Wrestling Tournament Win Probability Explained

StrikeScoreMMA.com has released its predictions for the 2016 Big Ten Conference wrestling tournament. You can read them for yourself on InterMatWrestle.com. The formula is based on the tournament seeding, national ranking and season Wrestler's Pythagorean Expectation. All of the values are normalized, averaged and then converted to a probability.

For the tournament seeding, the ranking is converted the a percent rank on a 1-14 scale. Any wrestler who did not receive a seed is given the equivalent of a 14th seed. For the national rankings, it is converted to a percent rank on a 1-21 scale. Any wrestler not listed is given the equivalent of 21st. You can read about WPE here.

The following table shows the process for the 157 pound weight class.

WrestlerSeedNationalWPEAveragePercent
Jason Nolf, PSU0.9330.9540.9662233940.95107446516.17
Isaiah Martinez, ILL0.8660.9090.937850510.90428350315.38
Richie Lewis, RU0.80.4540.8448275860.69960919511.90
Jake Ryan, OSU0.7330.5450.6167833360.63159444510.74
Edwin Cooper, IOWA0.6660.1810.7310412570.5260137528.95
Brian Murphy, MICH0.60.4090.6160409560.5416803199.21
Tyler Berger, NEB0.5330.1360.6258117740.4316039257.34
Lou Mascola, MD0.4660.0450.4047935750.3052645255.19
Brandon Kingsley, MINN0.0660.0450.8063234860.3057744955.20
Doug Welch, PUR0.0660.0450.5614940780.2241646933.81
Jake Danishek, IND0.0660.0450.3646441070.1585480362.70
TJ Rushchell, WIS0.0660.0450.194585840.1018619471.73
Mark Bozzo, MSU0.0660.0450.0685041480.0598347161.02
Anthony Petrone, NU0.0660.0450.0058137530.0389379180.66
    5.880245934