TUF 24 Finale Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 2 at 1:00 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Dec. 2 at 1:00 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2015 to 10/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Less than three fights in the FightMetric database


Demetrious Johnson lands the 10th most significant and total strikes in UFC history. However, his high StrikeScore is due mostly to his defense. He absorbs only 1.81 and avoids 65 percent of his opponent's sig strikes.

From a betting perspective, Johnson is by far the biggest favorite on the card. However, he has been a bigger favorite during his title run. He opened as a -1425 favorite against Chris Cariaso in 2014.

Following his first professional defeated against Johnson, Henry Cejudo's StrikeScore fell from 266 to 201.

Ryan Hall's StrikeScore is based entirely off his one fight with Artem Lobov. In that fight, he landed 23 sig strikes while absorbing only 2 in a 15 minute fight. 

Despite having the reputation of a power striker, prior to his last fight, Jake Ellenberger had not scored a knockout since 2013.

Gray Maynard has been knocked out in four of his last seven bouts. During that span, he has also been knocked down six times.