UFC 201 Fight Forecast

StrikeScore wise the main event of UFC 201 is a close fight. Robbie Lawler holds a marginal advantage over Tyron Woodley 150 to 138. In StrikeScore, a score of 100 represents a fighter who has performed equally to his/her opponents in terms of striking performance, so both have outstruck their collective opponents. However, if we look at both of the fighter’s last five fights, Woodley has had the higher scores.

Lawler vs. Woodley StrikeScore (Last 5 Fights)

In one-on-one bouts performance is not the only pertinent indicator. Fighters who have stellar performances against lesser opposition are rarely successful at the highest level of the sport. If we use contemporary Fight Matrix ranking points, it shows that Lawler has fought the much higher level of competition over those same five fights.

Lawler vs. Woodley Opponent Ranking Points (Last 5 Fights)

Of course striking is not everything in MMA. Early in his career, Woodley relied on his wrestling background. However, as he has advanced, he has depended on it less than less. He has attempted only five takedowns since his last fight in Strikeforce.

Tyron Woodley Career Takedowns

Fight Forecast
Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 7/29/2016 11:30 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 7/29/2016 11:30 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included.