UFC Fight Night 99 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings.

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 18 at 11:15 a.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Nov. 18 at 11:15 a.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 1/1/2015 to 10/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with less than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fighter with less than three fights in FightMetric database

On Saturday, former Strikeforce and Dream champion Gegard Mousasi returns to action. He will try to avenge his only loss since 2014 against Uriah Hall. The knockout loss against Hall was probably one of the most shocking upsets of 2015. Not only because was it a jumping, spinning back kick, but also because Mousasi is one of the most tactical strikers in middleweight history. His 414 StrikeScore is the highest among ranked middleweights (UFC rankings). His abnormally high score is due mostly to his outlier defense statistics. Sure, Mousasi lands 3.67 sig strikes per minute. That is nothing to sneeze at, but his 1.17 sig strikes absorbed per minute is best in the rankings. He also allows opponents to land only 31 percent of their sig strike attempts. 

The following scatter plot highlight's Mousasi's outlier status in terms of defensive striking.

As previously stated, while Mousasi's defensive numbers are far and away the best, his offensive numbers are also above average. In the following table, best stats are listed in blue, while worst are listed in red.