Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red.
StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.
Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 7/13/2016 10:10 AM EST)
DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.
Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.
In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included.
After the dust settled on UFC 195, StrikeScore agree with the majority of media members with a 48-47 scorecard for Carlos Condit. The following graph shows Condit vs. Lawler over five rounds.
The UFC currently lists an outdated version of the judging criteria on its website. The site currently listed the definition of effective striking as “Effective striking is judged by determining the total number of legal strikes landed by a contestant.”
This definition was replaced by the Association of Boxing Commissions in 2012. The following definition is as follows.
As you can see, there is a pretty sizable difference between these two definitions. The one listed on the website would easily hand the decision to Condit, since he clearly out-landed Lawler in all five rounds. However, the updated definition is closer to the general connotation of “Effective Striking.”
Stipe Miocic’s knack for finishing fights
Miocic dispatched former champion Andrei Arlovski in only 54 seconds. For a lot of fighters this would likely set a new personal best for fastest finish. Miocic is not one of those guys. The 54 second win was only his fourth fastest in his career. The following table shows Miocic’s five fastest finishes.
StrikeScore per round scoring in controversial decisions
First, let’s preface this. StrikeScore only take into account striking, so it can’t and shouldn’t be used as the only criteria to pick a winner. However, striking is a large part of MMA, so it is interesting to look at controversial decisions compared to the judges’ cards. Check out the invaluable MMADecisions.com for judges and media cards for all events.
Kyle Noke vs. Alex Morono
Official Winner: Morono (29-28, 29- 28, 27-30)
Media Winner: Noke (16) Morono (1)
Nina Ansaroff vs. Justine Kish
Official Winner: Kish (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
Media Winner: Ansaroff (12) Kish (5)
Judges favor Michinori Tanaka’s inaccurate striking offense in Round 1
Save for round two, which was clearly Tanaka’s best round, the former Shooto Rookie MVP was out-struck by former Bellator champion Joe Soto. However, two of the three judges gave him the nod. This is likely due to Tanaka’s output advantage in the first round. Soto landed 11 punches to Tanaka’s 7, but Tanaka threw nearly twice as many strikes (34 to 17).
Career night for Sheldon Westcott
Westcott came out of nowhere to blast Edgar Garcia in the first round of the night’s first fight. He landed 33 sig strikes and only absorbed one. The performance netted him a 3424 StrikeScore, which is by far his career high. In his two previous UFC outings, against Pawel Pawlak and Elias Theodorou, he scored 34 and -124 respectively.