One Championship: Light of a Nation Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast is a recurring series at that provides a stats based preview of upcoming events. Since striking stats are not available outside the UFC, we need to get a bit creative. The following uses Fight Matrix rankings, peak rank, Tapology user votes, betting odds and Rankings Momentum.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be includedTapology scores are as of June 29 at 2:45 p.m. ET. As of June 29 at 2:45 p.m. ET there were no posted betting odds. If odds are available, the Fight Forecast will be updated.

*Fight Forecast was updated at 8:47 a.m. ET to include betting odds for the main and co-main event.

One Championship 42 Fight Forecast

One Championship 43 takes place May 6 at the Singapore Indoor Stadium in Kallang, Singapore. The main card will air live via iPPV on at 7am ET on Friday morning.

The event took a bit of a hit when middleweight champion Vitaly Bigdash fell out of the main event with an injury. He had been set to defend his title for the first time against Alexey Butorin. The last time Bigdash was in the One cage, fans witnessed one of the best fights of 2015.

With that being said, it is still a two title fight card. Angela Lee will face off against Mei Yamaguchi for the inaugural women’s atomweight title. Also Roger Gracie and Michal Pasternak are set to compete for the light heavyweight title.

Angela Lee takes a big step up in competition
The promotion is putting a lot of steam behind Lee, and that is probably a good idea. She has been dynamic in her first five fights showing off a slick grappling game and even catching a twister. However, Lee is taking a big step up in competition. Her first five opponents have a combined 10-16 record. Yamaguchi is a bit of a journeywoman. However, since dropping down to atomweight in 2014, she has gone 3-0 and climbed up the Fight Matrix rankings from 11th to 3rd.

Roger Gracie is not a point grappler
During his competitive grappling career, Gracie not only won a ton of matches, but he also scored a lot of this submission. At the 2005 ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championships, he won his weight and the absolute division with eight submissions an accomplishment that has not been duplicated to date. In fact, according to, he scored 61 submissions in 75 career wins. This,in addition to his last name, always inspired a lot of hype among MMA fans. 

This has somewhat carried over into his MMA career. He has scored five submissions in seven career wins. However, he has fallen to the two best fighters he has faced: Muhammed Lawal and Tim Kennedy. Questions will remain about his dedication to fighting, but at this level, he should clean up.

Battle of Unsung Heroes
After dropping his MMA debut to Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto in 2006, Jadambaa Narantungalag mostly dropped out of the major MMA scene. He returned four years later and scored Fight Matrix most lopsided upset of the year over Akihiro Gono. Since then, he has been a player in the Asian featherweight fight scene. Last November he lost the One featherweight title to Marat Gafurov and is looking to get back on track.

Often billed as Yamamoto’s protege, Boku has really found a home for himself late in his career in One Championship. He won the promotion’s inaugural lightweight title in 2012. Since dropping to featherweight last year, he has gone 3-0. However, the competition has not been the stiffest, which explains his 181 ranking.

Fight Forecast
For UFC events, puts together a Fight Forecast. The preview shows the fighter's StrikeScore, betting odds, fantasy stats and so on. However, there are not fantasy numbers available for non-UFC events and striking stats are rarely available. So, using Fight Matrix numbers, we have come up with the following Fight Forecast for One Championship 42. The table below shows the fighter's current ranking, Rankings Momentum, peak ranking and the date of the quarter in which the fighter had their peak ranking.

In this case, the period use for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. Betting odds are from 5Dimes as of May 5 at 4:00 PM EST.

*Ranking at Strawweight **Ranking at Middleweight

*Ranking at Strawweight
**Ranking at Middleweight