UFC Fight Night 111 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of June 16 at 11:00 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of June 16 at 11:00 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

UFC 208 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Feb. 10 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Feb. 10 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 4/1/2015 to 1/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than 3 fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than 3 fights in the FightMetric database

2017 Prediction Tracker
StrikeScore: 6-9 40%
UFC Fantasy: 21-15 58%
Tapology: 38-17 69%
Odds: 31-12 72%
DraftKings Value: 23-9 72%
DraftKings Points: 16-12 57%
Fight Matrix: 23-23 50%
Rankings Momentum: 21-23 $8%

UFC on Fox 20 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 7/22/2016 12:30 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 7/22/2016 12:30 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

Nate Diaz's attacking submission game and other notes from UFC 196 and Bellator 151

During his UFC career, Diaz has collected 25 submission attempts and finished eight per FightMetric. A 32 percent finish rate does not seem all that impressive. However, let's consider that FightMetric does not count a submission attempt unless it is fully locked on. From that point of view, the fact that he has been able to score 25 near submissions in only 22 fights is rather impressive.

McGregor appeared ready to engage in a back-and-forth standing battle against Diaz. Perhaps this was not the best strategy. Diaz is now 10-3 in UFC fights in which he lands over 30 sig strikes. He has never loss a fight where he has landed over 70. The Stockton fighter appeared fresher in round two and the numbers bear that out. Diaz's attempted sig strike output increased from 62 to 90, while McGregor's went from 74 to 66. Perhaps this is why McGregor attempted his first takedown since 2014.

Miesha Tate pulls out victory despite her striking
Tate has always been successful despite her shortcomings in the striking game. She holds a 5-2 record in the UFC even though she has only posted one StrikeScore above 200 (against Rin Nakai). With that being said, her ability to win without striking superiority has never been more apparent than it was against Holm. Tate won with only a 60 StrikeScore. Her previous low score in a victory was 86 against Sara McMann. 

Obviously, MMA is more than just striking. However, it is still rare for a fighter to win with that much of a striking disparity. Of the 88 UFC winners so far this year, only nine have had scores lower than 60. Also remember that this list of winners includes questionable decisions such as Brad Pickett over Francisco Rivera, Michinori Tanaka over Joe Soto and Alex Morono over Kyle Noke.

FighterOpponentEventDateStrikeScore
Miesha TateHolly HolmUFC 1963/5/201660
Alex MoronoKyle NokeUFC 1951/2/201650
Donald CerroneAlex OliveiraUFC Fight Night 832/21/201642
Tony MartinFelipe OlivieriUFC on Fox 181/30/201641
Michinori TanakaJoe SotoUFC 1951/2/201628
Damon JacksonLevan MakashviliUFC on Fox 181/30/201626
Brad PickettFrancisco RiveraUFC Fight Night 842/27/201625
James KrauseShane CampbellUFC Fight Night 832/21/201624
Brian OrtegaDiego BrandaoUFC 1951/2/20163
Michael McDonaldMasanori KaneharaUFC 1951/2/2016-23

Jason Saggo posts the night's highest StrikeScore, enters 2016 Top Ten
Saggo's first round finish over Justin Salas earned him a 2173 StrikeScore which was the highest of the night. It is also the seventh highest score so far this year. In the fight, Saggo landed 20 sig strikes, while Salas only managed one.

RankFighterOpponentEventDateStrikeScore
1Anthony JohnsonRyan BaderUFC on Fox 181/30/20169500
1Chris CamozziJoe RiggsUFC Fight Night 832/21/20169500
3Derek BrunsonRoan CarneiroUFC Fight Night 832/21/20166800
4Teemu PackalenThibault GoutiUFC Fight Night 842/27/20165900
5Oluwale BamgboseDaniel SarafianUFC Fight Night 832/21/20164800
6Sheldon WestcottEdgar GarciaUFC 1951/2/20163424
7Jason SaggoJustin SalasUFC 1963/5/20162173
8Derrick LewisDamian GrabowskiUFC Fight Night 822/6/20161539
9Chris WadeMehdi BaghdadUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016590
10Tom BreeseKeita NakamuraUFC Fight Night 842/27/2016579

Darrion Caldwell makes a statement
Caldwell planted a world champion Greco-Roman wrestler with a German suplex. That right there is a pretty incredible accomplishment. With his victory over Joe Warren, Caldwell moved up 13 spots in the Fight Matrix rankings to 6. He is now the highest ranked bantamweight on the Bellator roster ahead of both Eduardo Dantas (7) and current champion Marcos Galvao (11). 

