UFC Fight Night 123 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 8 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 8 at 10:00 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

UFC Fight Night 123 Screener.png

Final StrikeScores for UFC 214

At UFC 214, Ricardo Lamas made quick work of Jason Knight. He landed 42 significant strikes at a 67 percent clip while only absorbing eight. For his efforts, he had the highest StrikeScore of the night at 830. To find out more about stat, which measures striking efficiency, click here.

UFC 214 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of July 27 at 3:30 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of July 27 at 3:30 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2015 to 7/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

UFC on Fox 24 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of April 14 at 9:40 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of April 14 at 9:40 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

UFC on Fox 23 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Jan. 27 at 9:30 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Jan. 27 at 9:30 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 4/1/2015 to 1/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

2017 Prediction Tracker:
StrikeScore: 3-2 66%
UFC Fantasy: 7-5 58%
Tapology: 17-5 77%
Odds: 11-4 73%
DraftKings Value: 8-2 80%
DraftKings Points: 7-4 64%
Fight Matrix: 12-8 60%
Rankings Momentum: 8-9 47%

Cody Garbrandt remains power king of UFC bantamweight division and other notes from UFC Fight Night 88

Going into UFC Fight Night 88, StrikeScoreMMA.com noted both Cody Garbrandt and Thomas Almeida had power in their strikes. On Sunday night, Garbrandt’s power won out, and he scored a first-round knockout. The Team Alpha Male product secured the KO with only 21 significant strikes landed. That number dropped his sig strike per knockout number to 48. Prior to card, Garbrandt’s ratio was 62, which was good enough for first among ranked bantamweights. The updated table show the sig strike per knockout ratio of all fighters in the UFC bantamweight rankings.

The following chart shows the evolution of Garbrandt’s sig strike per knockout ratio over the course of his UFC career. Each point shows his cumulative ratio following the fight listed on the x axis. At this rate, he might not be done picking up quick finishes.

Cody Garbrandt Sig Strike Per KO

Bryan Caraway grinds away Aljamain Sterling
Many pundits seemed to label Sterling the preordained winner of this grudge match. However, after a shaky first round, Caraway did enough in the next two rounds to take the decision. Sterling showed flashes early, but he inability to score at distance played into Caraway’s hands. "Kid Lightning" managed to win the decision despite landing only 9 sig strikes and putting up a -14 StrikeScore. Caraway is the first fighter in 2016 to win a decision with a negative StrikeScore.

The following chart show Sterling’s total striking percentage overall and at distance (that is, on the feet, not in the clinch). Most fighters are less accurate at distance. However, Sterling’s dropoff is rather drastic.

Aljamain Sterling Striking Percentage (Total Strikes and at Distance)

Shane Campbell needs to round out game
In 2016, Campbell has gone 0-2 in the UFC. Against both James Krause and Erik Koch, Campbell was unable to deal with his opponents’ grappling. He dropped a decision to Krause and submitted to Koch last weekend. In both fights, he dominated the striking in terms of StrikeScore: 224 against Krause and 189 against Koch. Both Krause and Koch are respected strikers, so Campbell’s accomplishment is impressive. However, it means very little without wins.

Stefan Struve wraps up May Striker of the Month honors
Nobody on UFC Fight Night 88 was able to enter the StrikeScore Most Efficient Striking Performance Top 10, which means that Stefan Struve takes home the honors for the month of May for his 16-second knockout of Antonio Silva.


RankFighterOpponentEventDateStrikeScore
1Alejandro PerezIan EntwistleUFC Fight Night 864/10/201611800
2Marcos Rogerio de LimaClint HesterUFC 1974/23/20169800
3Anthony JohnsonRyan BaderUFC on Fox 181/30/20169500
3Chris CamozziJoe RiggsUFC Fight Night 832/21/20169500
5Stefan StruveAntonio SilvaUFC FN 875/8/20169400
6Derek BrunsonRoan CarneiroUFC Fight Night 832/21/20166800
7Damian StasiakFilip PejicUFC Fight Night 864/10/20166700
8Teemu PackalenThibault GoutiUFC Fight Night 842/27/20165900
9Oluwale BamgboseDaniel SarafianUFC Fight Night 832/21/20164800
10Sheldon WestcottEdgar GarciaUFC 1951/2/20163424

Conor McGregor makes history and other stat notes from the UFC's three-fight weekend

By now pretty much everyone has heard that the Irish champion finished former champion Jose Aldo in only 13 seconds. The victory is the fastest finish in a UFC title fight. His career StrikeScore improved from 286 to 289. The improvement, combined with Aldo’s decline in score, leaves McGregor as the fighter with the highest StrikeScore among UFC ranked featherweights. That sounds about right. StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency, read about it here.

