UFC 216 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 6 at 9:15 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 6 at 9:15 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2015 to 7/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

UFC Fight Night 110 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of June 9 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of June 9 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

UFC Fight Night 105 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Feb. 173 at 3:15 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Feb. 17 at 3:15 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 4/1/2015 to 1/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

Fight Forecast for UFC Fight Night 102

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 8 at 12:40 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 8 at 12:40 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2015 to 10/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

July UFC Striking Performance of the Month

July had several top striking performance, but Louis Smolka finished with the highest StrikeScore for his continuous onslaught on Ben Nguyen. Despite the high score, he did not come close to unseating Alejandro Perez's top score of the year so far.


RankFighterOpponentEventDateStrikeScore
1Louis SmolkaBen NguyenUFC Fight Night 917/13/20162194
2Tatiana SuarezAmanda CooperTUF 23 Finale7/8/20161836
3Amanda NunesMiesha TateUFC 2007/9/20161648
4Cain VelasquezTravis BrowneUFC 2007/9/20161120
5Anthony HamiltonDamian GrabowskiUFC 2017/30/20161070
6Derrick LewisRoy NelsonUFC Fight Night 907/7/20161063
7Alberto MinaMike PyleUFC Fight Night 907/7/20161031
8Jim MillerTakanori GomiUFC 2007/9/2016950
9Kevin LeeJake MatthewsTUF 23 Finale7/8/2016646
10Gegard MousasiThiago SantosUFC 2007/9/2016581

UFC Fight Night 90 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 7/7/2016 9:00 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 7/7/2016 9:00 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fighter with than three fights in FightMetric database

Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez
StrikeScore gives Dos Anjos the advantage in the striking battle. However, the career numbers do not tell the whole story. Over the course of his last four fights against Benson Henderson, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone, Dos Anjos has put up 342, 1026, 224 and 754 respectively.

The FightMetric database does not include stats from Alvarez’s Bellator career, so the number is composed of fights in Dream, Elite XC and the UFC. In the Octagon, he has been outstruck in all of his fights and overall 121 to 171.

Roy Nelson vs. Derrick Lewis
Nelson’s StrikeScore is even lower when you take out the knockout adjustment. It falls all the way to 13. Remember that a fighter with a score of 100 is even with his/her opponents. A large contributor to his low StrikeScore is the fact that opposition lands 53 percent of their sig strikes against him.

All of Lewis’ fights in the UFC have ended via knockout. He is extremely accurate (59 percent striking accuracy) but he also eats a lot of shots (36 percent striking defense). This fight will likely be decided by who can land the big power strikes early.

Alan Jouban vs. Belal Muhammad
From an offensive perspective, Jouban is a gifted striker. He landed 5.16 sig strikes per minute and had ended half of his UFC fights via knockout.

Muhammad is a Titan FC veteran who is making his UFC debut. He is the higher ranked fighter per Fight Matrix (53 to 79) and has respectable Rankings Momentum (6.21).

Joe Duffy vs. Mitch Clarke
Both of these fighters’ low StrikeScores stand out. Duffy’s score has not recovered from his fight against Dustin Poirier. The American Top Team product landed 72 sig strikes while Duffy only managed 37. On the other hand, Clarke has struggled in the striking department. On top of that, he has been taken down 12 times in five UFC fights.

Mike Pyle vs. Alberto Mina
Pyle is clearly the more advanced and varied striker. His StrikeScore has taken a hit as he had been knocked out in four of his last five losses. Mina has less than three fights in the UFC, so we are working with too small of a sample. He has only fought a fighter not on the UFC level and a broken down Yoshihiro Akiyama.

John Makdessi vs. Mehdi Baghdad
Over the course of his UFC career, Makdessi has proven hard to hit. Opponent’s land only 28 percent of sig strikes against him. That should make things tough for Baghdad. He managed to land only one sig strike in his UFC debut before falling via submission.

Anthony Birchak vs. Dileno Lopes
Birchak does not land at a very high percentage, but he makes up for it with volume. The end result is that he lands an impressive 6.64 sig strikes per minute.

