 percent of his significant strikes on the ground. 

Take a look at the rest of the StrikeScores from last Saturday’s event. You might be surprised to be see Stipe Miocic’s performance as low as fifth. Well, there is a reason for that. The StrikeScore formula equally values landed strikes and striking accuracy. Miocic landed 26 punches and finished the fight in the first round, but Junior dos Santos landed 66 percent of his strikes.

UFC 211 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of May 12 at 3:00 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of May 12 at 3:00 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

UFC 203 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 9/9/2016 4:30 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 9/9/2016 4:30 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with less than three bouts in the FightMetric database

*Fighter with less than three bouts in the FightMetric database


Stipe Miocic has scored knockouts in six of 11 bouts in the UFC. In his last five fights, he is scoring 0.077 knockouts per minute.

Alistair Overeem's accuracy is best in UFC history and prevents counters.

Prior to his title fight against Miocic, Fabricio Werdum had only knocked out once by Junior dos Santos in 2008.

When Travis Browne loses, he tends to get blown out. In his five UFC losses, he has been outstruck 295 to 111.

During his scripted WWE career, CM Punk went 425-245-31. Despite having a supposed BJJ background, only 28 of those 425 victories came via submission. However, he was strong defensively on the ground. He was submitted only six times in 701 matches. (Stats via ProFightdb.com)

Mickey Gall landed only one sig strikes in his 45-second submission victory over Michael Jackson in his UFC debut.

Urijah Faber actually avoids 64 percent of his opponent's sig strikes, but he also lands at a low percentage 41 percent.

After three UFC fights, Jimmie Rivera is landing nearly five sig strikes per minute. In his last fight, he landed three of five takedowns.

In her first fight at 115 pounds, Jessica Andrade landed 14.75 sig strikes per minute, well above her normal mark of 6.58.

Joanne Calderwood is one fight short of qualify for UFC record. After four UFC fights, she is landed 7.35 sig strikes per minute, which is better than the current record holder Nikita Krylov (6.94).

Excluding her fight against Leslie Smith, Jessica Eye has been outstruck in the UFC 254 to 208.

Bethe Correia fought for a UFC title despite never being above #10 in the Fight Matrix Quarterly Generated Historical Rankings.

Brad Tavares has landed 463 sig strikes in the UFC but registered only one knockout He scored one against Phi Baroni in 2011.

During his last three fights, Caio Magalhaes has spent less than five minutes total in the Octagon.

Nik Lentz has landed 54 takedowns in his UFC career which is seventh best all time.

Per Fight Matrix, Michael McBride's peak ranking at #293 at lightweight in the first quarter of 2016.

After accounting for his four knockout losses, CB Dollaway's StrikeScore falls from 126 to 102.

Francimar Barroso's number of significant strikes landed and absorbed are virtually identical (2.82 landed and 2.85 absorbed).

Some people are just not into defense. Yancy Medeiros absorbs over five sig strikes per minute and avoids only 44 percent of his opponent's strikes. That explains his incredibly low StrikeScore (32).

Remember when Sean Spencer was robbed against Cathal Pendred?

In his UFC/Strikeforce career, Drew Dober has been outstruck 223 to 173.

From 2012 to today, Jason Gonzalez has more than doubled his Fight Matrix rankings points, 23 to 51. He is currently ranked #200 lightweight.

Analyzing Stipe Miocic's KO power and other notes from UFC 198, Bellator 154 and Glory 30

Despite not having a huge reputation as a power striker, Stipe Miocic was able to stop Fabricio Werdum with a single back-peddling punch and win the UFC heavyweight title. Perhaps Miocic should be more respected for his power.

The former Cleveland State wrestler now has four knockouts in his last five fights. He has scored those KOs in a little over 52 minutes of cage time. That means he is earning a .077 knockouts per minute during the stretch. The number is good enough for third best compared to the rest of the ranked heavyweights on the UFC roster.


FighterKO per Minute (Last 5 Fights)
Lewis0.123
Overeem0.080
Miocic0.077
Oliynyk0.070
Arlovski0.067
Hunt0.067
Browne0.060
Mir0.056
Velasquez0.046
Rothwell0.040
Barnett0.026
Struve0.022
Werdum0.020
Nelson0.015
Dos Santos0.010
Magomedov0.000

For Maia, BJJ is the best defense
Over his last three bouts, Demian Maia has absorbed a total of 12 sig strikes. He has absorbed only 12 strikes in his last 37 minutes of cage time. That means his opponents have landed 0.32 sig strikes per minute. To put that number in perspective, the UFC career record for absorbing the fewest sig strikes per minute is 1.18.

