On Saturday, Glory returns with Glory 45, which will air on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN3. In the main event, featherweight champion Robin Van Roosmalen will defend his title against Serhiy Adamchuk. Since it is a slow weekend for major MMA, StrikeScore will attempt to predict the winner of this featherweight title fight.
The first step to developing a predictive model based on statistics is determining which statistics to include. The criteria used for judging in Glory are the following:
1. Number of knockdowns.
2. Damage inflicted on the opponent.
3. Number of clean strikes with spectacular techniques (flying and spinning techniques, etc.)
4. Number of clean strikes with normal techniques.
5. Degree of Aggressiveness or Ring Generalship (whichever has greater impact on the round)
Unfortunately, many of those criteria are not measurable with statistics, and some are even hard to quantify in any possible way such as damage. For example, is swollen eye worth more than a busted lip? Anyways, for the purpose of this model, StrikeScore will use four simple stats: significant strikes landed per minute, significant strikes absorbed per minute, knockdowns landed per fight and knockdowns absorbed per fight. Since clean strikes and knockdowns are the only measurable criteria listed, the model will focus on those.
The model will be a modified and simplified version of the flagship StrikeScore formula. The formula usually includes striking accuracy and defense, but those are not part of the judging criteria and therefore not likely to be very predictive. This modified formula is as follows:
StrikeScore has used the formula to compare both the offense and defense of Van Roosmale and Adamchuk.
StrikeScore then averaged the offensive and defensive ratings to develop composite ratings. The final result favors Van Roosmalen with a 189.5 average compared to Adamchuck at 144.5. As a percentage, the formula favors Van Roosmale over Adamchuk 57 to 43 percent. The bookmakers seem to have the fight as much more of a blowout, as the Van Roosmalen opened at -270 (73 percent) against +190 (34 percent) for Adamchuk.