RIZIN Fighting World Grand Prix 2016: 1st Round Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast is a recurring series at StrikeScoreMMA.com that provides a stats based preview of upcoming events. Since striking stats are not available outside the UFC, we need to get a bit creative. The following uses Fight Matrix rankings, peak rank, Tapology user votes, betting odds and Rankings Momentum.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. Tapology scores are as of Sept. 24 at 2:45 p.m. ET. Betting odds are from 5Dimes as of Sept. 23 at 4:30 p.m. ET.

Winners of the ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championships have gone 382-149-7 in MMA. Kron Gracie won the 2013 under 77 kg division and is 2-0 in MMA heading into this fight.

Hideo Tokoro is 1-0-1 against the Gracie family after competing against a pair of Kron’s uncles. Tokoro drew with Royce in 2005 and defeated Royler the following year.

As a 36-fight Shootboxing veteran, Andy Souwer is much better prepared for MMA than your average kickboxer. His last loss under Shootboxing rules came against former Bellator title challenger Toby Imada in 2010. They ran into each other in the semifinal of the 2010 S-Cup. Souwer was unprepared for Imada’s upper body throws and it cost him the match. He gave up seven takedowns and multiple “shoot points.” However, Souwer was prepared for the grappling game and basically shut Imada down en route to a dominant decision victory.

Despite having the ability to throw wild kicks, Daron Cruickshank still comes from a wrestling base. During his UFC career, he averaged 2.04 takedown attempts per 15 minutes.

Kizaemon Saiga is a kickboxer with a 2-1 MMA record. He is mostly known for having a celebrity wife who you can hear yelling from the front row. He struggled in his Rizin debut against Tokoro last winter.

Asen Yamamoto is back after falling to Gracie in his MMA debut on New Year’s Eve. He is the son of Miyu Yamamoto who is also fighting on this card and the nephew of Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto. In 2013, he won a cadet world championship in Greco-Roman wrestling. His performance in the final was quite dramatic.

Minoru Kimura is a 23-year-old kickboxer from Brazil. He has yet to fight MMA, but he should easily pick up a victory here. He is 21-6-1 in kickboxing including a victory over K-1 posterboy Hiroya.

These days "Krazy Horse" is basically a jobber, but he did knockout K.J. Noons that one time, so he has that going for him, which is nice. It is pretty crazy to think he was a top-20 lightweight in 2002.

“Cro Cop” certainly seems to be nearing the end of his career, but he is riding a three-fight winning streak and has won nine-straight fights in Japan.

In his last fight, Hyun Man Myung was submitted by “Mighty Mo” with a schoolyard headlock. That is about all that needs to be said about him.

StrikeScore named Amir Aliakbari the tournament darkhorse.

Joao Almeida has won back-to-back fights for Jungle Fight and is 4-1 overall.

Karl Albrektsson will look to make it 2-0 against Russian opponents in Rizin. In his last bout, he scored a split-decision upset over Vadim Nemkov. The victory improved his professional record to 5-0.

Valentin Moldavsky is a combat sambo veteran with a 3-0 record. In his last bout, he scored a first-round submission victory over Daniel Doerrer on the undercard of Emelianenko vs. Maldonado.

After defeating veterans Satoshi Ishii and Vadim Nemkov, Jiri Prochazka found himself in the finals of the first Rizin tournament. In the final, he fell to Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal. However, the Czech fighter got back on track with a first-round knockout over Kazuyuki Fujita.

Mark Tanios is a 5-1 fighter who trains with Tristar Gym Lebanon. In his last fight, he was physically overwhelmed in the first round against Luc Ngeleka. However, Tanios was able to outlast his opponent and eventually take the decision.

Teodoras Aukstuolis has reached his highest ranking ever after defeating Jaideep Singh on the last Rizin show.

Since signing with KSW in 2014, Szymon Bajor has gone 2-1 in the promotion.

Kazuyuki Fujita is over 15 years removed from his peak ranking in 2001.

During his nine-year professional sumo career,  Baruto built a 431-213 record.

Fight Matrix groups all fighters above bantamweight into one category, which is how Gabi Garcia is listed at the #14 women’s featherweight. She weighed in for this bout at 245 pounds. 

Destanie Yarbrough is a former collegiate field athlete who specialized in shotput and discus. Since finishing her career, she has been playing football. Last April, she made her MMA debut with a knockout victory over Crystal Parson.

StrikeScore looked at Rena Kubota’s prospect in MMA prior to her debut last year.

Miyu Yamamoto recently competed at the 2016 Senior Canadian Championships, StrikeScore broke down the film.

Kanako Murata is a two-time junior world champion and has represented Japan at the women’s wrestling world cup. She is 3-0 in MMA after beginning her career last year.

Kanako Murata defeated Helen Marioulis in 2011 Junior World Final

The card’s highest ranked fighter is in the opening bout. Kyra Batara is the #7 atomweight. She has gone 3-0 for Combate Americas since joining the promotion last year.

UFC Fight Night 95 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of Sept. 23 at 12:15 p.m. ET)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of Sept. 23 at 12:15 p.m. ET)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fighter with fewer than three fights in FightMetric database

Cyborg has landed seven knockouts in her eight UFC/Strikeforce/EliteXC career. The only fighter to go the distance with her was Yoko Takahashi in 2008.

