UFC Fight Night 121 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 17 at 10:30 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 17 at 10:30 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

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Trevin Giles puts up 1205 StrikeScore at UFC 213

Trevin Giles made his UFC debut with a bang. He earned a 1205 StrikeScore for his one-sided victory over James Bochnovic. He landed 41 significant strikes, while Bochnovic only managed to land 5. The following table is ranked by StrikeScore.

UFC 213 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of July 7 at 9:30 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of July 7 at 9:30 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

Using the information above StrikeScore uses an Excel Solver tool to calculate the best possible DraftKings lineups using each different criterion. The following table shows the best lineup based on the criteria. For the StrikeScore team, fighters with fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database are not considered. For the DraftKings Points team, fighters without previous UFC fights are not considered. Odds/Finish is the average of a fighter's odds to win and his/her odds to finish the first inside the distance. Any advice offered as part of Fight Forecast is the opinion of the website. With that, StrikeScore is not responsible for the success of the article in recommending specific players to readers.

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UFC 208 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Feb. 10 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Feb. 10 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 4/1/2015 to 1/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than 3 fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than 3 fights in the FightMetric database

2017 Prediction Tracker
StrikeScore: 6-9 40%
UFC Fantasy: 21-15 58%
Tapology: 38-17 69%
Odds: 31-12 72%
DraftKings Value: 23-9 72%
DraftKings Points: 16-12 57%
Fight Matrix: 23-23 50%
Rankings Momentum: 21-23 $8%

UFC Fight Night 94 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 9/16/2016 11:30 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 9/16/2016 11:30 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with less than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fighter with less than three fights in FightMetric database

Since falling to Conor McGregor, Dustin Poirier has outlanded his opponents 159 to 79.

Michael Johnson does not really differentiate himself from his opponents. His opponents land nearly as many sig strikes per minute as he does (3.46-3.89). His opponents land 40 percent of their sig strikes, while Johnson only lands 35.

Uriah Hall is 1-4 in UFC fights that go to decision. Hall’s ranking jumped up significantly following upset over Gegard Mousasi, which explains his 45.65 Rankings Momentum.

In his last three fights, Derek Brunson has outlanded his opponents 61 to 4 and scored three knockouts.

Evan Dunham throws a ton of volume. He lands a respectable number of sig strikes per minute, 5.37, while only landing 38 percent.

Rick Glenn’s ranking peaked at #17 after he defeated Georgi Karakhanyan for the WSOF title. It has since leveled off.

Since returning from an over six-year layoff in 2015, “Jucao” has landed one sig strikes in two UFC bouts.

Chris Wade had scored 11 takedowns without being taken down himself prior to his last fight. Against Rustam Khabilov, he failed to land a takedown for the first time in his UFC career and allow Khabilov to land 6 of 9 takedown attempts.

Islam Makhachev’s UFC career has been a tale of two fights. In his debut, he thoroughly outstruck Leo Kuntz 32 to 7. However, in his last fight, he was knocked out on only three punches by Adriano Martins.

Chas Skelly has never really been much of a striker, but his last fight really hurt him from a numbers perspective. Against Darren Elkins, he was outstruck 104 to 27, which dropped his UFC per minute striking differential to -1.51.

Maximo Blanco and Skelly should be an interesting freestyle vs. folkstyle wrestling battle. Blanco has landed 11 takedowns in his UFC/Strikeforce career. However, against the best wrestler he has faced, Pat Healy, he allowed five takedowns and fell via submission.

So far in his UFC career, Gabriel Benitez has avoided 71 percent of his opponent’s strikes. However, Andre Fili only needed to landed 16 sig strikes to finish him at UFC Fight Night 78.

Like most fighters with a StrikeScore under 100, Sam Sicilia lands fewer sig strikes than his opponents (2.74 slpm vs 3.33) and at a worse rate (37 percent to 43)

Augusto Montano has been takedown and had his guard passed in both of his UFC fights and Chris Heatherly and Cathal Pendred.

In his UFC debut, Belal Muhammad landed over five sig strikes per minute and absorbed over five sig strikes per minute. Against Alan Jouban, defense was optional.

Antonio Carlos Junior is returning to action after suffering his first career knockout loss against Daniel Kelly.

In his UFC debut, Leonardo Leleco was outstruck 64 to 57 by Anthony Smith. However, he got into a groove in the third round. In the final frame, he outlanded Smith 39 to 6.

Jose Quinonez picked up his first career submission victory over Leonardo Morales in his last outing.

In his UFC debut, Joey Gomez struggled. Rob Font landed 52 sig strikes and finished him late in the second round.

