UFC 216 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 6 at 9:15 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 6 at 9:15 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2015 to 7/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

June 2016 Striking Performance of the Month: Ali Bagautinov

The race for the June Striker of the Month was one of the closest yet. Ali Bagautinov’s StrikeScore for his victory over Geane Herrera (731) narrowly beat out Beneil Dariush’s score against James Vick (728). Bagautinov landed 90 sig strikes, while absorbing only 13. He landed 72 percent of his sig strikes en route to a one-sided decision.

Neither score was good enough to crack the top-ten list for 2016.


RankFighterOpponentEventDateStrikeScore
1Alejandro PerezIan EntwistleUFC Fight Night 864/10/201611800
2Marcos Rogerio de LimaClint HesterUFC 1974/23/20169800
3Anthony JohnsonRyan BaderUFC on Fox 181/30/20169500
3Chris CamozziJoe RiggsUFC Fight Night 832/21/20169500
5Stefan StruveAntonio SilvaUFC FN 875/8/20169400
6Derek BrunsonRoan CarneiroUFC Fight Night 832/21/20166800
7Damian StasiakFilip PejicUFC Fight Night 864/10/20166700
8Teemu PackalenThibault GoutiUFC Fight Night 842/27/20165900
9Oluwale BamgboseDaniel SarafianUFC Fight Night 832/21/20164800
10Sheldon WestcottEdgar GarciaUFC 1951/2/20163424

UFC 199 Fight Forecast

In the main event of UFC 199, Luke Rockhold will look to defend his middleweight title against Michael Bisping. The two faced off for the first time at UFC Fight Night 55. On that night, Rockhold scored a second-round guillotine choke submission. In addition to the submission finish, Rockhold had the edge in the striking game. He finished with a 225 SS+, while Bisping had only a 30.

Not only did Rockhold out-perform Bisping in the striking game, he was also not at his best. His 225 SS+ performance is actually below his average (302) over his last 10 fights.

Bisping also performed below his average. While Rockhold was 77 points under, Bisping was 109 points below his average score.

With news breaking that Rockhold might not be a 100 percent due to a knee injury, Bisping might become a more attractive underdog. However, from a striking perspective at least, Rockhold has already proven that he can win without being at his best.

Dominick Cruz is a favorite across the board
If we look at the new StrikeScore Composite Prediction, Cruz is a huge favorite over his rival Urijah Faber. The Composite prediction is an average of the scaled metrics including StrikeScore, UFC Fantasy, Tapology, betting odds, DraftKings and Fight Matrix. Cruz is the favorite 73 to 27 percent.

Scaled Cruz vs. Faber III Predicitions

Fight Forecast
Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 6/3/2016 3:00 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 6/3/2016 3:00 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database **Ranking at welterweight ^Ranking at bantamweight ^^Ranking at light heavyweight

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database
**Ranking at welterweight
^Ranking at bantamweight
^^Ranking at light heavyweight

Fight Forecast for UFC on Fox 19

Saturday night the UFC returns with UFC on Fox 19. The event takes place at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla. Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 4/15/2016 12:45 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 4/15/2016 12:45 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

On Fox 19 Fight Forecast Screenshot.png

Notes:

Lost Fight Pass Fight
In his MMA debut back in 2002, Glover Teixeira fell via knockout to Eric Schwartz. This remains his only knockout defeat of his career. The fight, as well as the rest of WEC 3 is missing from UFC Fight Pass.

Beneil Dariush’s last time out…

Power Issues
Over the course of his UFC career, Court McGee has landed 5.41 sig strikes per minute, which is a hair below tenth-best all time. However, he has never scored a knockout in the Octagon.

Always looking for the finish
John Dodson has gone 2-2 in fights that go the distance in the UFC. In fights that finish inside the distance, he is 4-0.

Contrasting Grapplers
Obviously Rose Namajunas will be looking to finish the fight via submission. During her three-fight UFC career, she has picked up both of her wins with rear-naked choke subs. Tecia Torres also likes the fight on the floor, but mostly to work from the top. She has average 1.13 takedown attempts per minute in the UFC, but she has only be able to land three of them. However, in their first fight, Torres was mostly interested in standing up.

Can you say top-position grappler?
Hacran Dias has won all of his UFC fight via decision, and he has never landed more sig strikes than his opponent in an individual fight.

Elusive for a Reason
In two UFC fights, Islam Makhachev has absorbed only 10 sig strikes. With that being said, Adriano Martins only needed to land three to finish the Degestani fighter at UFC 192.

StrikeScore’s KO Factor at Work
Cezar Ferreira has been knocked out in three of his seven bouts in the UFC. Without the knockout losses, his StrikeScore would be 80, but with the KO penalty it falls all the way to 37. Oluwale Bamgbose’s UFC career StrikeScore jumped from -41 to 111 after he finished Daniel Sarafian at UFC Fight Night 83.