UFC Fight Night 119 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 27 at 10:15 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 27 at 10:15 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

UFC FN 119 Screener.png

UFC Fight Night 110 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of June 9 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of June 9 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

UFC 208 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Feb. 10 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Feb. 10 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 4/1/2015 to 1/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than 3 fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than 3 fights in the FightMetric database

2017 Prediction Tracker
StrikeScore: 6-9 40%
UFC Fantasy: 21-15 58%
Tapology: 38-17 69%
Odds: 31-12 72%
DraftKings Value: 23-9 72%
DraftKings Points: 16-12 57%
Fight Matrix: 23-23 50%
Rankings Momentum: 21-23 $8%

UFC Fight Night 94 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 9/16/2016 11:30 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 9/16/2016 11:30 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with less than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fighter with less than three fights in FightMetric database

Since falling to Conor McGregor, Dustin Poirier has outlanded his opponents 159 to 79.

Michael Johnson does not really differentiate himself from his opponents. His opponents land nearly as many sig strikes per minute as he does (3.46-3.89). His opponents land 40 percent of their sig strikes, while Johnson only lands 35.

Uriah Hall is 1-4 in UFC fights that go to decision. Hall’s ranking jumped up significantly following upset over Gegard Mousasi, which explains his 45.65 Rankings Momentum.

In his last three fights, Derek Brunson has outlanded his opponents 61 to 4 and scored three knockouts.

Evan Dunham throws a ton of volume. He lands a respectable number of sig strikes per minute, 5.37, while only landing 38 percent.

Rick Glenn’s ranking peaked at #17 after he defeated Georgi Karakhanyan for the WSOF title. It has since leveled off.

Since returning from an over six-year layoff in 2015, “Jucao” has landed one sig strikes in two UFC bouts.

Chris Wade had scored 11 takedowns without being taken down himself prior to his last fight. Against Rustam Khabilov, he failed to land a takedown for the first time in his UFC career and allow Khabilov to land 6 of 9 takedown attempts.

Islam Makhachev’s UFC career has been a tale of two fights. In his debut, he thoroughly outstruck Leo Kuntz 32 to 7. However, in his last fight, he was knocked out on only three punches by Adriano Martins.

Chas Skelly has never really been much of a striker, but his last fight really hurt him from a numbers perspective. Against Darren Elkins, he was outstruck 104 to 27, which dropped his UFC per minute striking differential to -1.51.

Maximo Blanco and Skelly should be an interesting freestyle vs. folkstyle wrestling battle. Blanco has landed 11 takedowns in his UFC/Strikeforce career. However, against the best wrestler he has faced, Pat Healy, he allowed five takedowns and fell via submission.

So far in his UFC career, Gabriel Benitez has avoided 71 percent of his opponent’s strikes. However, Andre Fili only needed to landed 16 sig strikes to finish him at UFC Fight Night 78.

Like most fighters with a StrikeScore under 100, Sam Sicilia lands fewer sig strikes than his opponents (2.74 slpm vs 3.33) and at a worse rate (37 percent to 43)

Augusto Montano has been takedown and had his guard passed in both of his UFC fights and Chris Heatherly and Cathal Pendred.

In his UFC debut, Belal Muhammad landed over five sig strikes per minute and absorbed over five sig strikes per minute. Against Alan Jouban, defense was optional.

Antonio Carlos Junior is returning to action after suffering his first career knockout loss against Daniel Kelly.

In his UFC debut, Leonardo Leleco was outstruck 64 to 57 by Anthony Smith. However, he got into a groove in the third round. In the final frame, he outlanded Smith 39 to 6.

Jose Quinonez picked up his first career submission victory over Leonardo Morales in his last outing.

In his UFC debut, Joey Gomez struggled. Rob Font landed 52 sig strikes and finished him late in the second round.

Erick Montano landed two takedowns in his UFC debut against Enrique Marin, but he landed zero sig strikes on the ground.

Randy Brown’s striking game was shut down in his last fight by the wrestling of Michael Graves. However, Brown successfully defended five of seven takedown attempts and absorbed only 11 sig strikes.

Alejandro Perez scored the highest StrikeScore of the year (11800) against Ian Entwistle. In the fight, he landed 48 sig strikes while absorbing none. 

After making his professional debut in 2015, Albert Morales broke into the Fight Matrix rankings at #444 featherweight after defeating Anthony Paredes at World Series of Fighting 28.