Erick Montano landed two takedowns in his UFC debut against Enrique Marin, but he landed zero sig strikes on the ground.

Randy Brown’s striking game was shut down in his last fight by the wrestling of Michael Graves. However, Brown successfully defended five of seven takedown attempts and absorbed only 11 sig strikes.

Alejandro Perez scored the highest StrikeScore of the year (11800) against Ian Entwistle. In the fight, he landed 48 sig strikes while absorbing none. 

After making his professional debut in 2015, Albert Morales broke into the Fight Matrix rankings at #444 featherweight after defeating Anthony Paredes at World Series of Fighting 28.

UFC Fight Night 90 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 7/7/2016 9:00 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 7/7/2016 9:00 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fighter with than three fights in FightMetric database

Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez
StrikeScore gives Dos Anjos the advantage in the striking battle. However, the career numbers do not tell the whole story. Over the course of his last four fights against Benson Henderson, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone, Dos Anjos has put up 342, 1026, 224 and 754 respectively.

The FightMetric database does not include stats from Alvarez’s Bellator career, so the number is composed of fights in Dream, Elite XC and the UFC. In the Octagon, he has been outstruck in all of his fights and overall 121 to 171.

Roy Nelson vs. Derrick Lewis
Nelson’s StrikeScore is even lower when you take out the knockout adjustment. It falls all the way to 13. Remember that a fighter with a score of 100 is even with his/her opponents. A large contributor to his low StrikeScore is the fact that opposition lands 53 percent of their sig strikes against him.

All of Lewis’ fights in the UFC have ended via knockout. He is extremely accurate (59 percent striking accuracy) but he also eats a lot of shots (36 percent striking defense). This fight will likely be decided by who can land the big power strikes early.

Alan Jouban vs. Belal Muhammad
From an offensive perspective, Jouban is a gifted striker. He landed 5.16 sig strikes per minute and had ended half of his UFC fights via knockout.

Muhammad is a Titan FC veteran who is making his UFC debut. He is the higher ranked fighter per Fight Matrix (53 to 79) and has respectable Rankings Momentum (6.21).

Joe Duffy vs. Mitch Clarke
Both of these fighters’ low StrikeScores stand out. Duffy’s score has not recovered from his fight against Dustin Poirier. The American Top Team product landed 72 sig strikes while Duffy only managed 37. On the other hand, Clarke has struggled in the striking department. On top of that, he has been taken down 12 times in five UFC fights.

Mike Pyle vs. Alberto Mina
Pyle is clearly the more advanced and varied striker. His StrikeScore has taken a hit as he had been knocked out in four of his last five losses. Mina has less than three fights in the UFC, so we are working with too small of a sample. He has only fought a fighter not on the UFC level and a broken down Yoshihiro Akiyama.

John Makdessi vs. Mehdi Baghdad
Over the course of his UFC career, Makdessi has proven hard to hit. Opponent’s land only 28 percent of sig strikes against him. That should make things tough for Baghdad. He managed to land only one sig strike in his UFC debut before falling via submission.

Anthony Birchak vs. Dileno Lopes
Birchak does not land at a very high percentage, but he makes up for it with volume. The end result is that he lands an impressive 6.64 sig strikes per minute.

Russell Doane vs. Pedro Munhoz
Doane is an aggressive fighter who is not afraid to come forward. That might be an issue for Munhoz. He allows 6.10 sig strikes against per minute. In his two losses to Jimmie Rivera and Raphael Assuncao, opponents landed 96 and 100 sig strikes against respectively.

Felipe Arantes vs. Jerrod Sanders.
Arantes is the rightful favorite. Sanders comes from a wrestling background and has struggled to incorporate an overall MMA game. In order to have a chance here, he will need to throw more strikes. Sanders lands 66 percent of his sig strikes, but his volume is incredible low. He lands only 0.87 sig strikes per minute.

Titan FC 38 Fight Forecast

For UFC events, StrikeScoreMMA.com puts together a Fight Forecast. The preview shows the fighter's StrikeScore, betting odds, fantasy stats and so on. However, there are not fantasy numbers available for non-UFC events and striking stats are rarely available. So, using Fight Matrix numbers, we have come up with the following Fight Forecast for Titan FC 38. The table below shows the fighter's current ranking, Rankings Momentum, peak ranking and the date of the quarter in which the fighter had their peak ranking.

In this case, the period use for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. Betting odds are from 5Dimes as of April 29 at 11:00 AM EST.

The event takes place April 30 at the Miccosukee Casino in Miami. The main card will air live on UFC Fight Pass.