Russell Doane vs. Pedro Munhoz
Doane is an aggressive fighter who is not afraid to come forward. That might be an issue for Munhoz. He allows 6.10 sig strikes against per minute. In his two losses to Jimmie Rivera and Raphael Assuncao, opponents landed 96 and 100 sig strikes against respectively.

Felipe Arantes vs. Jerrod Sanders.
Arantes is the rightful favorite. Sanders comes from a wrestling background and has struggled to incorporate an overall MMA game. In order to have a chance here, he will need to throw more strikes. Sanders lands 66 percent of his sig strikes, but his volume is incredible low. He lands only 0.87 sig strikes per minute.

'Wonderboy' posts highest score against Hendricks and other notes from UFC Fight Night 82

Stephen Thompson upset former champion Johny Hendricks. In the process, he registered a 464 StrikeScore. That is the highest number ever put up against Hendricks over the course of his WEC/UFC career. The 464 StrikeScore is nearly double the previous high score against Hendricks, Alex Serdyukov who put up 238 in 2009.

In a little over three minutes, Thompson landed 24 strikes at a 52 percent rate. Probably more impressively, he was able to stuff two takedown attempts from the multiple-time NCAA wrestler. It was a big night for the Wonderboy.

Roy Nelson starts slow, but turns the tide against Jared Rosholt
In the opening frame, Nelson managed to only land six significant strikes. However, in the next two rounds, he was able to settle down and pick apart Rosholt on the feet. After a -8 StrikeScore in round one, Nelson scored 187 and 227 for the final two rounds. 

Nelson vs. Rosholt StrikeScore by Round 1

OSP is boom or bust
Ovince Saint Preux utterly dominated former Strikeforce champion Rafael Feijao. Despite rolling his ankle early in the fight, he was able to earn a whopping 521 StrikeScore. Over the course of his last three fights, OSP has managed to score 200 or over in all of his victories. However, he has been forced under 100 in all of his defeats.

St. Preux Recent Career StrikeScore

Derrick Lewis is not going to decision
Lewis is 4-2 in his six-fight UFC career. All six of those fights have ended via knockout. His run is a microcosm of heavyweight MMA outside of the top-ten in 2016.

In a lot of ways, people are overlooking Lewis’ most recent victory. Grabowski is the best fighter that he has beaten to date. Damian Grabowski has a Fight Matrix Highest Quarterly Ranking (HQR) of 12. In his only other fight against a competitor with a HQR in the top 20, Matt Mitrione (13), Lewis was on the wrong side of a devastating knockout. 

Output issues for Ray Borg
On Saturday, Borg suffered his second UFC loss. For most of his career, Borg has relied on his superior grappling to control his opponents. However, Scoggins showed up better footwork and picked apart Borg on the outside. For Borg to be successful against better competition, he will need to devise a new strategy to land strikes. Over the course of his UFC career, he has struggle with output. 

On Saturday, he only landed 20 sig strikes over the course of the three-round fight. That is not a very impressive number, but it is actually close to his career high. In his previous fight against Geane Herrera, he landed 26 sig strikes.

1.31 sig strikes per minute is an extremely low rate. If he can’t get his opponents down, he should try clinching along the fence and landed from there, also known as the Randy Couture strategy. 

Updated Top Ten Striking Performances
Four performances from last weekend’s card entered the StrikeScore MMA Top Ten Striking Performances rankings. Lewis had the best score with a 1539 for his destruction of Grabowski.

RankFighterOpponentEventDateStrikeScore
1Anthony JohnsonRyan BaderUFC on Fox 181/30/20169500
2Sheldon WestcottEdgar GarciaUFC 1951/2/20163424
3Derrick LewisDamian GrabowskiUFC Fight Night 822/6/20161539
4Chris WadeMehdi BaghdadUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016590
5Rob FontJoey GomezUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016570
6Patrick CoteBen SaundersUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016547
7Rafael NatalKevin CaseyUFC on Fox 181/30/2016531
8Ovince Saint PreuxRafael FeijaoUFC Fight Night 822/6/2016521
9Stephen ThompsonJohny HendricksUFC Fight Night 822/6/2016464
10Alex WhiteArtem LobovUFC Fight Night 822/6/2016453