UFC 196 Fight Forecast

Saturday night, the UFC returns with UFC 196. The event takes place in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 3/4/2016 3:25 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 3/4/2016 3:25 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

UFC 193: Holly Holm's improved Striking Accuracy leads to victory over Ronda Rousey

Holly Holm did what seemed impossible and knocked out Ronda Rousey in the second round. Despite the hype, it was pretty much obvious that Holm was going to be the better technical striker going into their main event fight at UFC 193. However, few predicted that she would be as successful as she turned out to be.

There is currently a meme floating around the internet that depicts Rousey as a bull trying to catch a muleta wielding Holm. For the fight, Holm used her impressive footwork and held Rousey to only 26 percent significant striking accuracy (see Fight Metric). This is perhaps the least shocking aspect of Holm’s performance. The Greg Jackson fighter had kept her prior two UFC opponents, Raquel Pennington and Marion Reneau, to 28 and 34 percent respectively.

While her defensive numbers are in line with her previous UFC fights, her offensive accuracy numbers are drastically different. Prior to the Rousey fight, Holm had only landed above 40 percent in one round of her UFC career, the second round of her fight with Reneau. Her average accuracy per round was a paltry 28 percent.

Against Rousey, Holm landed at an incredible rate. She finished the first round at 67 percent. In the finishing round, she landed 84 percent of her significant strikes and, of course, kicked Rousey in the head. The following graph shows the significant striking accuracy of Holm and her opponents over the course of her UFC career.

Holly Holm's Striking Accuracy vs. Opponent Striking Accuracy (UFC Career)

The improvements in Holm’s accuracy, paired with her already stellar striking defense, led her to a new career high StrikeScore and a UFC title.

Holly Holm StrikeScore by Round (UFC Career)

Stats make case against Rousey vs. Tate III

UFC President Dana White publicly declared Miesha Tate the next challenger for UFC bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey. Tate's victory over Jessica Eye was supposed to be a number-one contender's fight. However, on Aug. 21, Rousey made a guest appearance on "Good Morning America" to declare her next challenger would be former boxing champion Holly Holm.

Before the announcement of Holm, the UFC and Tate supporters seemed to be pushing the narrative that Tate had drastically improved, especially her striking, since her second loss to Rousey at UFC 168. Of course, anyone who wished to sell that fight on pay per view would need to come up with some angle to create interest after two dominant Rousey victories.

However, the interesting counter-narrative is that Rousey has also improved, so a rematch between the two would ultimately look the same if not worse.

Since StrikeScore measures striking performance relative to opponent, charting Tate and Rousey's StrikeScore performance across their careers should result in a trend line that shows the rate of improvement or deterioration. The following are the graphical interpretation of all fights for Tate and Rousey in the Fight Metric database.

Ronda Rousey Career StrikeScore
Miesha Tate Career StrikeScore

The striking performances of both fighters are trending up. However, the difference between the rate of improvement is drastic. The slope of the trendline, which in this case is equivalent to the rate of improvement, is 35.15 for Rousey and only 4.77 for Tate. 

Of course these graphs are for the fighter's entire career. Is it possible that Tate's rate of improvement since their second fight is higher?

Tate StrikeScore Since Second Rousey Fight

In fact, the trendline of Tate's StrikeScores since the second Rousey fight is actually trending down (slope is -34.40). The trend is negative even after Tate registered her best StrikeScore (382) against Rin Nakai who is most likely not a UFC caliber fighter. 

On the other hand, since their last encounter, Rousey has had two of her best striking performances to date: 904 against Davis and 303 against Correia.

Holm has not really set the world on fire either. In her two UFC fights she has scored a 155 StrikeScore. While that score is not very impressive for a career striker like Holm, it is good enough for fifth among women's bantamweights currently ranked in the UFC's top 10. Of course, Rousey has already beaten the top four.

In case you were wondering Cristiane "Cyborg" Justino's career StrikeScore for her Strikeforce and Elite XC bouts is 588...