The main event of UFC Fight Night 88, Thomas Almeida vs. Cody Garbrandt, might not produce the next title challenger, but it will almost certainly have some fireworks.
Among the 16 fighters ranked in the UFC bantamweight rankings plus Garbrandt, Almeida (66) and Garbrandt (62) are the top two in terms of sig strikes per knockout. However, Almeida lands at a much higher rate. His 6.82 sig strikes per minute is far and away tops in the division. The following scatter plot highlights Almeida’s status as a striking outlier and partially explains why he is a -165 favorite.
Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red.
StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.
Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 5/28/2016 6:15 PM EST)
DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.
Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.