UFC 217 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 3 at 10:30 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 3 at 10:30 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

Frankie Edgar earns top StrikeScore at UFC 211

StrikeScore awarded Frankie Edgar with the most efficient striking performance of UFC 211. He outlanded Yair Rodriguez 72 to 16 in terms of significant strikes. On the way towards a second-round stoppage, the former lightweight champion landed 69 percent of his strikes. He did his best work on the ground, as he landed 96 percent of his significant strikes on the ground. 

Take a look at the rest of the StrikeScores from last Saturday’s event. You might be surprised to be see Stipe Miocic’s performance as low as fifth. Well, there is a reason for that. The StrikeScore formula equally values landed strikes and striking accuracy. Miocic landed 26 punches and finished the fight in the first round, but Junior dos Santos landed 66 percent of his strikes.

UFC 211 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of May 12 at 3:00 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of May 12 at 3:00 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

TUF 23 Finale Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 7/8/2016 9:00 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 7/8/2016 9:00 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighters with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database

*Fighters with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Claudia Gadelha
The only fighter who has come close to defeating Jedrzejczyk in the UFC is Gadelha. If we remove the Gadelha fight from the Polish fighter’s StrikeScore actually bumps up another 29 points. 

Gadelha might not be able to win a striking battle, but her wrestling might end up being the difference. She lands 5.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and finishes 61 percent of her attempts.

Andrew Sanchez vs. Khalil Rountree
Tatiana Suarez vs. Amanda Cooper

Going into the 23rd season of TUF, Sanchez (#71) and Rountree (#203) were both ranked at middleweight in the Fight Matrix rankings. Of the fighters in their division, they were fourth and ninth in terms of ranking. Neither Suarez or Cooper were ranked before the show and they beat out two fighters Kate Jackson (#17) and Ashley Cummins (#7) who had peak rankings in the top 20.

Ross Pearson vs. Will Brooks
Pearson has alternated wins and losses in the UFC since 2014. In his last fight, he scored a decision victory over Chad Laprise despite losing the StrikeScore 58 to 159. Brooks is a big favorite and for good reason. He is currently #4 at lightweight per Fight Matrix. Bellator champions in the UFC have been a mixed bag. Eddie Alvarez has proven he belongs while Hector Lombard has been up and down. The only fight listed in the FightMetric database for Brooks is his second-round destruction of Satoru Kitaoka, which explains the high StrikeScore

Doo Ho Choi vs. Thiago Tavares
It is a small sample size, but… Choi has landed 15.14 sig strikes per minute in the UFC and finished two opponents in a combined 111 seconds. He takes his biggest step up in competition here.

As the StrikeScore shows, Tavares is not really a striker. He has come a long way and is not getting knocked out by guys like Shane Roller anymore. However, he will need to get this fight on the floor to be successful.

UFC 193: Expect Joanna Jędrzejczyk's Historic Dominance to Continue

In only her third UFC fight, Joanna Jędrzejczyk defeated Carla Esparza to claim the women's strawweight title. She dominated the bout before securing the finish late in the second round. Jędrzejczyk registered a career-high 1603 StrikeScore for the performance. To put that number into perspective, it is the highest-rated striking performance among all current champion's title-claiming victories. In fact, it is nearly four times the rating that T.J. Dillashaw scored for his dynamic upset of then-champion Renan Barao.

The Polish fighter returned for her first title defense last June. At UFC Fight Night 69, Jessica Penne was introduced to the buzz saw. The referee mercifully stopped the fight near the end of round 3. Jędrzejczyk's StrikeScore for the bout was 722, which is the second highest for a title defense among current champions. Rousey's 16 second destruction of Alexis Davis is the only higher-rated striking performance.

Valérie Létourneau earned her shot on the back on three-straight decision victories inside the UFC. She will become the first ever "The Ultimate Fighter" contestant that lost in the "get into the house round" to fight for a UFC title. Previous non-season-winning TUF veterans are 1-9-1 in their attempts to claim a title (the only successful challenger was Dillashaw).

Despite her winning streak, Létourneau's victories hardly compare with the striking dominance displayed by the champion. The following graph shows both of the fighters' last three performances and their overall career StrikeScore (career includes all fights listed in FightMetric.com)

Jędrzejczyk and Létourneau Last Three Bouts StrikeScore

Obviously there is a sizable gap in striking performance between the two fighters. However, the dominance of Jędrzejczyk is even more impressive when you consider the level of competition. By no means has Létourneau faced a line of tomato cans, but Jędrzejczyk has clearly faced the tougher schedule. The chart below shows the highest quarterly ranking of the fighters' opponents according to FightMatrix. Since the UFC's 115-pound women's division has a relatively short history and their opponents may not have been as highly ranked at the time, the comparison uses the highest quarterly ranking to find a more fair measure of their accomplishments and prowess as competitors