McGregor has finished five of his six bouts inside the Octagon. Per Fightmetric, he has scored five knockouts by throwing only 216 significant strikes, which means he scores a knockout about every 43 significant strikes. To put that number into perspective, 12 different fighters landed more than 43 significant strikes at UFC 194 and only one of those fighters won via knockout. Plus, McGregor has registered a knockdown is all of his knockout victories, so he finishes are coming via power strikes and not an accumulation of shots over time.

Over the course of his WEC/UFC career, Aldo had absorbed 408 significant strikes. He had never been knocked out or knocked down. McGregor changed all that with only 5 landed strikes.

Luke Rockhold was already in control before Chris Weidman’s poorly conceived spinning back fist
A lot has been made about Weidman’s spinning back fist being the turning point in the middleweight title bout. It is an easy talking point, and it will certainly be talked about more. However, Weidman’s striking production completely fell off a cliff after the first round. It is impossible to know whether or not things would have gone the same without the back fist. However, according to StrikeScore, Rockhold had already taken control of the fight.

Rockhold vs. Weidman StrikeScore by Round

Grappling Masters Demian Maia and Ryan Hall nullified their opponent’s striking offense
Despite McGregor’s historic performance, it was not all good news for his team SBG. On Friday, Ryan Hall used his attacking grappling game to totally stifle Artem Lobov. For the fight, Lobov attempted only 11 significant strikes and landed only two. Despite never seeming close to finishing the fight via strikes, Hall earned a whopping 1361 StrikeScore in the performance.

On Saturday, Lobov’s teammate Gunnar Nelson faced off against grappling ace Demian Maia. Nelson managed to attempt only four significant strikes and, like his teammate, only land two. Maia was a little bit more threatening with strikes than Hall, which shows in his StrikeScore of 2412. In his last two fights, Maia has only absorbed two significant strikes. 

StrikeScore per round scoring in controversial decisions
First, let’s preface this. StrikeScore only take into account striking, so it can’t and shouldn’t be used as the only criteria to pick a winner. However, striking is a large part of MMA, so it is interesting to look at controversial decisions compared to the judges’ cards. Check out the invaluable MMADecisions.com for judges and media cards for all events.

Yoel Romero vs. Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza
Official Winner: Romero (28-29, 29-27, 29-28)
Media Winner: Souza (11), Romero (2), Draw (3)

Romero vs. Jacare StrikeScore by Round

Yancy Medeiros vs. John Makdessi
Official Winner: Medeiros (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Media Winner: Makdessi (11), Medeiros (3)

Medeiros vs. Makdessi StrikeScore by Round

Ryan LaFlare vs. Mike Pierce
Official Winner: LaFlare (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Media Winner: LaFlare (7), Pierce (2)

LaFlare vs. Pierce StrikeScore by Round

Rose Namajunas prevents Paige VanZant's volume onslaught
Before last Thursday, VanZant had relied on her volume offensive striking to carry her to victories. Namajunas put a stop to that with better footwork and damaging blows. Coming into UFC Fight Night 80, VanZant had attempted 19 strikes per minute. Against Namajunas, she managed only 4 striking attempts per minute.

Referees need to stop encouraging stalling on the bottom
After the UFC’s resident bonus baby, Sage Northcutt was taken down by Cody Pfister, he had not interest in fighting or trying to get back to his feet. He simply latched onto Pfister and tried to prevent him from striking. Despite the stall tactic, Pfister was still able to land 30 of 33 strikes from the top position. The referee, Mark Smith still awarded the standup. After the stand up, Northcutt took down Pfister who immediately tried to start stalling as well.

Aljamain Sterling controls distance en route to another dominant win
Sterling’s wacky kicking offense did not appear to be doing very much. However, it allowed him to control the distance against a much more experienced striker in Johnny Eduardo. On the ground, Sterling had the clear advantage and finished the fight. He scored a 706 StrikeScore in the fight. In his UFC career, Sterling is absorbing less than 1 significant strike per minute. Unfortunately he is still one fight away from qualifying for Fightmetric records. Otherwise, he would take the crown as the fighter with the least strikes absorbed per minute in history of the promotion.