UFC 217 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 3 at 10:30 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 3 at 10:30 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

Dominick Reyes scores highest StrikeScore at UFC Fight Night 112

In his UFC debut, Dominick Reyes totally dominated Joachim Christensen. He landed 13 significant strikes while absorbing only one, and he finished the fight in the first round. StrikeScore awarded him a 1545 StrikeScore, which was by far the highest for the event. Sig strike and accuracy numbers from FightMetric.

UFC Fight Night 112 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of June 23 at 9:15 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of June 23 at 9:15 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

Fewer than 3 fights in the FightMetric database

Fewer than 3 fights in the FightMetric database

Using the information above StrikeScore uses an Excel Solver tool to calculate the best possible DraftKings lineups using each different criterion. The following table shows the best lineup based on the criteria. For the StrikeScore team, fighters with fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database are not considered. For the DraftKings Points team, fighters without previous UFC fights are not considered. Odds/Finish is the average of a fighter's odds to win and his/her odds to finish the first inside the distance. Any advice offered as part of Fight Forecast is the opinion of the website. With that, StrikeScore is not responsible for the success of the article in recommending specific players to readers.

UFC Fight Night 105 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Feb. 173 at 3:15 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Feb. 17 at 3:15 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 4/1/2015 to 1/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

UFC 207 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 30 at 10:45 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 30 at 10:45 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2015 to 10/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

UFC 200 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 7/9/2016 1:25 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 7/9/2016 1:25 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

Miesha Tate vs. Amanda Nunes
Tate has come a long way as a fighter, but statistically she is not much of a striker. A 59 StrikeScore is well below replacement level. In two of her last three fights against Holly Holm and Sara McMann, Tate was able to pull out the victory despite struggling on the feet. She will need to do the same here. Nunes’ issue on the feet is defense as she allows opponents to land 53 percent of their strikes against her. However, on the offensive side of the striking game, she is very effective. She lands 3.67 sig strikes per minute at a 50 percent clip, and she has finished half of her UFC fights via knockout.

Brock Lesnar vs. Mark Hunt
If you jumped into a time machine and headed towards 2009, you might be incredibly shocked to find that Hunt is a betting favorite over Lesnar. At the time, the gargantuan heavyweight champion had defeated Heath Herring, Randy Couture and Frank Mir and showed only a slight weakness, undeveloped submission defense. However, after UFC 100, Lesnar finished his initial UFC run with a 1-2 record and gave birth to the “he does not like to get hit narrative.”

When Lesnar was not able to get fights to the ground he struggled. As you can see below, his number of ground strikes fell off a cliff over his last three fights. 

With that being said, Lesnar’s biggest strength as a fighter has always been his knowledge of his own limitations. He knows that striking on the feet is not his game. Against Herring, he did not even try to throw the hooks in when the scrambler gave up his back. Lesnar knows his path to victory is to avoid huge shots on the feet, get takedowns and throw power shots from the top. That is why his career striking accuracy (73 percent) is so high and why he lands 3.57 sig strikes per minute.

The question in this fight will be whether the former University of Minnesota wrestler can get those takedowns. Next week he turns 39 years old, and he is 16 years removed from his amateur wrestling career. On the other hand, Hunt seems to become a more well rounded fighter the longer his career goes. With the exception of his fight against Stipe Miocic, the former kickboxer has looked actually hard to take down. However, that is a big exception.

Daniel Cormier vs. Anderson Silva
With Silva coming into this fight on very late notice, very few people are expecting him to pull off the upset. Considering Cormier’s wrestling prowess, his best path to victory would likely be landing a huge power strike and scoring a knockout finish. The adage is that power is the last thing to leave a fighter. However, Silva seems to be in the midsts of a power drain. Of the 38 fights tracked by FightMetric, “The Spider” has been to decision only 10 times. Against Nick Diaz (108) and Michael Bisping (75) Silva landed over 70 strikes without scoring a knockout for only the second and third time in his career.

