UFC on Fox 25 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of July 20 at 11:00 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of July 20 at 11:00 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2015 to 7/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

'Wonderboy' posts highest score against Hendricks and other notes from UFC Fight Night 82

Stephen Thompson upset former champion Johny Hendricks. In the process, he registered a 464 StrikeScore. That is the highest number ever put up against Hendricks over the course of his WEC/UFC career. The 464 StrikeScore is nearly double the previous high score against Hendricks, Alex Serdyukov who put up 238 in 2009.

In a little over three minutes, Thompson landed 24 strikes at a 52 percent rate. Probably more impressively, he was able to stuff two takedown attempts from the multiple-time NCAA wrestler. It was a big night for the Wonderboy.

Roy Nelson starts slow, but turns the tide against Jared Rosholt
In the opening frame, Nelson managed to only land six significant strikes. However, in the next two rounds, he was able to settle down and pick apart Rosholt on the feet. After a -8 StrikeScore in round one, Nelson scored 187 and 227 for the final two rounds. 

Nelson vs. Rosholt StrikeScore by Round 1

OSP is boom or bust
Ovince Saint Preux utterly dominated former Strikeforce champion Rafael Feijao. Despite rolling his ankle early in the fight, he was able to earn a whopping 521 StrikeScore. Over the course of his last three fights, OSP has managed to score 200 or over in all of his victories. However, he has been forced under 100 in all of his defeats.

St. Preux Recent Career StrikeScore

Derrick Lewis is not going to decision
Lewis is 4-2 in his six-fight UFC career. All six of those fights have ended via knockout. His run is a microcosm of heavyweight MMA outside of the top-ten in 2016.

In a lot of ways, people are overlooking Lewis’ most recent victory. Grabowski is the best fighter that he has beaten to date. Damian Grabowski has a Fight Matrix Highest Quarterly Ranking (HQR) of 12. In his only other fight against a competitor with a HQR in the top 20, Matt Mitrione (13), Lewis was on the wrong side of a devastating knockout. 

Output issues for Ray Borg
On Saturday, Borg suffered his second UFC loss. For most of his career, Borg has relied on his superior grappling to control his opponents. However, Scoggins showed up better footwork and picked apart Borg on the outside. For Borg to be successful against better competition, he will need to devise a new strategy to land strikes. Over the course of his UFC career, he has struggle with output. 

On Saturday, he only landed 20 sig strikes over the course of the three-round fight. That is not a very impressive number, but it is actually close to his career high. In his previous fight against Geane Herrera, he landed 26 sig strikes.

1.31 sig strikes per minute is an extremely low rate. If he can’t get his opponents down, he should try clinching along the fence and landed from there, also known as the Randy Couture strategy. 

Updated Top Ten Striking Performances
Four performances from last weekend’s card entered the StrikeScore MMA Top Ten Striking Performances rankings. Lewis had the best score with a 1539 for his destruction of Grabowski.

1Anthony JohnsonRyan BaderUFC on Fox 181/30/20169500
2Sheldon WestcottEdgar GarciaUFC 1951/2/20163424
3Derrick LewisDamian GrabowskiUFC Fight Night 822/6/20161539
4Chris WadeMehdi BaghdadUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016590
5Rob FontJoey GomezUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016570
6Patrick CoteBen SaundersUFC Fight Night 811/17/2016547
7Rafael NatalKevin CaseyUFC on Fox 181/30/2016531
8Ovince Saint PreuxRafael FeijaoUFC Fight Night 822/6/2016521
9Stephen ThompsonJohny HendricksUFC Fight Night 822/6/2016464
10Alex WhiteArtem LobovUFC Fight Night 822/6/2016453