Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red.
StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.
Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Sept. 23 at 12:15 p.m. ET)
DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.
Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.
In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included.
Cyborg has landed seven knockouts in her eight UFC/Strikeforce/EliteXC career. The only fighter to go the distance with her was Yoko Takahashi in 2008.
Lina Lansberg is undefeated since 2012 and the #7 women’s featherweight per Fight Matrix. The only fighters ranked above her who are not signed with Bellator are Charmaine Tweet and Megan Anderson. Read more about the issues with finding suitable women's featherweights here.
Excluding bouts against T.J. Dillashaw, Renan Barao has outlanded his opponents 485 to 354. Against Dillashaw, he was been outstruck 257 to 126.
“The next Anderson Silva,” also known as Phillipe Nover, has been taken down 18 times in five UFC fights. In his only UFC win, which was questionable at best, he scored six takedowns himself.
Roy Nelson’s StrikeScore (38) seems absurdly low until you realize his opponents have landed 4.62 sig strikes per minute at a 53 percent clip.
Bigfoot has really struggled in his last five fights. Four out of his last five striking performances have earn negative StrikeScores.
Antonio Silva StrikeScore (Last Five Fights)
Francisco Trinaldo has the highest Rankings Momentum on the card.
Paul Felder lands almost exactly the same number of sig strikes as he absorbs. His striking differential is only plus 0.37 per minute.
Thiago Santos’ knockout lost at the hands of Gegard Mousasi dropped his UFC career StrikeScore from 279 to 212.
In his only UFC fight, Eric Spicely went zero for four on takedowns and submitted to Sam Alvey.
Godofredo Pepey has a 4-4 record in the UFC, and he gets it done almost entirely without striking. In his eight-fight career, has been outstruck 143 to 109. He has never won a fight in which he has absorbed more than 17 sig strikes.
In his last fight, Mike de la Torre stuffed 20 of Yui Chul Nam’s takedown attempts.
Despite claims that Gilbert Burns is a complete fighter, he still has a ways to outside the grappling game.
Michel Prazeres lands four takedowns per 15 minutes, but he only lands 32 percent of his attempts.
Rani Yahya is not much of a striker, but he avoid his opponent’s strikes very well.
Rani Yahya's Sig Strikes Absorbed per Minute
After winning the 2011 Shooto rookie tournament at 132-pound, Michinori Tanaka developed the reputation of a dangerous grappler. Prior to coming to the UFC, he had scored five submissions in nine fights. However, in the Octagon he has given up six submission attempts and 15 position passes on the ground.
In seven UFC fight, Jussier Formiga has been outstruck six times. The only fight in which he landed more strikes than an opponent was his three-minute submission victory over Scott Jorgensen in 2014.
Dustin Ortiz has given up 23 takedowns in seven UFC fights.
In fights that last longer than one round in the UFC, Erick Silva is 0-5.
In his only UFC fight, Luan Chagas dropped the decision despite outlanding Sergio Moraes on sig strikes 46 to 28.
Alan Patrick has absorbed over half of the sig strike attempts from his opponents in the UFC.
Stevie Ray has allowed his opponents to land only 29 percent of their sig strikes, and he has scored knockouts in two of his three fights in the UFC.
This bout will be Vicente Luque’s first bout in the UFC against a fighter who has not competed on a TUF season.
Hector Urbina has landed only 14 sig strikes in a little over 18 minutes of Octagon time.
Glacio Franca will looking for an improved defensive striking performance. In his last fight, he absorbed 6.27 sig strikes per minute and 54 percent of James Vick’s sig strike attempts.
During his collegiate wrestling days at Edinboro University, Gregor Gillespie went 152-13 and was a four-time All-American.