Bellator 183 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast is a recurring series at StrikeScoreMMA.com that provides a stats based preview of upcoming events. Since striking stats are not available outside the UFC, we need to get a bit creative. The following uses Fight Matrix rankings, peak rank, Tapology user votes, betting odds and Rankings Momentum.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2015 to 7/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be includedTapology scores are as of Sept. 22 at 9:30 a.m. ET. Betting odds are from 5Dimes as of Sept. 22 at 9:30 a.m. ET.

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UFC on Fox 24 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of April 14 at 9:40 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of April 14 at 9:40 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

UFC Fight Night 95 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Sept. 23 at 12:15 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Sept. 23 at 12:15 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fighter with fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

Cyborg has landed seven knockouts in her eight UFC/Strikeforce/EliteXC career. The only fighter to go the distance with her was Yoko Takahashi in 2008.

Lina Lansberg is undefeated since 2012 and the #7 women’s featherweight per Fight Matrix. The only fighters ranked above her who are not signed with Bellator are Charmaine Tweet and Megan Anderson. Read more about the issues with finding suitable women's featherweights here.

Excluding bouts against T.J. Dillashaw, Renan Barao has outlanded his opponents 485 to 354. Against Dillashaw, he was been outstruck 257 to 126.

“The next Anderson Silva,” also known as Phillipe Nover, has been taken down 18 times in five UFC fights. In his only UFC win, which was questionable at best, he scored six takedowns himself.

Roy Nelson’s StrikeScore (38) seems absurdly low until you realize his opponents have landed 4.62 sig strikes per minute at a 53 percent clip.

Bigfoot has really struggled in his last five fights. Four out of his last five striking performances have earn negative StrikeScores.

Antonio Silva StrikeScore (Last Five Fights)

Francisco Trinaldo has the highest Rankings Momentum on the card.

Paul Felder lands almost exactly the same number of sig strikes as he absorbs. His striking differential is only plus 0.37 per minute.

Thiago Santos’ knockout lost at the hands of Gegard Mousasi dropped his UFC career StrikeScore from 279 to 212.

In his only UFC fight, Eric Spicely went zero for four on takedowns and submitted to Sam Alvey.

Godofredo Pepey has a 4-4 record in the UFC, and he gets it done almost entirely without striking. In his eight-fight career, has been outstruck 143 to 109. He has never won a fight in which he has absorbed more than 17 sig strikes.

In his last fight, Mike de la Torre stuffed 20 of Yui Chul Nam’s takedown attempts.

Despite claims that Gilbert Burns is a complete fighter, he still has a ways to outside the grappling game.

Michel Prazeres lands four takedowns per 15 minutes, but he only lands 32 percent of his attempts.

Rani Yahya is not much of a striker, but he avoid his opponent’s strikes very well.

Rani Yahya's Sig Strikes Absorbed per Minute

After winning the 2011 Shooto rookie tournament at 132-pound, Michinori Tanaka developed the reputation of a dangerous grappler. Prior to coming to the UFC, he had scored five submissions in nine fights. However, in the Octagon he has given up six submission attempts and 15 position passes on the ground.

In seven UFC fight, Jussier Formiga has been outstruck six times. The only fight in which he landed more strikes than an opponent was his three-minute submission victory over Scott Jorgensen in 2014.

Dustin Ortiz has given up 23 takedowns in seven UFC fights.

In fights that last longer than one round in the UFC, Erick Silva is 0-5.

In his only UFC fight, Luan Chagas dropped the decision despite outlanding Sergio Moraes on sig strikes 46 to 28.

Alan Patrick has absorbed over half of the sig strike attempts from his opponents in the UFC.

Stevie Ray has allowed his opponents to land only 29 percent of their sig strikes, and he has scored knockouts in two of his three fights in the UFC.

This bout will be Vicente Luque’s first bout in the UFC against a fighter who has not competed on a TUF season.

Hector Urbina has landed only 14 sig strikes in a little over 18 minutes of Octagon time.

Glacio Franca will looking for an improved defensive striking performance. In his last fight, he absorbed 6.27 sig strikes per minute and 54 percent of James Vick’s sig strike attempts.

During his collegiate wrestling days at Edinboro University, Gregor Gillespie went 152-13 and was a four-time All-American.

UFC Fight Night 90 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 7/7/2016 9:00 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 7/7/2016 9:00 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fighter with than three fights in FightMetric database

Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez
StrikeScore gives Dos Anjos the advantage in the striking battle. However, the career numbers do not tell the whole story. Over the course of his last four fights against Benson Henderson, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone, Dos Anjos has put up 342, 1026, 224 and 754 respectively.

The FightMetric database does not include stats from Alvarez’s Bellator career, so the number is composed of fights in Dream, Elite XC and the UFC. In the Octagon, he has been outstruck in all of his fights and overall 121 to 171.

Roy Nelson vs. Derrick Lewis
Nelson’s StrikeScore is even lower when you take out the knockout adjustment. It falls all the way to 13. Remember that a fighter with a score of 100 is even with his/her opponents. A large contributor to his low StrikeScore is the fact that opposition lands 53 percent of their sig strikes against him.

All of Lewis’ fights in the UFC have ended via knockout. He is extremely accurate (59 percent striking accuracy) but he also eats a lot of shots (36 percent striking defense). This fight will likely be decided by who can land the big power strikes early.

Alan Jouban vs. Belal Muhammad
From an offensive perspective, Jouban is a gifted striker. He landed 5.16 sig strikes per minute and had ended half of his UFC fights via knockout.

