For RotoWire: Fight Stat Wrap: UFC 218 Recap

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UFC 218 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 1 at 2:10 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 1 at 2:10 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2016 to 10/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric

Trevin Giles puts up 1205 StrikeScore at UFC 213

Trevin Giles made his UFC debut with a bang. He earned a 1205 StrikeScore for his one-sided victory over James Bochnovic. He landed 41 significant strikes, while Bochnovic only managed to land 5. The following table is ranked by StrikeScore.

UFC 213 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of July 7 at 9:30 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of July 7 at 9:30 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2015 to 4/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database

Using the information above StrikeScore uses an Excel Solver tool to calculate the best possible DraftKings lineups using each different criterion. The following table shows the best lineup based on the criteria. For the StrikeScore team, fighters with fewer than three fights in the FightMetric database are not considered. For the DraftKings Points team, fighters without previous UFC fights are not considered. Odds/Finish is the average of a fighter's odds to win and his/her odds to finish the first inside the distance. Any advice offered as part of Fight Forecast is the opinion of the website. With that, StrikeScore is not responsible for the success of the article in recommending specific players to readers.

UFC 213 DK Lineups.png

UFC 209 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of March 3 at 9:50 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of March 3 at 9:50 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 4/1/2015 to 1/1/2017. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

UFC 203 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 9/9/2016 4:30 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 9/9/2016 4:30 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with less than three bouts in the FightMetric database

*Fighter with less than three bouts in the FightMetric database


Stipe Miocic has scored knockouts in six of 11 bouts in the UFC. In his last five fights, he is scoring 0.077 knockouts per minute.

Alistair Overeem's accuracy is best in UFC history and prevents counters.

Prior to his title fight against Miocic, Fabricio Werdum had only knocked out once by Junior dos Santos in 2008.

When Travis Browne loses, he tends to get blown out. In his five UFC losses, he has been outstruck 295 to 111.

During his scripted WWE career, CM Punk went 425-245-31. Despite having a supposed BJJ background, only 28 of those 425 victories came via submission. However, he was strong defensively on the ground. He was submitted only six times in 701 matches. (Stats via ProFightdb.com)

Mickey Gall landed only one sig strikes in his 45-second submission victory over Michael Jackson in his UFC debut.

Urijah Faber actually avoids 64 percent of his opponent's sig strikes, but he also lands at a low percentage 41 percent.

After three UFC fights, Jimmie Rivera is landing nearly five sig strikes per minute. In his last fight, he landed three of five takedowns.

In her first fight at 115 pounds, Jessica Andrade landed 14.75 sig strikes per minute, well above her normal mark of 6.58.

Joanne Calderwood is one fight short of qualify for UFC record. After four UFC fights, she is landed 7.35 sig strikes per minute, which is better than the current record holder Nikita Krylov (6.94).

Excluding her fight against Leslie Smith, Jessica Eye has been outstruck in the UFC 254 to 208.

Bethe Correia fought for a UFC title despite never being above #10 in the Fight Matrix Quarterly Generated Historical Rankings.

Brad Tavares has landed 463 sig strikes in the UFC but registered only one knockout He scored one against Phi Baroni in 2011.

During his last three fights, Caio Magalhaes has spent less than five minutes total in the Octagon.

Nik Lentz has landed 54 takedowns in his UFC career which is seventh best all time.

Per Fight Matrix, Michael McBride's peak ranking at #293 at lightweight in the first quarter of 2016.

After accounting for his four knockout losses, CB Dollaway's StrikeScore falls from 126 to 102.

Francimar Barroso's number of significant strikes landed and absorbed are virtually identical (2.82 landed and 2.85 absorbed).

Some people are just not into defense. Yancy Medeiros absorbs over five sig strikes per minute and avoids only 44 percent of his opponent's strikes. That explains his incredibly low StrikeScore (32).

Remember when Sean Spencer was robbed against Cathal Pendred?

In his UFC/Strikeforce career, Drew Dober has been outstruck 223 to 173.

From 2012 to today, Jason Gonzalez has more than doubled his Fight Matrix rankings points, 23 to 51. He is currently ranked #200 lightweight.

UFC Fight Night 87 Fight Forecast

Any attempt at using analytics in sports is going to be hampered by varying levels of competition. This is even more of an issue in combat sports. Fighters can build immaculate records without facing any real opposition or pad their striking stats against tomato cans.

In the main event of UFC Fight Night 87, Alistair Overeem holds the career StrikeScore advantage over Andrei Arlovski 309 to 157 respectively. The proprietary stat, in its raw form, measures striking efficiency without opponent adjustment. Overeem’s score is one of the highest recorded, but since the stat uses data from all bouts in the Fight Metric database, it includes fights like the Reem’s 36-second knockout of professional wrestler Tomohiko Hashimoto.

So, to cut through the noise and provide a clearer picture of this fight, we have implemented the following strategies. The first step is to compare the performance of Overeem and Arlovski against the rest of the ranked fighters in the UFC heavyweight division. Second, for this exercise we will only include the last five fights listed in the database. Third, we will measure not just striking performance but also level of competition.

The end result is the following scatter plot. The X axis is the average Fight Matrix rankings of the fighter’s last five opponents (with No. 1 being best), while the Y axis is the average of the fighter’s last five StrikeScores.

As you can see Arlovski has faced slightly better competition, but Overeem blows him away in terms of striking performance. Striking wise, Overeem is the big favorite and that is reflected in the betting odds.

Also of note, the large cluster of points shows that the UFC continually does a good job of making fights between top fighters. In boxing, or even other MMA promotions, the dots would most likely be more spread along the X axis.

Fight Forecast


Other Notes:

That’s her?
Before signing with Strikeforce in 2011, Germaine de Randamie was probably best known in the U.S. as a viral video star of sorts. She faced male Belgian actor Tom Waes in a kickboxing match and scored a pretty sweet knockout

Mad Dog Ground Game
Reza Madadi has been unable to capture a UFC victory unless he catches a submission. Yan Cabral is a much more classically trained grappler and has never been tapped in MMA. On top of that, Cabral has cut down to lightweight after starting his career at middleweight and that size advantage will pay dividends in a grappling battle. 

Race to be the second best flyweight
If you throw out his title challenge against Demetrious Johnson, Kyoji Horiguchi has the sig strike advantage over his opposition 248-134. In terms of common opponent, both Horiguchi and Neil Seery have scored stoppage victories over Jon Delos Reyes. Horiguchi knocked him out in 2014, while Seery scored a second-round submission last fall.

Sailing in Dangerous Waters
Leon Edwards
has looked pretty solid in the UFC when he was not stuck on the bottom against Kamaru Usman. This fight will likely play out on the feet, which is bad news for Dominic Waters. In his two UFC fights, he has been outstruck 60 to 13 in sig strikes and he failed to land in his last fight against Dong Hyun Kim.

Negative Scores
Both Yuta Sasaki and Willie Gates have negative StrikeScores after three fights in the Octagon. Sasaki is mostly a grappler, while Gates has engaged in some ill advised brawls. The opener will be an interesting contrast between refined ground skill and physicality.