Anderson Silva Most Sig Strikes Landed in Decision

Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar
Flashback to the striking battle in their first encounter at UFC 156

StrikeScore for Aldo vs. Edgar I

'Wonderboy' posts highest score against Hendricks and other notes from UFC Fight Night 82

Stephen Thompson upset former champion Johny Hendricks. In the process, he registered a 464 StrikeScore. That is the highest number ever put up against Hendricks over the course of his WEC/UFC career. The 464 StrikeScore is nearly double the previous high score against Hendricks, Alex Serdyukov who put up 238 in 2009.

In a little over three minutes, Thompson landed 24 strikes at a 52 percent rate. Probably more impressively, he was able to stuff two takedown attempts from the multiple-time NCAA wrestler. It was a big night for the Wonderboy.

Roy Nelson starts slow, but turns the tide against Jared Rosholt
In the opening frame, Nelson managed to only land six significant strikes. However, in the next two rounds, he was able to settle down and pick apart Rosholt on the feet. After a -8 StrikeScore in round one, Nelson scored 187 and 227 for the final two rounds. 

Nelson vs. Rosholt StrikeScore by Round 1

OSP is boom or bust
Ovince Saint Preux utterly dominated former Strikeforce champion Rafael Feijao. Despite rolling his ankle early in the fight, he was able to earn a whopping 521 StrikeScore. Over the course of his last three fights, OSP has managed to score 200 or over in all of his victories. However, he has been forced under 100 in all of his defeats.

St. Preux Recent Career StrikeScore

Derrick Lewis is not going to decision
Lewis is 4-2 in his six-fight UFC career. All six of those fights have ended via knockout. His run is a microcosm of heavyweight MMA outside of the top-ten in 2016.

In a lot of ways, people are overlooking Lewis’ most recent victory. Grabowski is the best fighter that he has beaten to date. Damian Grabowski has a Fight Matrix Highest Quarterly Ranking (HQR) of 12. In his only other fight against a competitor with a HQR in the top 20, Matt Mitrione (13), Lewis was on the wrong side of a devastating knockout. 

Output issues for Ray Borg
On Saturday, Borg suffered his second UFC loss. For most of his career, Borg has relied on his superior grappling to control his opponents. However, Scoggins showed up better footwork and picked apart Borg on the outside. For Borg to be successful against better competition, he will need to devise a new strategy to land strikes. Over the course of his UFC career, he has struggle with output. 

On Saturday, he only landed 20 sig strikes over the course of the three-round fight. That is not a very impressive number, but it is actually close to his career high. In his previous fight against Geane Herrera, he landed 26 sig strikes.

1.31 sig strikes per minute is an extremely low rate. If he can’t get his opponents down, he should try clinching along the fence and landed from there, also known as the Randy Couture strategy. 

Updated Top Ten Striking Performances
Four performances from last weekend’s card entered the StrikeScore MMA Top Ten Striking Performances rankings. Lewis had the best score with a 1539 for his destruction of Grabowski.

RankFighterOpponentEventDateStrikeScore
1Anthony JohnsonRyan BaderUFC on Fox 181/30/20169500
2Sheldon WestcottEdgar GarciaUFC 1951/2/20163424
3Derrick LewisDamian GrabowskiUFC Fight Night 822/6/20161539
4Chris WadeMehdi BaghdadUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016590
5Rob FontJoey GomezUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016570
6Patrick CoteBen SaundersUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016547
7Rafael NatalKevin CaseyUFC on Fox 181/30/2016531
8Ovince Saint PreuxRafael FeijaoUFC Fight Night 822/6/2016521
9Stephen ThompsonJohny HendricksUFC Fight Night 822/6/2016464
10Alex WhiteArtem LobovUFC Fight Night 822/6/2016453

Fight Forecast for UFC Fight Night 82

Tonight, the UFC returns with the event formerly known as UFC 196 and currently known as UFC Fight Night 82. The event takes place at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, Kountermove prices, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 2/6/2016 11:45 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 2/6/2016 11:45 PM EST)

Kountermove prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.