Muhammad is a Titan FC veteran who is making his UFC debut. He is the higher ranked fighter per Fight Matrix (53 to 79) and has respectable Rankings Momentum (6.21).

Joe Duffy vs. Mitch Clarke
Both of these fighters’ low StrikeScores stand out. Duffy’s score has not recovered from his fight against Dustin Poirier. The American Top Team product landed 72 sig strikes while Duffy only managed 37. On the other hand, Clarke has struggled in the striking department. On top of that, he has been taken down 12 times in five UFC fights.

Mike Pyle vs. Alberto Mina
Pyle is clearly the more advanced and varied striker. His StrikeScore has taken a hit as he had been knocked out in four of his last five losses. Mina has less than three fights in the UFC, so we are working with too small of a sample. He has only fought a fighter not on the UFC level and a broken down Yoshihiro Akiyama.

John Makdessi vs. Mehdi Baghdad
Over the course of his UFC career, Makdessi has proven hard to hit. Opponent’s land only 28 percent of sig strikes against him. That should make things tough for Baghdad. He managed to land only one sig strike in his UFC debut before falling via submission.

Anthony Birchak vs. Dileno Lopes
Birchak does not land at a very high percentage, but he makes up for it with volume. The end result is that he lands an impressive 6.64 sig strikes per minute.

Russell Doane vs. Pedro Munhoz
Doane is an aggressive fighter who is not afraid to come forward. That might be an issue for Munhoz. He allows 6.10 sig strikes against per minute. In his two losses to Jimmie Rivera and Raphael Assuncao, opponents landed 96 and 100 sig strikes against respectively.

Felipe Arantes vs. Jerrod Sanders.
Arantes is the rightful favorite. Sanders comes from a wrestling background and has struggled to incorporate an overall MMA game. In order to have a chance here, he will need to throw more strikes. Sanders lands 66 percent of his sig strikes, but his volume is incredible low. He lands only 0.87 sig strikes per minute.

'Wonderboy' posts highest score against Hendricks and other notes from UFC Fight Night 82

Stephen Thompson upset former champion Johny Hendricks. In the process, he registered a 464 StrikeScore. That is the highest number ever put up against Hendricks over the course of his WEC/UFC career. The 464 StrikeScore is nearly double the previous high score against Hendricks, Alex Serdyukov who put up 238 in 2009.

In a little over three minutes, Thompson landed 24 strikes at a 52 percent rate. Probably more impressively, he was able to stuff two takedown attempts from the multiple-time NCAA wrestler. It was a big night for the Wonderboy.

Roy Nelson starts slow, but turns the tide against Jared Rosholt
In the opening frame, Nelson managed to only land six significant strikes. However, in the next two rounds, he was able to settle down and pick apart Rosholt on the feet. After a -8 StrikeScore in round one, Nelson scored 187 and 227 for the final two rounds. 

Nelson vs. Rosholt StrikeScore by Round 1

OSP is boom or bust
Ovince Saint Preux utterly dominated former Strikeforce champion Rafael Feijao. Despite rolling his ankle early in the fight, he was able to earn a whopping 521 StrikeScore. Over the course of his last three fights, OSP has managed to score 200 or over in all of his victories. However, he has been forced under 100 in all of his defeats.

St. Preux Recent Career StrikeScore

Derrick Lewis is not going to decision
Lewis is 4-2 in his six-fight UFC career. All six of those fights have ended via knockout. His run is a microcosm of heavyweight MMA outside of the top-ten in 2016.

In a lot of ways, people are overlooking Lewis’ most recent victory. Grabowski is the best fighter that he has beaten to date. Damian Grabowski has a Fight Matrix Highest Quarterly Ranking (HQR) of 12. In his only other fight against a competitor with a HQR in the top 20, Matt Mitrione (13), Lewis was on the wrong side of a devastating knockout. 

Output issues for Ray Borg
On Saturday, Borg suffered his second UFC loss. For most of his career, Borg has relied on his superior grappling to control his opponents. However, Scoggins showed up better footwork and picked apart Borg on the outside. For Borg to be successful against better competition, he will need to devise a new strategy to land strikes. Over the course of his UFC career, he has struggle with output. 

On Saturday, he only landed 20 sig strikes over the course of the three-round fight. That is not a very impressive number, but it is actually close to his career high. In his previous fight against Geane Herrera, he landed 26 sig strikes.

1.31 sig strikes per minute is an extremely low rate. If he can’t get his opponents down, he should try clinching along the fence and landed from there, also known as the Randy Couture strategy. 

Updated Top Ten Striking Performances
Four performances from last weekend’s card entered the StrikeScore MMA Top Ten Striking Performances rankings. Lewis had the best score with a 1539 for his destruction of Grabowski.

RankFighterOpponentEventDateStrikeScore
1Anthony JohnsonRyan BaderUFC on Fox 181/30/20169500
2Sheldon WestcottEdgar GarciaUFC 1951/2/20163424
3Derrick LewisDamian GrabowskiUFC Fight Night 822/6/20161539
4Chris WadeMehdi BaghdadUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016590
5Rob FontJoey GomezUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016570
6Patrick CoteBen SaundersUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016547
7Rafael NatalKevin CaseyUFC on Fox 181/30/2016531
8Ovince Saint PreuxRafael FeijaoUFC Fight Night 822/6/2016521
9Stephen ThompsonJohny HendricksUFC Fight Night 822/6/2016464
10Alex WhiteArtem LobovUFC Fight Night 822/6/2016453