UFC on Fox 26 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 15 at 11:45 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 15 at 11:45 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

UFC on Fox 26 StrikeScore.png

Luan Chagas finishes with highest StrikeScore at UFC 212

Luan Chagas was entirely dominant on Saturday night. He landed 95 significant strikes (9.69 per minute) and absorbed only 32 from Jimmy Wallhead. His 497 StrikeScore narrowly edged out Matthew Lopez (410) for the most efficient striking performance of the night. While Lopez landed at a higher rate and with a better percentage, Chagas performed better compared to his opponent. Since StrikeScore measures how a fighter differentiates himself/herself for an opponent, Chagas took the higher score.

UFC 212 Fight Forecast

As you can see below, both Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz both have relatively low StrikeScores. Gadelha's career number currently stands at 96, while Kowalkiewicz's score is all the way down at 69. How could two accomplished strikers have such low scores? The answer is Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Without their fights against the champion listed, Gadelha bounces up to 224, and Kowalkiewicz ends up with a 146. As you can see in the following chart, both fighters struggled against Jedrzejczyk.

Gadelha StrikeScore

Kowalkiewicz StrikeScore

Fight Forecast
Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of June 2 at 10:30 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of June 2 at 10:30 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

UFC Fight Night 107 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of March 17 at 9:00 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of March 17 at 9:00 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 4/1/2015 to 1/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

Fight Forecast for UFC on Fox 19

Saturday night the UFC returns with UFC on Fox 19. The event takes place at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla. Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 4/15/2016 12:45 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 4/15/2016 12:45 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

On Fox 19 Fight Forecast Screenshot.png

Notes:

Lost Fight Pass Fight
In his MMA debut back in 2002, Glover Teixeira fell via knockout to Eric Schwartz. This remains his only knockout defeat of his career. The fight, as well as the rest of WEC 3 is missing from UFC Fight Pass.

Beneil Dariush’s last time out…

Power Issues
Over the course of his UFC career, Court McGee has landed 5.41 sig strikes per minute, which is a hair below tenth-best all time. However, he has never scored a knockout in the Octagon.

Always looking for the finish
John Dodson has gone 2-2 in fights that go the distance in the UFC. In fights that finish inside the distance, he is 4-0.

Contrasting Grapplers
Obviously Rose Namajunas will be looking to finish the fight via submission. During her three-fight UFC career, she has picked up both of her wins with rear-naked choke subs. Tecia Torres also likes the fight on the floor, but mostly to work from the top. She has average 1.13 takedown attempts per minute in the UFC, but she has only be able to land three of them. However, in their first fight, Torres was mostly interested in standing up.

Can you say top-position grappler?
Hacran Dias has won all of his UFC fight via decision, and he has never landed more sig strikes than his opponent in an individual fight.

Elusive for a Reason
In two UFC fights, Islam Makhachev has absorbed only 10 sig strikes. With that being said, Adriano Martins only needed to land three to finish the Degestani fighter at UFC 192.

StrikeScore’s KO Factor at Work
Cezar Ferreira has been knocked out in three of his seven bouts in the UFC. Without the knockout losses, his StrikeScore would be 80, but with the KO penalty it falls all the way to 37. Oluwale Bamgbose’s UFC career StrikeScore jumped from -41 to 111 after he finished Daniel Sarafian at UFC Fight Night 83.

Huge performances from Camozzi, Brunson and Bamgbose and other post-fight notes from UFC Fight Night 83 and Bellator 149

Going into the event, UFC Fight Night 83 did not look like a very impactful cards. Several of the matches were changed or removed, and it was lacking the regular amount of star power. Well, a few of the fighters made up for the lack of star power with striking power. Four competitors from Sunday night were good enough to crack the Top Ten Most Efficient Striking Performances of 2016 list. One of those performances, Chris Camozzi's brutual finish of Joe Riggs, tied Anthony Johnson's knockout of Anthony Johnson for best of the year so far.

