UFC on Fox 26 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 15 at 11:45 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 15 at 11:45 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

UFC on Fox 26 StrikeScore.png

Jack Hermansson's StrikeScore is nearly off the charts at UFC Fight Night 109

One of the biggest issues with the StrikeScore formula is that it can return some extraordinarily high scores for blowout fights. Alex Nicholson only managed to land one strike as he was being destroyed by Jack Hermansson who landed 23 sig strikes. The 23-to-1 ratio created a monstrous score of 2616, which is more than four times the next highest score at UFC Fight Night 109. Until we determine a way to normalize these scores, fighters like Hermansson can enjoy their huge accolades. Learn more about StrikeScore here.

UFC Fight Night 109 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of May 26 at 3:00 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of May 26 at 3:00 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

UFC 208 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Feb. 10 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Feb. 10 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 4/1/2015 to 1/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than 3 fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than 3 fights in the FightMetric database

2017 Prediction Tracker
StrikeScore: 6-9 40%
UFC Fantasy: 21-15 58%
Tapology: 38-17 69%
Odds: 31-12 72%
DraftKings Value: 23-9 72%
DraftKings Points: 16-12 57%
Fight Matrix: 23-23 50%
Rankings Momentum: 21-23 $8%

Fight Forecast for UFC on Fox 19

Saturday night the UFC returns with UFC on Fox 19. The event takes place at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla. Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 4/15/2016 12:45 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 4/15/2016 12:45 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

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Notes:

Lost Fight Pass Fight
In his MMA debut back in 2002, Glover Teixeira fell via knockout to Eric Schwartz. This remains his only knockout defeat of his career. The fight, as well as the rest of WEC 3 is missing from UFC Fight Pass.

Beneil Dariush’s last time out…

Power Issues
Over the course of his UFC career, Court McGee has landed 5.41 sig strikes per minute, which is a hair below tenth-best all time. However, he has never scored a knockout in the Octagon.

Always looking for the finish
John Dodson has gone 2-2 in fights that go the distance in the UFC. In fights that finish inside the distance, he is 4-0.

Contrasting Grapplers
Obviously Rose Namajunas will be looking to finish the fight via submission. During her three-fight UFC career, she has picked up both of her wins with rear-naked choke subs. Tecia Torres also likes the fight on the floor, but mostly to work from the top. She has average 1.13 takedown attempts per minute in the UFC, but she has only be able to land three of them. However, in their first fight, Torres was mostly interested in standing up.

Can you say top-position grappler?
Hacran Dias has won all of his UFC fight via decision, and he has never landed more sig strikes than his opponent in an individual fight.

Elusive for a Reason
In two UFC fights, Islam Makhachev has absorbed only 10 sig strikes. With that being said, Adriano Martins only needed to land three to finish the Degestani fighter at UFC 192.

StrikeScore’s KO Factor at Work
Cezar Ferreira has been knocked out in three of his seven bouts in the UFC. Without the knockout losses, his StrikeScore would be 80, but with the KO penalty it falls all the way to 37. Oluwale Bamgbose’s UFC career StrikeScore jumped from -41 to 111 after he finished Daniel Sarafian at UFC Fight Night 83.