UFC Fight Night 119 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 27 at 10:15 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 27 at 10:15 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

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Final StrikeScores for UFC 214

At UFC 214, Ricardo Lamas made quick work of Jason Knight. He landed 42 significant strikes at a 67 percent clip while only absorbing eight. For his efforts, he had the highest StrikeScore of the night at 830. To find out more about stat, which measures striking efficiency, click here.

UFC 214 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of July 27 at 3:30 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of July 27 at 3:30 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2015 to 7/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

Frankie Edgar earns top StrikeScore at UFC 211

StrikeScore awarded Frankie Edgar with the most efficient striking performance of UFC 211. He outlanded Yair Rodriguez 72 to 16 in terms of significant strikes. On the way towards a second-round stoppage, the former lightweight champion landed 69 percent of his strikes. He did his best work on the ground, as he landed 96 percent of his significant strikes on the ground. 

Take a look at the rest of the StrikeScores from last Saturday’s event. You might be surprised to be see Stipe Miocic’s performance as low as fifth. Well, there is a reason for that. The StrikeScore formula equally values landed strikes and striking accuracy. Miocic landed 26 punches and finished the fight in the first round, but Junior dos Santos landed 66 percent of his strikes.

UFC 211 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of May 12 at 3:00 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of May 12 at 3:00 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

UFC on Fox 21 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 8/26/2016 11:30 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 8/26/2016 11:30 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database ^Ranking at Lightweight ^^Ranking at Featherweight

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database
^Ranking at Lightweight
^^Ranking at Featherweight

Analyzing Stipe Miocic's KO power and other notes from UFC 198, Bellator 154 and Glory 30

Despite not having a huge reputation as a power striker, Stipe Miocic was able to stop Fabricio Werdum with a single back-peddling punch and win the UFC heavyweight title. Perhaps Miocic should be more respected for his power.

The former Cleveland State wrestler now has four knockouts in his last five fights. He has scored those KOs in a little over 52 minutes of cage time. That means he is earning a .077 knockouts per minute during the stretch. The number is good enough for third best compared to the rest of the ranked heavyweights on the UFC roster.


FighterKO per Minute (Last 5 Fights)
Lewis0.123
Overeem0.080
Miocic0.077
Oliynyk0.070
Arlovski0.067
Hunt0.067
Browne0.060
Mir0.056
Velasquez0.046
Rothwell0.040
Barnett0.026
Struve0.022
Werdum0.020
Nelson0.015
Dos Santos0.010
Magomedov0.000

For Maia, BJJ is the best defense
Over his last three bouts, Demian Maia has absorbed a total of 12 sig strikes. He has absorbed only 12 strikes in his last 37 minutes of cage time. That means his opponents have landed 0.32 sig strikes per minute. To put that number in perspective, the UFC career record for absorbing the fewest sig strikes per minute is 1.18.

Cyborg tops the StrikeScore
Surprisingly none of the performance from UFC 198 were able to crack the StrikeScore Top 10 Most Efficient Striking Performances of 2016 list. However, Cris Cyborg came the closest in her UFC debut. Her first-round stoppage over Leslie Smith earned a 1595 StrikeScore, which is the 12th best score of the year. Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza also cracked the century mark with a 1063 StrikeScore for his total destruction of Vitor Belfort.

Phil Davis vs. King Mo
Fans in the building at Bellator 154 did not seem to agree with the judges awarding Phil Davis the decision victory over Muhammed Lawal. The media echoed that sentiment with five of six writers going with Lawal over Davis. However, for the most part it looks like Davis was at least the better striker over the three rounds. Even though this was not the most exciting fight, it drives home the point that Bellator needs to follow the UFC’s lead and implement five-round non-title main events. The video of the entire fight is available at Bellator.com.

Phil Davis vs. Muhammed Lawal StrikeScore by Round

Glory 30 Superfight Series Box Score
Strikeforce and UFC veteran Guto Inocente has really found a home for himself in Glory. He continued his winning streak with a one-sided decision victory over Ganryujima veteran Brian Douwes and scored the highest StrikeScore of the Superfight Series.

UFC 198 Fight Forecast

On Saturday, the UFC returns with UFC 198. In the main event, heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum defends his title against Stipe Miocic. 

One of the most interesting aspects of Werdum’s MMA career has been his continual improvement. After beginning his career as a one-dimensional grappler, he has morphed into a fighter capable of knocking out Mark Hunt and forcing Cain Velasquez to shoot for takedowns.

Werdum’s improvement is most noteworthy in terms of his ability to land significant strikes. During his current UFC run, the Brazilian is landing 5.61 sig strikes per minute. To put that number into perspective, that is only slightly behind the UFC career number for bantamweight slugger John Lineker (5.62).

Not only is that an impressive level of striking output for a heavyweight, but it also more than double the number of sig strikes per minute Werdum was landing during his runs in Pride FC and Strikeforce as well as his first stint in the UFC.

Earlier in his career, Werdum would have most likely struggled against a guy he could not drag to the ground. However, now he appears more than capable in multiple facets of MMA. No matter what happens on Saturday against Stipe Miocic, more fighters should follow the Werdum model and continue to craft their fight game.

Fight Forecast
StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 5/13/2016 4:30 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 5/13/2016 4:30 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. The stat provides a measure of how a fighter has improved or declined in terms of the Fight Matrix rankings over the past two years.

*Fighters with less than 3 bouts in FightMetric database

*Fighters with less than 3 bouts in FightMetric database

Other Notes:

Near Lock for Fight of the Night
Rob Font lands 5.55 sig strikes per minute and has finished all of his bouts in the UFC by knockout. Standing across the cage will be John Lineker who lands 5.62 sig strikes per minute has scored four knockouts in nine UFC fights. Expect fireworks.

