Bellator 186 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast is a recurring series at StrikeScoreMMA.com that provides a stats based preview of upcoming events. Since striking stats are not available outside the UFC, we need to get a bit creative. The following uses Fight Matrix rankings, peak rank, Tapology user votes, betting odds and Rankings Momentum.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be includedTapology scores are as of Nov. 3 at 9:30 a.m. ET. Betting odds are from 5Dimes as of Nov. 3 at 9:30 a.m. ET.

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Bellator 180/NYC Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast is a recurring series at StrikeScoreMMA.com that provides a stats based preview of upcoming events. Since striking stats are not available outside the UFC, we need to get a bit creative. The following uses Fight Matrix rankings, peak rank, Tapology user votes, betting odds and Rankings Momentum.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be includedTapology scores are as of June 23 at 10:30 a.m. ET. Betting odds are from 5Dimes as of June 23 at 10:30 a.m. ET.

UFC Fight Night 100 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 18 at 11:15 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 18 at 11:15 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2015 to 10/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fighter with fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

CM Punk joins the 2016 Zero Club

It is an understatement to say that CM Punk did not have the best performance in his UFC debut against Mickey Gall. He managed to land zero significant strikes, zero takedowns, zero submission attempts and zero passes. 

Screenshot FightMetric.com

Screenshot FightMetric.com

The egregrious stat line certainly stands out, but it actually not totally rare. So far in 2016, seven other fighters have been "zeroed." In fact, it actually happened three times on one card, UFC Fight Night 83 back in February. The following tables shows all the fighters who have put up equivalent stat lines this year. All stats via FightMetric.com


FighterOpponentEventDateStrTDSubPass
Ryan BaderAnthony JohnsonUFC on Fox 181/30/20160000
Joe RiggsChris CamozziUFC Fight Night 832/21/20160000
Roan CarneiroDerek BrunsonUFC Fight Night 832/21/20160000
Daniel SarafianOluwale BamgboseUFC Fight Night 832/21/20160000
Thibault GoutiTeemu PackalenUFC Fight Night 842/27/20160000
Clint HesterMarcos Rogerio de LimaUFC 1974/23/20160000
Antonio SilvaStefan StruveUFC Fight Night 875/8/20160000
CM PunkMickey GallUFC 2039/10/20160000

UFC Fight Night 93 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 9/2/2016 11:00 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 9/2/2016 11:00 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

Anthony Johnson makes a statement and other notes from UFC on Fox 18

Well that was that. Anthony Johnson easily stuffed Ryan Bader's takedown attempt, avoided a submission and finished the former Arizona State wrestler in the first round. Bader did not even have the chance to attempt a a single strike before succumbing to the knockout.

In his lone defeat since his UFC return in 2014, Johnson was takendown three times by Daniel Cormier. In many ways his inability to stop the takedown was his downfall in that fight. However, outside of that performance, Johnson has shown solid if not impressive defensive wrestling. As mentioned, he stopped Bader's takedown with ease, and he stuffed all eight of Phil Davis' attempts. Obviously, Cormier is a world medalist in wrestling and on another level, but Johnson's defensive wrestling might actually be underrated at this point.

Johnson picked up his 15th career knockout and his 8th since moving up to light heavyweight in 2012. Bader had been knocked out on two previous occasions, against Lyoto Machida in 2012 and Glover Teixeira in 2013. This was his quickest knockout defeat.

"Rumble" earned a 9500 StrikeScore for the performance, which was the high score for the event, month and year to date. The knockout earns the first StrikeScore MMA Performance of the Month award.

The following is the updated StrikeScore MMA Top Ten Most Efficient Striking Performances in the UFC for 2016

RankFighterOpponentEventDateStrikeScore
1Anthony JohnsonRyan BaderUFC on Fox 181/30/20169500
2Sheldon WestcottEdgar GarciaUFC 1951/2/20163424
3Chris WadeMehdi BaghdadUFC FN 811/17/2016590
4Rob FontJoey GomezUFC FN 811/17/2016570
5Patrick CoteBen SaundersUFC FN 811/17/2016547
6Rafael NatalKevin CaseyUFC on Fox 181/30/2016531
7Masanori KaneharaMichael McDonaldUFC 1951/2/2016432
8Ilir LatifiSean O'ConnellUFC FN 811/17/2016400
9Ed HermanTim BoetschUFC FN 811/17/2016310
10Diego BrandaoBrian OrtegaUFC 1951/2/2016289

Ben Rothwell submits Josh Barnett

As mentioned on the broadcast, Barnett had never been submitted due to an actual hold before. He tapped out twice to Mirko "CroCop" Filipović, once due to an injury and the other time to strikes. Of course, Barnett has fallen via submission in grappling matches. In fact, he submitted twice, to Mark Kerr and Ricardo Almeida, at the 2000 ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championships. Almeida was actually working Saturday's event as a judge for the New Jersey State Athletic Control Board. This is not to say that Barnett's ground game is overrated. These matches were 16 years ago, and Barnett is currently the Metamoris champion (for whatever that is worth these days...)

Mark Kerr vs. Josh Barnett

Ricardo Almeida vs. Josh Barnett

Kevin Casey's ouput falls off a cliff following flash knockdown

Occassionaly fighters get dropped in MMA. It is easy for a commentator or viewer to assume that the fighters have recovered after the round break or an extended period of time. However, this is often not the case. The fight between Rafael Natal and Kevin Casey is a good example of this. In the final seconds of round 1, Natal dropped Casey. During the break, he appeared to recover, but his performance shows a different story.

In round 1, Casey attempted 30 strikes and landed 33 percent. After the knock down, his output fell to 7 attempted sig stikres in round 2 and 12 in round 3.