UFC 218 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 1 at 2:10 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 1 at 2:10 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric

UFC 209 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of March 3 at 9:50 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of March 3 at 9:50 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 4/1/2015 to 1/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

UFC Fight Night 99 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 18 at 11:15 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 18 at 11:15 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2015 to 10/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with less than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fighter with less than three fights in FightMetric database

On Saturday, former Strikeforce and Dream champion Gegard Mousasi returns to action. He will try to avenge his only loss since 2014 against Uriah Hall. The knockout loss against Hall was probably one of the most shocking upsets of 2015. Not only because was it a jumping, spinning back kick, but also because Mousasi is one of the most tactical strikers in middleweight history. His 414 StrikeScore is the highest among ranked middleweights (UFC rankings). His abnormally high score is due mostly to his outlier defense statistics. Sure, Mousasi lands 3.67 sig strikes per minute. That is nothing to sneeze at, but his 1.17 sig strikes absorbed per minute is best in the rankings. He also allows opponents to land only 31 percent of their sig strike attempts. 

The following scatter plot highlight's Mousasi's outlier status in terms of defensive striking.

As previously stated, while Mousasi's defensive numbers are far and away the best, his offensive numbers are also above average. In the following table, best stats are listed in blue, while worst are listed in red.

TUF 23 Finale Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 7/8/2016 9:00 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 7/8/2016 9:00 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighters with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database

*Fighters with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Claudia Gadelha
The only fighter who has come close to defeating Jedrzejczyk in the UFC is Gadelha. If we remove the Gadelha fight from the Polish fighter’s StrikeScore actually bumps up another 29 points. 

Gadelha might not be able to win a striking battle, but her wrestling might end up being the difference. She lands 5.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and finishes 61 percent of her attempts.

Andrew Sanchez vs. Khalil Rountree
Tatiana Suarez vs. Amanda Cooper

Going into the 23rd season of TUF, Sanchez (#71) and Rountree (#203) were both ranked at middleweight in the Fight Matrix rankings. Of the fighters in their division, they were fourth and ninth in terms of ranking. Neither Suarez or Cooper were ranked before the show and they beat out two fighters Kate Jackson (#17) and Ashley Cummins (#7) who had peak rankings in the top 20.

Ross Pearson vs. Will Brooks
Pearson has alternated wins and losses in the UFC since 2014. In his last fight, he scored a decision victory over Chad Laprise despite losing the StrikeScore 58 to 159. Brooks is a big favorite and for good reason. He is currently #4 at lightweight per Fight Matrix. Bellator champions in the UFC have been a mixed bag. Eddie Alvarez has proven he belongs while Hector Lombard has been up and down. The only fight listed in the FightMetric database for Brooks is his second-round destruction of Satoru Kitaoka, which explains the high StrikeScore

Doo Ho Choi vs. Thiago Tavares
It is a small sample size, but… Choi has landed 15.14 sig strikes per minute in the UFC and finished two opponents in a combined 111 seconds. He takes his biggest step up in competition here.

As the StrikeScore shows, Tavares is not really a striker. He has come a long way and is not getting knocked out by guys like Shane Roller anymore. However, he will need to get this fight on the floor to be successful.