Just Scrap
Hawaiian MMA pioneer B.J. Penn always promoted the "Just Scrap" philosophy. His fellow islander Yancy Medeiros seems to be a true believer. Over the course of his UFC career, he has absorbed over half of his opponents' strikes and nearly eaten a strike for every one that he lands.

Brazilian Ironman
There might not be much fanfare, but Francisco Trinaldo is riding a five-fight winning streak. On Saturday, he will fight in the UFC for the 13th time. Of his 13 fights, 10 will have taken place in his native Brazil.

Marquardt Decline
We wrote about the decline of Nate Marquardt prior to his last bout. Even though we seem to have jumped the gun, it is still nearing the end of his career. Prior to 2013, he had fought 44 times and suffered only one knockout. Since 2013, he has fought seven times and been knocked out thrice.

Cyborg World
The StrikeScore list above for Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos is based only on her Strikeforce and Elite XC bouts. It would actually be much higher if it included data from Invicta FC. In her five bouts for the promotion, she has picked up knockouts in all five. Her cumulative fight time was only a little bit over 32 minutes with 19 coming in her longest fight against Marloes Coenen.

Conor McGregor makes history and other stat notes from the UFC's three-fight weekend

By now pretty much everyone has heard that the Irish champion finished former champion Jose Aldo in only 13 seconds. The victory is the fastest finish in a UFC title fight. His career StrikeScore improved from 286 to 289. The improvement, combined with Aldo’s decline in score, leaves McGregor as the fighter with the highest StrikeScore among UFC ranked featherweights. That sounds about right. StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency, read about it here.

McGregor has finished five of his six bouts inside the Octagon. Per Fightmetric, he has scored five knockouts by throwing only 216 significant strikes, which means he scores a knockout about every 43 significant strikes. To put that number into perspective, 12 different fighters landed more than 43 significant strikes at UFC 194 and only one of those fighters won via knockout. Plus, McGregor has registered a knockdown is all of his knockout victories, so he finishes are coming via power strikes and not an accumulation of shots over time.

Over the course of his WEC/UFC career, Aldo had absorbed 408 significant strikes. He had never been knocked out or knocked down. McGregor changed all that with only 5 landed strikes.

Luke Rockhold was already in control before Chris Weidman’s poorly conceived spinning back fist
A lot has been made about Weidman’s spinning back fist being the turning point in the middleweight title bout. It is an easy talking point, and it will certainly be talked about more. However, Weidman’s striking production completely fell off a cliff after the first round. It is impossible to know whether or not things would have gone the same without the back fist. However, according to StrikeScore, Rockhold had already taken control of the fight.

Rockhold vs. Weidman StrikeScore by Round

Grappling Masters Demian Maia and Ryan Hall nullified their opponent’s striking offense
Despite McGregor’s historic performance, it was not all good news for his team SBG. On Friday, Ryan Hall used his attacking grappling game to totally stifle Artem Lobov. For the fight, Lobov attempted only 11 significant strikes and landed only two. Despite never seeming close to finishing the fight via strikes, Hall earned a whopping 1361 StrikeScore in the performance.

On Saturday, Lobov’s teammate Gunnar Nelson faced off against grappling ace Demian Maia. Nelson managed to attempt only four significant strikes and, like his teammate, only land two. Maia was a little bit more threatening with strikes than Hall, which shows in his StrikeScore of 2412. In his last two fights, Maia has only absorbed two significant strikes. 

StrikeScore per round scoring in controversial decisions
First, let’s preface this. StrikeScore only take into account striking, so it can’t and shouldn’t be used as the only criteria to pick a winner. However, striking is a large part of MMA, so it is interesting to look at controversial decisions compared to the judges’ cards. Check out the invaluable MMADecisions.com for judges and media cards for all events.

Yoel Romero vs. Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza
Official Winner: Romero (28-29, 29-27, 29-28)
Media Winner: Souza (11), Romero (2), Draw (3)

Romero vs. Jacare StrikeScore by Round

Yancy Medeiros vs. John Makdessi
Official Winner: Medeiros (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Media Winner: Makdessi (11), Medeiros (3)

Medeiros vs. Makdessi StrikeScore by Round

Ryan LaFlare vs. Mike Pierce
Official Winner: LaFlare (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Media Winner: LaFlare (7), Pierce (2)

LaFlare vs. Pierce StrikeScore by Round

Rose Namajunas prevents Paige VanZant's volume onslaught
Before last Thursday, VanZant had relied on her volume offensive striking to carry her to victories. Namajunas put a stop to that with better footwork and damaging blows. Coming into UFC Fight Night 80, VanZant had attempted 19 strikes per minute. Against Namajunas, she managed only 4 striking attempts per minute.

Referees need to stop encouraging stalling on the bottom
After the UFC’s resident bonus baby, Sage Northcutt was taken down by Cody Pfister, he had not interest in fighting or trying to get back to his feet. He simply latched onto Pfister and tried to prevent him from striking. Despite the stall tactic, Pfister was still able to land 30 of 33 strikes from the top position. The referee, Mark Smith still awarded the standup. After the stand up, Northcutt took down Pfister who immediately tried to start stalling as well.

Aljamain Sterling controls distance en route to another dominant win
Sterling’s wacky kicking offense did not appear to be doing very much. However, it allowed him to control the distance against a much more experienced striker in Johnny Eduardo. On the ground, Sterling had the clear advantage and finished the fight. He scored a 706 StrikeScore in the fight. In his UFC career, Sterling is absorbing less than 1 significant strike per minute. Unfortunately he is still one fight away from qualifying for Fightmetric records. Otherwise, he would take the crown as the fighter with the least strikes absorbed per minute in history of the promotion.