UFC Fight Night 118 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 20 at 9:15 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 20 at 9:15 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

UFC Fight Night 96 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Sept. 30 at 1:35 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Sept. 30 at 1:35 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

John Lineker lands a knockout for every 118.8 sig strikes, while John Dodson lands one every 67.4 sig strikes.

Dodson allows 3.40 sig strikes per minute by his opponents, if we removed the two fights against Demetrious Johnson, that number falls all the way to 2.61

Will Brooks' StrikeScore only includes his bout against Satoru Kitaoka in Dream and his win over Ross Pearson in his UFC debut.

Alex Oliveira relies on his wrestling as he lands 2.48 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he only lands 30 percent of his attempts.

Josh Burkman has only won one of his last eight fights in the UFC. In those fights, he has landed 327 sig strikes and absorbed 349 during that span.

Zak Ottow’s peak Fight Matrix ranking was #181 on 7/1/2015. He is currently ranked as the #211 welterweight.

In his last outing, Louis Smolka put up a 2194 StrikeScore over Ben Nguyen, which is one of the top scores this year.

Hacran Dias has fought every possible minute of his UFC career, 90 minutes.

Andre Fili has alternated wins and losses in the UFC since joining the promotion in 2013.

In his first three UFC bouts, Walt Harris had been knocked out twice and outstruck 68 to 41. He finally broke through against Cody East and picked up his first win at UFC 197.

K-Taro gets it done without striking. In the UFC, he has been outstruck by more than a full sig strike per minute, 2.46 vs 3.74.

In his two UFC fight, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos has been taken down nine times, but he has absorbed only 5 sig strikes on the ground.

Nate Marquardt has fallen on hard times...

In his UFC return, Tamdan McCrory was a +125 underdog and won. In his next bout, he was a 1-65 favorite and lost.

Jonathan Wilson absorbed 8.82 sig strikes per minute against Henrique da Silva in his last fight. That defense will need to improve to be successful in the UFC.

Ion Cutelaba struggled mightily in the UFC debut against Misha Cirkunov. He was outstruck 44 to 24 and eventually submitted in the third round.

Cody East’s quarterly generated historical ranking fell to #73 for the last quarter. He had been in the top 50 since 2013.

During his run through the 2012 NJCAA wrestling bracket, Curtis Blaydes had a 80.74 WPE.

In her UFC debut, Kelly Faszholz was leading Lauren Murphy in terms of sig strikes 70 to 57 through the first two rounds. In the third, Faszholz landed only 6 compared to 38 for Murphy, and she fell via knockout.

Ketlen Vieira is an undefeated fighter out of Brazil. She has five finishes in six fights. 

UFC 199 Fight Forecast

In the main event of UFC 199, Luke Rockhold will look to defend his middleweight title against Michael Bisping. The two faced off for the first time at UFC Fight Night 55. On that night, Rockhold scored a second-round guillotine choke submission. In addition to the submission finish, Rockhold had the edge in the striking game. He finished with a 225 SS+, while Bisping had only a 30.

Not only did Rockhold out-perform Bisping in the striking game, he was also not at his best. His 225 SS+ performance is actually below his average (302) over his last 10 fights.

Bisping also performed below his average. While Rockhold was 77 points under, Bisping was 109 points below his average score.

With news breaking that Rockhold might not be a 100 percent due to a knee injury, Bisping might become a more attractive underdog. However, from a striking perspective at least, Rockhold has already proven that he can win without being at his best.

Dominick Cruz is a favorite across the board
If we look at the new StrikeScore Composite Prediction, Cruz is a huge favorite over his rival Urijah Faber. The Composite prediction is an average of the scaled metrics including StrikeScore, UFC Fantasy, Tapology, betting odds, DraftKings and Fight Matrix. Cruz is the favorite 73 to 27 percent.

Scaled Cruz vs. Faber III Predicitions

Fight Forecast
Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 6/3/2016 3:00 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 6/3/2016 3:00 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database **Ranking at welterweight ^Ranking at bantamweight ^^Ranking at light heavyweight

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database
**Ranking at welterweight
^Ranking at bantamweight
^^Ranking at light heavyweight