UFC Fight Night 118 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 20 at 9:15 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 20 at 9:15 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

Final StrikeScores for UFC 214

At UFC 214, Ricardo Lamas made quick work of Jason Knight. He landed 42 significant strikes at a 67 percent clip while only absorbing eight. For his efforts, he had the highest StrikeScore of the night at 830. To find out more about stat, which measures striking efficiency, click here.

UFC 214 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of July 27 at 3:30 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of July 27 at 3:30 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2015 to 7/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

UFC on Fox 23 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Jan. 27 at 9:30 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Jan. 27 at 9:30 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 4/1/2015 to 1/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

2017 Prediction Tracker:
StrikeScore: 3-2 66%
UFC Fantasy: 7-5 58%
Tapology: 17-5 77%
Odds: 11-4 73%
DraftKings Value: 8-2 80%
DraftKings Points: 7-4 64%
Fight Matrix: 12-8 60%
Rankings Momentum: 8-9 47%

UFC 206 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 9 at 1:00 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 9 at 1:00 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2015 to 10/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Less than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Less than three fights in the FightMetric database

UFC Fight Night 89 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 6/18/2016 12:45 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 6/18/2016 12:45 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database   

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database

 

UFC Fight Night 83 Fight Forecast

Tonight, the UFC returns with UFC Fight Night 83. The event takes place at the Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh. Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 2/21/2016 3:25 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 2/21/2016 3:25 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

* fighters without three fights in the Fightmetric database

* fighters without three fights in the Fightmetric database

Predicting Rafael dos Anjos vs. Donald Cerrone with Pythagorean Expectation

In this weekend’s UFC on Fox 17 main event, lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos will look to defend his title against Donald Cerrone. It is a relatively close match up as the odds currently have Dos Anjos as a -200 favorite. 

StrikeScoreMMA.com has been publishing Fight Forecast for upcoming UFC events for the last few weeks. Fight Forecast features the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, Kountermove prices, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. 

After four events, career StrikeScore has correctly predicted the winner in 64 percent of bouts, despite only measuring striking efficiency (read about it here). The only other model to perform better over that stretch was the DraftKings prices, which have picked correctly in 66 percent of bouts.

For this main event, we are going to apply Pythagorean Expectations to the StrikeScore model. Career StrikeScore takes into account all strikes thrown and landed by a fighter and his/her opponent over the course of their career. PythagScore will look at each fight individually and give an estimate of how many fights a fighter “should” have won given their StrikeScore. This estimate should provide a more accurate representation of a fighter’s skill and accomplishment as a striker.

Pythagorean Expectation is a formula developed by Bill James. The idea is to compare a baseball team’s actual winning percentage with their Pythagorean winning percentage. If there is a great variance between the two, than the team was either extremely lucky or unlucky. The same can be applied to MMA. If a fighter has lower PythagScore than their winning percentage, it is possible they were getting gift decisions or just plain lucky. The basic formula is below.

from Wikipedia

from Wikipedia

The formula has been adapted for use in other sports by using a different exponent. Once a larger sample of data has been culled, StrikeScoreMMA will likely also adjust the exponent as well.

The following charts show the StrikeScore for all of Dos Anjos’ and Cerrone’s fights in the Fightmetric database.

After running the numbers through the formula, Dos Anjos has a 97 PythagScore while Cerrone’s score comes in at 57. The new measure picks the same favorite as career StrikeScore (Dos Anjos 166 to Cerrone 125). However, PythagScore has Dos Anjos as a much bigger favorite.