UFC 204 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 7 at 1:15 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 7 at 1:15 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

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Bisping vs. Henderson StrikeScore (Last 5 Fights)

For more information on Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson check out Richard Mann's preview on ESPN.com.

Belfort vs. Mousasi StrikeScore (Last 5 Fights)

Gegard Mousasi has one of the highest career StrikeScores at 400. Outside of his last loss against Uriah Hall, he has put up at least 572 in three of his last four bouts. Vitor Belfort has had negative StrikeScores in two of his last three bouts.

Saint Preux vs. Manuwa StrikeScore (Last 5 Fights)

Ovince Saint Preux absorbed more sig strikes against Jon Jones (105) than he did in his previous four fights. Jimi Manuwa started his UFC run with three-straight wins. He has been outstruck in all of his bouts since.

Struve vs. Omielanczuk StrikeScore (Last 5 Fights)

Stefan Struve's 9400 StrikeScore over Antonio Silva was one of the highest scores of the year, but it came against Antonio Silva. Daniel Omielanczuk has outstruck his opponents 118-47 since falling to Anthony Hamilton last year.

Bektic vs. Doane StrikeScore (Last 5 Fights)

In his three-fight UFC career, Mirsad Bektic might not have been very exciting, but he has been dominant defensively. His opponents have landed only 0.79 sig strikes per minute, and he avoids 75 percent of their strikes. Russell Doane has been taken down 10 times in five UFC fights and will likely end up stuck underneath Bektic in this fight.

UFC 199 Fight Forecast

In the main event of UFC 199, Luke Rockhold will look to defend his middleweight title against Michael Bisping. The two faced off for the first time at UFC Fight Night 55. On that night, Rockhold scored a second-round guillotine choke submission. In addition to the submission finish, Rockhold had the edge in the striking game. He finished with a 225 SS+, while Bisping had only a 30.

Not only did Rockhold out-perform Bisping in the striking game, he was also not at his best. His 225 SS+ performance is actually below his average (302) over his last 10 fights.

Bisping also performed below his average. While Rockhold was 77 points under, Bisping was 109 points below his average score.

With news breaking that Rockhold might not be a 100 percent due to a knee injury, Bisping might become a more attractive underdog. However, from a striking perspective at least, Rockhold has already proven that he can win without being at his best.

Dominick Cruz is a favorite across the board
If we look at the new StrikeScore Composite Prediction, Cruz is a huge favorite over his rival Urijah Faber. The Composite prediction is an average of the scaled metrics including StrikeScore, UFC Fantasy, Tapology, betting odds, DraftKings and Fight Matrix. Cruz is the favorite 73 to 27 percent.

Scaled Cruz vs. Faber III Predicitions

Fight Forecast
Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 6/3/2016 3:00 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 6/3/2016 3:00 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database **Ranking at welterweight ^Ranking at bantamweight ^^Ranking at light heavyweight

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database
**Ranking at welterweight
^Ranking at bantamweight
^^Ranking at light heavyweight

Fight Forecast for UFC on Fox 19

Saturday night the UFC returns with UFC on Fox 19. The event takes place at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla. Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 4/15/2016 12:45 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 4/15/2016 12:45 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

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Notes:

Lost Fight Pass Fight
In his MMA debut back in 2002, Glover Teixeira fell via knockout to Eric Schwartz. This remains his only knockout defeat of his career. The fight, as well as the rest of WEC 3 is missing from UFC Fight Pass.

Beneil Dariush’s last time out…

Power Issues
Over the course of his UFC career, Court McGee has landed 5.41 sig strikes per minute, which is a hair below tenth-best all time. However, he has never scored a knockout in the Octagon.

Always looking for the finish
John Dodson has gone 2-2 in fights that go the distance in the UFC. In fights that finish inside the distance, he is 4-0.

Contrasting Grapplers
Obviously Rose Namajunas will be looking to finish the fight via submission. During her three-fight UFC career, she has picked up both of her wins with rear-naked choke subs. Tecia Torres also likes the fight on the floor, but mostly to work from the top. She has average 1.13 takedown attempts per minute in the UFC, but she has only be able to land three of them. However, in their first fight, Torres was mostly interested in standing up.

Can you say top-position grappler?
Hacran Dias has won all of his UFC fight via decision, and he has never landed more sig strikes than his opponent in an individual fight.

Elusive for a Reason
In two UFC fights, Islam Makhachev has absorbed only 10 sig strikes. With that being said, Adriano Martins only needed to land three to finish the Degestani fighter at UFC 192.

StrikeScore’s KO Factor at Work
Cezar Ferreira has been knocked out in three of his seven bouts in the UFC. Without the knockout losses, his StrikeScore would be 80, but with the KO penalty it falls all the way to 37. Oluwale Bamgbose’s UFC career StrikeScore jumped from -41 to 111 after he finished Daniel Sarafian at UFC Fight Night 83.