UFC Fight Night 120 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 11 at 11:30 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 11 at 11:30 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

Luan Chagas finishes with highest StrikeScore at UFC 212

Luan Chagas was entirely dominant on Saturday night. He landed 95 significant strikes (9.69 per minute) and absorbed only 32 from Jimmy Wallhead. His 497 StrikeScore narrowly edged out Matthew Lopez (410) for the most efficient striking performance of the night. While Lopez landed at a higher rate and with a better percentage, Chagas performed better compared to his opponent. Since StrikeScore measures how a fighter differentiates himself/herself for an opponent, Chagas took the higher score.

UFC 212 Fight Forecast

As you can see below, both Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz both have relatively low StrikeScores. Gadelha's career number currently stands at 96, while Kowalkiewicz's score is all the way down at 69. How could two accomplished strikers have such low scores? The answer is Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Without their fights against the champion listed, Gadelha bounces up to 224, and Kowalkiewicz ends up with a 146. As you can see in the following chart, both fighters struggled against Jedrzejczyk.

Gadelha StrikeScore

Kowalkiewicz StrikeScore

Fight Forecast
Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of June 2 at 10:30 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of June 2 at 10:30 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

UFC on Fox 23 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Jan. 27 at 9:30 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Jan. 27 at 9:30 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 4/1/2015 to 1/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

2017 Prediction Tracker:
StrikeScore: 3-2 66%
UFC Fantasy: 7-5 58%
Tapology: 17-5 77%
Odds: 11-4 73%
DraftKings Value: 8-2 80%
DraftKings Points: 7-4 64%
Fight Matrix: 12-8 60%
Rankings Momentum: 8-9 47%

UFC Fight Night 96 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Sept. 30 at 1:35 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Sept. 30 at 1:35 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

John Lineker lands a knockout for every 118.8 sig strikes, while John Dodson lands one every 67.4 sig strikes.

Dodson allows 3.40 sig strikes per minute by his opponents, if we removed the two fights against Demetrious Johnson, that number falls all the way to 2.61

Will Brooks' StrikeScore only includes his bout against Satoru Kitaoka in Dream and his win over Ross Pearson in his UFC debut.

Alex Oliveira relies on his wrestling as he lands 2.48 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he only lands 30 percent of his attempts.

Josh Burkman has only won one of his last eight fights in the UFC. In those fights, he has landed 327 sig strikes and absorbed 349 during that span.

Zak Ottow’s peak Fight Matrix ranking was #181 on 7/1/2015. He is currently ranked as the #211 welterweight.

In his last outing, Louis Smolka put up a 2194 StrikeScore over Ben Nguyen, which is one of the top scores this year.

Hacran Dias has fought every possible minute of his UFC career, 90 minutes.

Andre Fili has alternated wins and losses in the UFC since joining the promotion in 2013.

In his first three UFC bouts, Walt Harris had been knocked out twice and outstruck 68 to 41. He finally broke through against Cody East and picked up his first win at UFC 197.

K-Taro gets it done without striking. In the UFC, he has been outstruck by more than a full sig strike per minute, 2.46 vs 3.74.

In his two UFC fight, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos has been taken down nine times, but he has absorbed only 5 sig strikes on the ground.

Nate Marquardt has fallen on hard times...

In his UFC return, Tamdan McCrory was a +125 underdog and won. In his next bout, he was a 1-65 favorite and lost.

Jonathan Wilson absorbed 8.82 sig strikes per minute against Henrique da Silva in his last fight. That defense will need to improve to be successful in the UFC.

Ion Cutelaba struggled mightily in the UFC debut against Misha Cirkunov. He was outstruck 44 to 24 and eventually submitted in the third round.

Cody East’s quarterly generated historical ranking fell to #73 for the last quarter. He had been in the top 50 since 2013.

During his run through the 2012 NJCAA wrestling bracket, Curtis Blaydes had a 80.74 WPE.

In her UFC debut, Kelly Faszholz was leading Lauren Murphy in terms of sig strikes 70 to 57 through the first two rounds. In the third, Faszholz landed only 6 compared to 38 for Murphy, and she fell via knockout.

Ketlen Vieira is an undefeated fighter out of Brazil. She has five finishes in six fights. 

UFC 198 Fight Forecast

On Saturday, the UFC returns with UFC 198. In the main event, heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum defends his title against Stipe Miocic. 

One of the most interesting aspects of Werdum’s MMA career has been his continual improvement. After beginning his career as a one-dimensional grappler, he has morphed into a fighter capable of knocking out Mark Hunt and forcing Cain Velasquez to shoot for takedowns.

Werdum’s improvement is most noteworthy in terms of his ability to land significant strikes. During his current UFC run, the Brazilian is landing 5.61 sig strikes per minute. To put that number into perspective, that is only slightly behind the UFC career number for bantamweight slugger John Lineker (5.62).

Not only is that an impressive level of striking output for a heavyweight, but it also more than double the number of sig strikes per minute Werdum was landing during his runs in Pride FC and Strikeforce as well as his first stint in the UFC.

Earlier in his career, Werdum would have most likely struggled against a guy he could not drag to the ground. However, now he appears more than capable in multiple facets of MMA. No matter what happens on Saturday against Stipe Miocic, more fighters should follow the Werdum model and continue to craft their fight game.

Fight Forecast
StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 5/13/2016 4:30 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 5/13/2016 4:30 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. The stat provides a measure of how a fighter has improved or declined in terms of the Fight Matrix rankings over the past two years.

*Fighters with less than 3 bouts in FightMetric database

*Fighters with less than 3 bouts in FightMetric database

Other Notes:

Near Lock for Fight of the Night
Rob Font lands 5.55 sig strikes per minute and has finished all of his bouts in the UFC by knockout. Standing across the cage will be John Lineker who lands 5.62 sig strikes per minute has scored four knockouts in nine UFC fights. Expect fireworks.

Just Scrap
Hawaiian MMA pioneer B.J. Penn always promoted the "Just Scrap" philosophy. His fellow islander Yancy Medeiros seems to be a true believer. Over the course of his UFC career, he has absorbed over half of his opponents' strikes and nearly eaten a strike for every one that he lands.

Brazilian Ironman
There might not be much fanfare, but Francisco Trinaldo is riding a five-fight winning streak. On Saturday, he will fight in the UFC for the 13th time. Of his 13 fights, 10 will have taken place in his native Brazil.

Marquardt Decline
We wrote about the decline of Nate Marquardt prior to his last bout. Even though we seem to have jumped the gun, it is still nearing the end of his career. Prior to 2013, he had fought 44 times and suffered only one knockout. Since 2013, he has fought seven times and been knocked out thrice.

Cyborg World
The StrikeScore list above for Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos is based only on her Strikeforce and Elite XC bouts. It would actually be much higher if it included data from Invicta FC. In her five bouts for the promotion, she has picked up knockouts in all five. Her cumulative fight time was only a little bit over 32 minutes with 19 coming in her longest fight against Marloes Coenen.