Cyborg tops the StrikeScore
Surprisingly none of the performance from UFC 198 were able to crack the StrikeScore Top 10 Most Efficient Striking Performances of 2016 list. However, Cris Cyborg came the closest in her UFC debut. Her first-round stoppage over Leslie Smith earned a 1595 StrikeScore, which is the 12th best score of the year. Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza also cracked the century mark with a 1063 StrikeScore for his total destruction of Vitor Belfort.

Phil Davis vs. King Mo
Fans in the building at Bellator 154 did not seem to agree with the judges awarding Phil Davis the decision victory over Muhammed Lawal. The media echoed that sentiment with five of six writers going with Lawal over Davis. However, for the most part it looks like Davis was at least the better striker over the three rounds. Even though this was not the most exciting fight, it drives home the point that Bellator needs to follow the UFC’s lead and implement five-round non-title main events. The video of the entire fight is available at Bellator.com.

Phil Davis vs. Muhammed Lawal StrikeScore by Round

Glory 30 Superfight Series Box Score
Strikeforce and UFC veteran Guto Inocente has really found a home for himself in Glory. He continued his winning streak with a one-sided decision victory over Ganryujima veteran Brian Douwes and scored the highest StrikeScore of the Superfight Series.

UFC 198 Fight Forecast

On Saturday, the UFC returns with UFC 198. In the main event, heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum defends his title against Stipe Miocic. 

One of the most interesting aspects of Werdum’s MMA career has been his continual improvement. After beginning his career as a one-dimensional grappler, he has morphed into a fighter capable of knocking out Mark Hunt and forcing Cain Velasquez to shoot for takedowns.

Werdum’s improvement is most noteworthy in terms of his ability to land significant strikes. During his current UFC run, the Brazilian is landing 5.61 sig strikes per minute. To put that number into perspective, that is only slightly behind the UFC career number for bantamweight slugger John Lineker (5.62).

Not only is that an impressive level of striking output for a heavyweight, but it also more than double the number of sig strikes per minute Werdum was landing during his runs in Pride FC and Strikeforce as well as his first stint in the UFC.

Earlier in his career, Werdum would have most likely struggled against a guy he could not drag to the ground. However, now he appears more than capable in multiple facets of MMA. No matter what happens on Saturday against Stipe Miocic, more fighters should follow the Werdum model and continue to craft their fight game.

Fight Forecast
StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 5/13/2016 4:30 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 5/13/2016 4:30 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. The stat provides a measure of how a fighter has improved or declined in terms of the Fight Matrix rankings over the past two years.

*Fighters with less than 3 bouts in FightMetric database

*Fighters with less than 3 bouts in FightMetric database

Other Notes:

Near Lock for Fight of the Night
Rob Font lands 5.55 sig strikes per minute and has finished all of his bouts in the UFC by knockout. Standing across the cage will be John Lineker who lands 5.62 sig strikes per minute has scored four knockouts in nine UFC fights. Expect fireworks.

Just Scrap
Hawaiian MMA pioneer B.J. Penn always promoted the "Just Scrap" philosophy. His fellow islander Yancy Medeiros seems to be a true believer. Over the course of his UFC career, he has absorbed over half of his opponents' strikes and nearly eaten a strike for every one that he lands.

Brazilian Ironman
There might not be much fanfare, but Francisco Trinaldo is riding a five-fight winning streak. On Saturday, he will fight in the UFC for the 13th time. Of his 13 fights, 10 will have taken place in his native Brazil.

Marquardt Decline
We wrote about the decline of Nate Marquardt prior to his last bout. Even though we seem to have jumped the gun, it is still nearing the end of his career. Prior to 2013, he had fought 44 times and suffered only one knockout. Since 2013, he has fought seven times and been knocked out thrice.

Cyborg World
The StrikeScore list above for Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos is based only on her Strikeforce and Elite XC bouts. It would actually be much higher if it included data from Invicta FC. In her five bouts for the promotion, she has picked up knockouts in all five. Her cumulative fight time was only a little bit over 32 minutes with 19 coming in her longest fight against Marloes Coenen.