RankFighterOpponentEventDateStrikeScore
1Anthony JohnsonRyan BaderUFC on Fox 181/30/20169500
1Chris CamozziJoe RiggsUFC Fight Night 832/21/20169500
3Derek BrunsonRoan CarneiroUFC Fight Night 832/21/20166800
4Oluwale BamgboseDaniel SarafianUFC Fight Night 832/21/20164800
5Sheldon WestcottEdgar GarciaUFC 1951/2/20163424
6Derrick LewisDamian GrabowskiUFC Fight Night 822/6/20161539
7Chris WadeMehdi BaghdadUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016590
8Dennis BermudezTatsuya KawajiriUFC Fight Night 832/21/2016574
9Rob FontJoey GomezUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016570
10Patrick CoteBen SaundersUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016547

Three fighters fail to land a single strike
Camozzi, Derek Brunson and Oluwale Bamgbose earned exceptional marks with their brutal first-round domination. However, their opponent's total lack of offense also contributed to the high scores. Riggs and Sarafian, like Bader at UFC on Fox 18, were finished without even attempting a strike. Roan Carneiro at least tried to land strikes, but he went 0 for 13 before ending of the ground and being dispatched.

Third round of Anthony Smith vs. Leonardo Guimaraes
First, let's preface this with the fact that Smith took this fight on about six days notice. With that being said, he appeared to entirely shutdown and refuse to fight after building a two round lead against Guimaraes. In the final stanza, Smith was more than happy to grab wrist control and hold on for dear life. Guimaraes is not without blame, since a better strategy would have likely lead to a knockout finish. However, rounds like the third round of this fight need to scored 10-8!

In the third round, Smith landed only six sig strikes, while Guimaraes landed 39. The StrikeScore differential was 747 to -34 in favor of Guimaraes. To put that into perspective, if a fighter scored a 747 StrikeScore over the course of a whole fight, he/she would have the seventh best score of the entire year.

Anthony Smith vs. Leonardo Guimaraes StrikeScore by Round

Decision in Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Marion Reneau
This was not a good decision. Of the media scorecards tracked by MMADecisions.com, 16 went for Reneau and only one went for Evans-Smith. StrikeScore, of course, agrees with the majority. Two of the three judges even had round one for Evans-Smith, which is dreadful. As previously stated, this was not a good decision.

Marion Reneau vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith StrikeScore per Round

Lauren Murphy's comeback in terms of StrikeScore
Out of the gate, it looked like Kelly Faszholz was going to pick up a pretty sizeable upset in her UFC debut. However, Murphy stayed true to her gameplan and ended up finishing the bout in the finals seconds of the fight. FightMetric's Michael Carroll confirmed on Twitter that this was the fourth latest finish in a three-round fight.

Lauren Murphy vs. Kelly Faszholz StrikeScore per Round

The Oddity of Kimbo Slice vs. Dada 5000
It was a strange fight to say the least. Neither fighter had the lunges to go more than two minutes, but the fight ended up going over 11. If you look at the numbers in a vacum, it appears as if Kimbo actually had a pretty good performance. He finished with a 360 StrikeScore and landed over five strikes per minute.

With that being said, the only reason Kimbo's number look passable is how miserable Dada 5000's performance was. In the first two rounds, he absorbed 72 percent of Kimbo's strikes and landed only 38 percent of his own. These numbers are the unofficial live numbers from the Bellator app provided by CompuStrike. Live numbers tend to run higher, and CompuStrike percentages are almost always higher than FightMetric, because they do not exclude "insignificant strikes."

Kimbo Slice vs. Dada 5000 StrikeScore by Round

Big night for Derek Campos
Lost in the shuffle of Kimbo, Dada, Royce and Ken was a career performance for Campos. Going into his fight against Melvin Guillard, he was riding a two-fight winning streak and had failed to make it out of the first round since 2014. Last Saturday, he caught Guillard early and finished the fight in the second round. He finished with a 318 to -57 StrikeScore advantage. His Fight Matrix ranking jumped up a whopping 112 ranking spots to 46.