Huge performances from Camozzi, Brunson and Bamgbose and other post-fight notes from UFC Fight Night 83 and Bellator 149

Going into the event, UFC Fight Night 83 did not look like a very impactful cards. Several of the matches were changed or removed, and it was lacking the regular amount of star power. Well, a few of the fighters made up for the lack of star power with striking power. Four competitors from Sunday night were good enough to crack the Top Ten Most Efficient Striking Performances of 2016 list. One of those performances, Chris Camozzi's brutual finish of Joe Riggs, tied Anthony Johnson's knockout of Anthony Johnson for best of the year so far.

RankFighterOpponentEventDateStrikeScore
1Anthony JohnsonRyan BaderUFC on Fox 181/30/20169500
1Chris CamozziJoe RiggsUFC Fight Night 832/21/20169500
3Derek BrunsonRoan CarneiroUFC Fight Night 832/21/20166800
4Oluwale BamgboseDaniel SarafianUFC Fight Night 832/21/20164800
5Sheldon WestcottEdgar GarciaUFC 1951/2/20163424
6Derrick LewisDamian GrabowskiUFC Fight Night 822/6/20161539
7Chris WadeMehdi BaghdadUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016590
8Dennis BermudezTatsuya KawajiriUFC Fight Night 832/21/2016574
9Rob FontJoey GomezUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016570
10Patrick CoteBen SaundersUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016547

Three fighters fail to land a single strike
Camozzi, Derek Brunson and Oluwale Bamgbose earned exceptional marks with their brutal first-round domination. However, their opponent's total lack of offense also contributed to the high scores. Riggs and Sarafian, like Bader at UFC on Fox 18, were finished without even attempting a strike. Roan Carneiro at least tried to land strikes, but he went 0 for 13 before ending of the ground and being dispatched.

Third round of Anthony Smith vs. Leonardo Guimaraes
First, let's preface this with the fact that Smith took this fight on about six days notice. With that being said, he appeared to entirely shutdown and refuse to fight after building a two round lead against Guimaraes. In the final stanza, Smith was more than happy to grab wrist control and hold on for dear life. Guimaraes is not without blame, since a better strategy would have likely lead to a knockout finish. However, rounds like the third round of this fight need to scored 10-8!

In the third round, Smith landed only six sig strikes, while Guimaraes landed 39. The StrikeScore differential was 747 to -34 in favor of Guimaraes. To put that into perspective, if a fighter scored a 747 StrikeScore over the course of a whole fight, he/she would have the seventh best score of the entire year.

Anthony Smith vs. Leonardo Guimaraes StrikeScore by Round

Decision in Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Marion Reneau
This was not a good decision. Of the media scorecards tracked by MMADecisions.com, 16 went for Reneau and only one went for Evans-Smith. StrikeScore, of course, agrees with the majority. Two of the three judges even had round one for Evans-Smith, which is dreadful. As previously stated, this was not a good decision.

Marion Reneau vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith StrikeScore per Round

Lauren Murphy's comeback in terms of StrikeScore
Out of the gate, it looked like Kelly Faszholz was going to pick up a pretty sizeable upset in her UFC debut. However, Murphy stayed true to her gameplan and ended up finishing the bout in the finals seconds of the fight. FightMetric's Michael Carroll confirmed on Twitter that this was the fourth latest finish in a three-round fight.

Lauren Murphy vs. Kelly Faszholz StrikeScore per Round

The Oddity of Kimbo Slice vs. Dada 5000
It was a strange fight to say the least. Neither fighter had the lunges to go more than two minutes, but the fight ended up going over 11. If you look at the numbers in a vacum, it appears as if Kimbo actually had a pretty good performance. He finished with a 360 StrikeScore and landed over five strikes per minute.

With that being said, the only reason Kimbo's number look passable is how miserable Dada 5000's performance was. In the first two rounds, he absorbed 72 percent of Kimbo's strikes and landed only 38 percent of his own. These numbers are the unofficial live numbers from the Bellator app provided by CompuStrike. Live numbers tend to run higher, and CompuStrike percentages are almost always higher than FightMetric, because they do not exclude "insignificant strikes."

Kimbo Slice vs. Dada 5000 StrikeScore by Round

Big night for Derek Campos
Lost in the shuffle of Kimbo, Dada, Royce and Ken was a career performance for Campos. Going into his fight against Melvin Guillard, he was riding a two-fight winning streak and had failed to make it out of the first round since 2014. Last Saturday, he caught Guillard early and finished the fight in the second round. He finished with a 318 to -57 StrikeScore advantage. His Fight Matrix ranking jumped up a whopping 112 ranking spots to 46.