UFC 204 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 7 at 1:15 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Oct. 7 at 1:15 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

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Bisping vs. Henderson StrikeScore (Last 5 Fights)

For more information on Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson check out Richard Mann's preview on ESPN.com.

Belfort vs. Mousasi StrikeScore (Last 5 Fights)

Gegard Mousasi has one of the highest career StrikeScores at 400. Outside of his last loss against Uriah Hall, he has put up at least 572 in three of his last four bouts. Vitor Belfort has had negative StrikeScores in two of his last three bouts.

Saint Preux vs. Manuwa StrikeScore (Last 5 Fights)

Ovince Saint Preux absorbed more sig strikes against Jon Jones (105) than he did in his previous four fights. Jimi Manuwa started his UFC run with three-straight wins. He has been outstruck in all of his bouts since.

Struve vs. Omielanczuk StrikeScore (Last 5 Fights)

Stefan Struve's 9400 StrikeScore over Antonio Silva was one of the highest scores of the year, but it came against Antonio Silva. Daniel Omielanczuk has outstruck his opponents 118-47 since falling to Anthony Hamilton last year.

Bektic vs. Doane StrikeScore (Last 5 Fights)

In his three-fight UFC career, Mirsad Bektic might not have been very exciting, but he has been dominant defensively. His opponents have landed only 0.79 sig strikes per minute, and he avoids 75 percent of their strikes. Russell Doane has been taken down 10 times in five UFC fights and will likely end up stuck underneath Bektic in this fight.