UFC Fight Night 120 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 11 at 11:30 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 11 at 11:30 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

Frankie Edgar earns top StrikeScore at UFC 211

StrikeScore awarded Frankie Edgar with the most efficient striking performance of UFC 211. He outlanded Yair Rodriguez 72 to 16 in terms of significant strikes. On the way towards a second-round stoppage, the former lightweight champion landed 69 percent of his strikes. He did his best work on the ground, as he landed 96 percent of his significant strikes on the ground. 

Take a look at the rest of the StrikeScores from last Saturday’s event. You might be surprised to be see Stipe Miocic’s performance as low as fifth. Well, there is a reason for that. The StrikeScore formula equally values landed strikes and striking accuracy. Miocic landed 26 punches and finished the fight in the first round, but Junior dos Santos landed 66 percent of his strikes.

UFC 211 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of May 12 at 3:00 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of May 12 at 3:00 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

UFC 208 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Feb. 10 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Feb. 10 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 4/1/2015 to 1/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than 3 fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than 3 fights in the FightMetric database

2017 Prediction Tracker
StrikeScore: 6-9 40%
UFC Fantasy: 21-15 58%
Tapology: 38-17 69%
Odds: 31-12 72%
DraftKings Value: 23-9 72%
DraftKings Points: 16-12 57%
Fight Matrix: 23-23 50%
Rankings Momentum: 21-23 $8%

UFC Fight Night 94 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 9/16/2016 11:30 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 9/16/2016 11:30 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with less than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fighter with less than three fights in FightMetric database

Since falling to Conor McGregor, Dustin Poirier has outlanded his opponents 159 to 79.

Michael Johnson does not really differentiate himself from his opponents. His opponents land nearly as many sig strikes per minute as he does (3.46-3.89). His opponents land 40 percent of their sig strikes, while Johnson only lands 35.

Uriah Hall is 1-4 in UFC fights that go to decision. Hall’s ranking jumped up significantly following upset over Gegard Mousasi, which explains his 45.65 Rankings Momentum.

In his last three fights, Derek Brunson has outlanded his opponents 61 to 4 and scored three knockouts.

Evan Dunham throws a ton of volume. He lands a respectable number of sig strikes per minute, 5.37, while only landing 38 percent.

Rick Glenn’s ranking peaked at #17 after he defeated Georgi Karakhanyan for the WSOF title. It has since leveled off.

Since returning from an over six-year layoff in 2015, “Jucao” has landed one sig strikes in two UFC bouts.

Chris Wade had scored 11 takedowns without being taken down himself prior to his last fight. Against Rustam Khabilov, he failed to land a takedown for the first time in his UFC career and allow Khabilov to land 6 of 9 takedown attempts.

Islam Makhachev’s UFC career has been a tale of two fights. In his debut, he thoroughly outstruck Leo Kuntz 32 to 7. However, in his last fight, he was knocked out on only three punches by Adriano Martins.

Chas Skelly has never really been much of a striker, but his last fight really hurt him from a numbers perspective. Against Darren Elkins, he was outstruck 104 to 27, which dropped his UFC per minute striking differential to -1.51.

Maximo Blanco and Skelly should be an interesting freestyle vs. folkstyle wrestling battle. Blanco has landed 11 takedowns in his UFC/Strikeforce career. However, against the best wrestler he has faced, Pat Healy, he allowed five takedowns and fell via submission.

So far in his UFC career, Gabriel Benitez has avoided 71 percent of his opponent’s strikes. However, Andre Fili only needed to landed 16 sig strikes to finish him at UFC Fight Night 78.

Like most fighters with a StrikeScore under 100, Sam Sicilia lands fewer sig strikes than his opponents (2.74 slpm vs 3.33) and at a worse rate (37 percent to 43)

Augusto Montano has been takedown and had his guard passed in both of his UFC fights and Chris Heatherly and Cathal Pendred.

In his UFC debut, Belal Muhammad landed over five sig strikes per minute and absorbed over five sig strikes per minute. Against Alan Jouban, defense was optional.

Antonio Carlos Junior is returning to action after suffering his first career knockout loss against Daniel Kelly.

In his UFC debut, Leonardo Leleco was outstruck 64 to 57 by Anthony Smith. However, he got into a groove in the third round. In the final frame, he outlanded Smith 39 to 6.

Jose Quinonez picked up his first career submission victory over Leonardo Morales in his last outing.

In his UFC debut, Joey Gomez struggled. Rob Font landed 52 sig strikes and finished him late in the second round.

Erick Montano landed two takedowns in his UFC debut against Enrique Marin, but he landed zero sig strikes on the ground.

Randy Brown’s striking game was shut down in his last fight by the wrestling of Michael Graves. However, Brown successfully defended five of seven takedown attempts and absorbed only 11 sig strikes.

Alejandro Perez scored the highest StrikeScore of the year (11800) against Ian Entwistle. In the fight, he landed 48 sig strikes while absorbing none. 

After making his professional debut in 2015, Albert Morales broke into the Fight Matrix rankings at #444 featherweight after defeating Anthony Paredes at World Series of Fighting 28.

UFC 199 Fight Forecast

In the main event of UFC 199, Luke Rockhold will look to defend his middleweight title against Michael Bisping. The two faced off for the first time at UFC Fight Night 55. On that night, Rockhold scored a second-round guillotine choke submission. In addition to the submission finish, Rockhold had the edge in the striking game. He finished with a 225 SS+, while Bisping had only a 30.

Not only did Rockhold out-perform Bisping in the striking game, he was also not at his best. His 225 SS+ performance is actually below his average (302) over his last 10 fights.

Bisping also performed below his average. While Rockhold was 77 points under, Bisping was 109 points below his average score.

With news breaking that Rockhold might not be a 100 percent due to a knee injury, Bisping might become a more attractive underdog. However, from a striking perspective at least, Rockhold has already proven that he can win without being at his best.

Dominick Cruz is a favorite across the board
If we look at the new StrikeScore Composite Prediction, Cruz is a huge favorite over his rival Urijah Faber. The Composite prediction is an average of the scaled metrics including StrikeScore, UFC Fantasy, Tapology, betting odds, DraftKings and Fight Matrix. Cruz is the favorite 73 to 27 percent.

Scaled Cruz vs. Faber III Predicitions

Fight Forecast
Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 6/3/2016 3:00 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 6/3/2016 3:00 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database **Ranking at welterweight ^Ranking at bantamweight ^^Ranking at light heavyweight

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database
**Ranking at welterweight
^Ranking at bantamweight
^^Ranking at light heavyweight