UFC on Fox 26 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 15 at 11:45 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 15 at 11:45 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

UFC on Fox 26 StrikeScore.png

UFC Fight Night 111 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of June 16 at 11:00 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of June 16 at 11:00 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

Rafael dos Anjos coming off lowest StrikeScore performance

When Rafael dos Anjos returns to the cage on Nov. 5 in Mexico City, he will be returning to action after one of his worst performances in the UFC. Not only did he drop the lightweight title to Eddie Alvarez, but he also registered his lowest StrikeScore in the Octagon.

Prior to facing Alvarez, Dos Anjos had won four-straight fights and put up a StrikeScore over 200 in all of them. He will need to return to form against Tony Ferguson if he wants to get back into the title picture.

UFC Fight Night 90 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 7/7/2016 9:00 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 7/7/2016 9:00 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fighter with than three fights in FightMetric database

Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez
StrikeScore gives Dos Anjos the advantage in the striking battle. However, the career numbers do not tell the whole story. Over the course of his last four fights against Benson Henderson, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone, Dos Anjos has put up 342, 1026, 224 and 754 respectively.

The FightMetric database does not include stats from Alvarez’s Bellator career, so the number is composed of fights in Dream, Elite XC and the UFC. In the Octagon, he has been outstruck in all of his fights and overall 121 to 171.

Roy Nelson vs. Derrick Lewis
Nelson’s StrikeScore is even lower when you take out the knockout adjustment. It falls all the way to 13. Remember that a fighter with a score of 100 is even with his/her opponents. A large contributor to his low StrikeScore is the fact that opposition lands 53 percent of their sig strikes against him.

All of Lewis’ fights in the UFC have ended via knockout. He is extremely accurate (59 percent striking accuracy) but he also eats a lot of shots (36 percent striking defense). This fight will likely be decided by who can land the big power strikes early.

Alan Jouban vs. Belal Muhammad
From an offensive perspective, Jouban is a gifted striker. He landed 5.16 sig strikes per minute and had ended half of his UFC fights via knockout.

Muhammad is a Titan FC veteran who is making his UFC debut. He is the higher ranked fighter per Fight Matrix (53 to 79) and has respectable Rankings Momentum (6.21).

Joe Duffy vs. Mitch Clarke
Both of these fighters’ low StrikeScores stand out. Duffy’s score has not recovered from his fight against Dustin Poirier. The American Top Team product landed 72 sig strikes while Duffy only managed 37. On the other hand, Clarke has struggled in the striking department. On top of that, he has been taken down 12 times in five UFC fights.

Mike Pyle vs. Alberto Mina
Pyle is clearly the more advanced and varied striker. His StrikeScore has taken a hit as he had been knocked out in four of his last five losses. Mina has less than three fights in the UFC, so we are working with too small of a sample. He has only fought a fighter not on the UFC level and a broken down Yoshihiro Akiyama.

John Makdessi vs. Mehdi Baghdad
Over the course of his UFC career, Makdessi has proven hard to hit. Opponent’s land only 28 percent of sig strikes against him. That should make things tough for Baghdad. He managed to land only one sig strike in his UFC debut before falling via submission.

Anthony Birchak vs. Dileno Lopes
Birchak does not land at a very high percentage, but he makes up for it with volume. The end result is that he lands an impressive 6.64 sig strikes per minute.

Russell Doane vs. Pedro Munhoz
Doane is an aggressive fighter who is not afraid to come forward. That might be an issue for Munhoz. He allows 6.10 sig strikes against per minute. In his two losses to Jimmie Rivera and Raphael Assuncao, opponents landed 96 and 100 sig strikes against respectively.

Felipe Arantes vs. Jerrod Sanders.
Arantes is the rightful favorite. Sanders comes from a wrestling background and has struggled to incorporate an overall MMA game. In order to have a chance here, he will need to throw more strikes. Sanders lands 66 percent of his sig strikes, but his volume is incredible low. He lands only 0.87 sig strikes per minute.

Predicting Rafael dos Anjos vs. Donald Cerrone with Pythagorean Expectation

In this weekend’s UFC on Fox 17 main event, lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos will look to defend his title against Donald Cerrone. It is a relatively close match up as the odds currently have Dos Anjos as a -200 favorite. 

StrikeScoreMMA.com has been publishing Fight Forecast for upcoming UFC events for the last few weeks. Fight Forecast features the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, Kountermove prices, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. 

After four events, career StrikeScore has correctly predicted the winner in 64 percent of bouts, despite only measuring striking efficiency (read about it here). The only other model to perform better over that stretch was the DraftKings prices, which have picked correctly in 66 percent of bouts.

For this main event, we are going to apply Pythagorean Expectations to the StrikeScore model. Career StrikeScore takes into account all strikes thrown and landed by a fighter and his/her opponent over the course of their career. PythagScore will look at each fight individually and give an estimate of how many fights a fighter “should” have won given their StrikeScore. This estimate should provide a more accurate representation of a fighter’s skill and accomplishment as a striker.

Pythagorean Expectation is a formula developed by Bill James. The idea is to compare a baseball team’s actual winning percentage with their Pythagorean winning percentage. If there is a great variance between the two, than the team was either extremely lucky or unlucky. The same can be applied to MMA. If a fighter has lower PythagScore than their winning percentage, it is possible they were getting gift decisions or just plain lucky. The basic formula is below.

from Wikipedia

from Wikipedia

The formula has been adapted for use in other sports by using a different exponent. Once a larger sample of data has been culled, StrikeScoreMMA will likely also adjust the exponent as well.

The following charts show the StrikeScore for all of Dos Anjos’ and Cerrone’s fights in the Fightmetric database.

After running the numbers through the formula, Dos Anjos has a 97 PythagScore while Cerrone’s score comes in at 57. The new measure picks the same favorite as career StrikeScore (Dos Anjos 166 to Cerrone 125). However, PythagScore has Dos Anjos as a much bigger favorite.