Luan Chagas finishes with highest StrikeScore at UFC 212

Luan Chagas was entirely dominant on Saturday night. He landed 95 significant strikes (9.69 per minute) and absorbed only 32 from Jimmy Wallhead. His 497 StrikeScore narrowly edged out Matthew Lopez (410) for the most efficient striking performance of the night. While Lopez landed at a higher rate and with a better percentage, Chagas performed better compared to his opponent. Since StrikeScore measures how a fighter differentiates himself/herself for an opponent, Chagas took the higher score.

UFC 212 Fight Forecast

As you can see below, both Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz both have relatively low StrikeScores. Gadelha's career number currently stands at 96, while Kowalkiewicz's score is all the way down at 69. How could two accomplished strikers have such low scores? The answer is Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Without their fights against the champion listed, Gadelha bounces up to 224, and Kowalkiewicz ends up with a 146. As you can see in the following chart, both fighters struggled against Jedrzejczyk.

Gadelha StrikeScore

Kowalkiewicz StrikeScore

Fight Forecast
Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of June 2 at 10:30 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of June 2 at 10:30 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

UFC Fight Night 95 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Sept. 23 at 12:15 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Sept. 23 at 12:15 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fighter with fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

Cyborg has landed seven knockouts in her eight UFC/Strikeforce/EliteXC career. The only fighter to go the distance with her was Yoko Takahashi in 2008.

Lina Lansberg is undefeated since 2012 and the #7 women’s featherweight per Fight Matrix. The only fighters ranked above her who are not signed with Bellator are Charmaine Tweet and Megan Anderson. Read more about the issues with finding suitable women's featherweights here.

Excluding bouts against T.J. Dillashaw, Renan Barao has outlanded his opponents 485 to 354. Against Dillashaw, he was been outstruck 257 to 126.

“The next Anderson Silva,” also known as Phillipe Nover, has been taken down 18 times in five UFC fights. In his only UFC win, which was questionable at best, he scored six takedowns himself.

Roy Nelson’s StrikeScore (38) seems absurdly low until you realize his opponents have landed 4.62 sig strikes per minute at a 53 percent clip.

Bigfoot has really struggled in his last five fights. Four out of his last five striking performances have earn negative StrikeScores.

Antonio Silva StrikeScore (Last Five Fights)

Francisco Trinaldo has the highest Rankings Momentum on the card.

Paul Felder lands almost exactly the same number of sig strikes as he absorbs. His striking differential is only plus 0.37 per minute.

Thiago Santos’ knockout lost at the hands of Gegard Mousasi dropped his UFC career StrikeScore from 279 to 212.

In his only UFC fight, Eric Spicely went zero for four on takedowns and submitted to Sam Alvey.

Godofredo Pepey has a 4-4 record in the UFC, and he gets it done almost entirely without striking. In his eight-fight career, has been outstruck 143 to 109. He has never won a fight in which he has absorbed more than 17 sig strikes.

In his last fight, Mike de la Torre stuffed 20 of Yui Chul Nam’s takedown attempts.

Despite claims that Gilbert Burns is a complete fighter, he still has a ways to outside the grappling game.

Michel Prazeres lands four takedowns per 15 minutes, but he only lands 32 percent of his attempts.

Rani Yahya is not much of a striker, but he avoid his opponent’s strikes very well.

Rani Yahya's Sig Strikes Absorbed per Minute

After winning the 2011 Shooto rookie tournament at 132-pound, Michinori Tanaka developed the reputation of a dangerous grappler. Prior to coming to the UFC, he had scored five submissions in nine fights. However, in the Octagon he has given up six submission attempts and 15 position passes on the ground.

In seven UFC fight, Jussier Formiga has been outstruck six times. The only fight in which he landed more strikes than an opponent was his three-minute submission victory over Scott Jorgensen in 2014.

Dustin Ortiz has given up 23 takedowns in seven UFC fights.

In fights that last longer than one round in the UFC, Erick Silva is 0-5.

In his only UFC fight, Luan Chagas dropped the decision despite outlanding Sergio Moraes on sig strikes 46 to 28.

Alan Patrick has absorbed over half of the sig strike attempts from his opponents in the UFC.

Stevie Ray has allowed his opponents to land only 29 percent of their sig strikes, and he has scored knockouts in two of his three fights in the UFC.

This bout will be Vicente Luque’s first bout in the UFC against a fighter who has not competed on a TUF season.

Hector Urbina has landed only 14 sig strikes in a little over 18 minutes of Octagon time.

Glacio Franca will looking for an improved defensive striking performance. In his last fight, he absorbed 6.27 sig strikes per minute and 54 percent of James Vick’s sig strike attempts.

During his collegiate wrestling days at Edinboro University, Gregor Gillespie went 152-13 and was a four-time All-American.

UFC 198 Fight Forecast

On Saturday, the UFC returns with UFC 198. In the main event, heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum defends his title against Stipe Miocic. 

One of the most interesting aspects of Werdum’s MMA career has been his continual improvement. After beginning his career as a one-dimensional grappler, he has morphed into a fighter capable of knocking out Mark Hunt and forcing Cain Velasquez to shoot for takedowns.

Werdum’s improvement is most noteworthy in terms of his ability to land significant strikes. During his current UFC run, the Brazilian is landing 5.61 sig strikes per minute. To put that number into perspective, that is only slightly behind the UFC career number for bantamweight slugger John Lineker (5.62).

Not only is that an impressive level of striking output for a heavyweight, but it also more than double the number of sig strikes per minute Werdum was landing during his runs in Pride FC and Strikeforce as well as his first stint in the UFC.

Earlier in his career, Werdum would have most likely struggled against a guy he could not drag to the ground. However, now he appears more than capable in multiple facets of MMA. No matter what happens on Saturday against Stipe Miocic, more fighters should follow the Werdum model and continue to craft their fight game.

Fight Forecast
StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 5/13/2016 4:30 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 5/13/2016 4:30 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. The stat provides a measure of how a fighter has improved or declined in terms of the Fight Matrix rankings over the past two years.

*Fighters with less than 3 bouts in FightMetric database

*Fighters with less than 3 bouts in FightMetric database

Other Notes:

Near Lock for Fight of the Night
Rob Font lands 5.55 sig strikes per minute and has finished all of his bouts in the UFC by knockout. Standing across the cage will be John Lineker who lands 5.62 sig strikes per minute has scored four knockouts in nine UFC fights. Expect fireworks.

Just Scrap
Hawaiian MMA pioneer B.J. Penn always promoted the "Just Scrap" philosophy. His fellow islander Yancy Medeiros seems to be a true believer. Over the course of his UFC career, he has absorbed over half of his opponents' strikes and nearly eaten a strike for every one that he lands.

Brazilian Ironman
There might not be much fanfare, but Francisco Trinaldo is riding a five-fight winning streak. On Saturday, he will fight in the UFC for the 13th time. Of his 13 fights, 10 will have taken place in his native Brazil.

Marquardt Decline
We wrote about the decline of Nate Marquardt prior to his last bout. Even though we seem to have jumped the gun, it is still nearing the end of his career. Prior to 2013, he had fought 44 times and suffered only one knockout. Since 2013, he has fought seven times and been knocked out thrice.

Cyborg World
The StrikeScore list above for Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos is based only on her Strikeforce and Elite XC bouts. It would actually be much higher if it included data from Invicta FC. In her five bouts for the promotion, she has picked up knockouts in all five. Her cumulative fight time was only a little bit over 32 minutes with 19 coming in her longest fight against Marloes Coenen.