Lina Lansberg is undefeated since 2012 and the #7 women’s featherweight per Fight Matrix. The only fighters ranked above her who are not signed with Bellator are Charmaine Tweet and Megan Anderson. Read more about the issues with finding suitable women's featherweights here.

Excluding bouts against T.J. Dillashaw, Renan Barao has outlanded his opponents 485 to 354. Against Dillashaw, he was been outstruck 257 to 126.

“The next Anderson Silva,” also known as Phillipe Nover, has been taken down 18 times in five UFC fights. In his only UFC win, which was questionable at best, he scored six takedowns himself.

Roy Nelson’s StrikeScore (38) seems absurdly low until you realize his opponents have landed 4.62 sig strikes per minute at a 53 percent clip.

Bigfoot has really struggled in his last five fights. Four out of his last five striking performances have earn negative StrikeScores.

Antonio Silva StrikeScore (Last Five Fights)

Francisco Trinaldo has the highest Rankings Momentum on the card.

Paul Felder lands almost exactly the same number of sig strikes as he absorbs. His striking differential is only plus 0.37 per minute.

Thiago Santos’ knockout lost at the hands of Gegard Mousasi dropped his UFC career StrikeScore from 279 to 212.

In his only UFC fight, Eric Spicely went zero for four on takedowns and submitted to Sam Alvey.

Godofredo Pepey has a 4-4 record in the UFC, and he gets it done almost entirely without striking. In his eight-fight career, has been outstruck 143 to 109. He has never won a fight in which he has absorbed more than 17 sig strikes.

In his last fight, Mike de la Torre stuffed 20 of Yui Chul Nam’s takedown attempts.

Despite claims that Gilbert Burns is a complete fighter, he still has a ways to outside the grappling game.

Michel Prazeres lands four takedowns per 15 minutes, but he only lands 32 percent of his attempts.

Rani Yahya is not much of a striker, but he avoid his opponent’s strikes very well.

Rani Yahya's Sig Strikes Absorbed per Minute

After winning the 2011 Shooto rookie tournament at 132-pound, Michinori Tanaka developed the reputation of a dangerous grappler. Prior to coming to the UFC, he had scored five submissions in nine fights. However, in the Octagon he has given up six submission attempts and 15 position passes on the ground.

In seven UFC fight, Jussier Formiga has been outstruck six times. The only fight in which he landed more strikes than an opponent was his three-minute submission victory over Scott Jorgensen in 2014.

Dustin Ortiz has given up 23 takedowns in seven UFC fights.

In fights that last longer than one round in the UFC, Erick Silva is 0-5.

In his only UFC fight, Luan Chagas dropped the decision despite outlanding Sergio Moraes on sig strikes 46 to 28.

Alan Patrick has absorbed over half of the sig strike attempts from his opponents in the UFC.

Stevie Ray has allowed his opponents to land only 29 percent of their sig strikes, and he has scored knockouts in two of his three fights in the UFC.

This bout will be Vicente Luque’s first bout in the UFC against a fighter who has not competed on a TUF season.

Hector Urbina has landed only 14 sig strikes in a little over 18 minutes of Octagon time.

Glacio Franca will looking for an improved defensive striking performance. In his last fight, he absorbed 6.27 sig strikes per minute and 54 percent of James Vick’s sig strike attempts.

During his collegiate wrestling days at Edinboro University, Gregor Gillespie went 152-13 and was a four-time All-American.

Invicta FC 19 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast is a recurring series at StrikeScoreMMA.com that provides a stats based preview of upcoming events. Since striking stats are not available outside the UFC, we need to get a bit creative. The following uses Fight Matrix rankings, peak rank, Tapology user votes, betting odds and Rankings Momentum.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. Tapology scores are as of Sept. 23 at 9:00 a.m. EST. Betting odds are from 5Dimes via BestFightOdds.com as of Sept. 23 at 9:00 a.m. EST.

Jennifer Maia puts her interim flyweight title on the line against Roxanne Modafferi. The winner will earn a shot against champion Barb Honchak when she returns from injury. Maia has won four-straight fights since falling to DeAnna Bennett in 2014. After signing with Invicta FC in 2014, Modafferi has turned her career around. She stopped a six-fight losing streak and has gone 4-1 in the promotion. In her last fight, Modafferi defeated Bennett via split decision.

Jennifer Maia vs. Roxanne Modafferi Fight Matrix Ranking Points

Ayaka Hamasaki will look to make her second title defense of her atomweight belt against Jinh Yu Frey. With the victory, she should look to bump up to 115 pounds and make a run at the UFC. She is 13-1 and her only defeat has come against Claudia Gadelha. 

There seems to be a lot of hype around Tiffany van Soest. She has signed with Invicta FC and Glory and will compete in both MMA and kickboxing. In her only MMA fight to date, she was submitted in less than three minutes against Jin Tang in 2011. However, in kickboxing she is 15-2-1 and riding a five-fight winning streak since falling to Bellator Kickboxing title contender Denise Kielholtz in 2014.

Amir Aliakbari is a darkhorse in the Rizin tournament

Most of the attention paid towards Rizin’s openweight grand prix has been directed toward the return of Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic and the eventual entry of Wanderlei Silva. However, the tournament also features the big show debut of one of the most intriguing heavyweight prospects in recent memory, Amir Aliakbari.

Aliakbari is a two-time Greco-Roman wrestling world champion. He won the worlds at 96 kg before moving up to heavyweight in 2013 and winning another gold medal. He missed the 2012 Olympics due to a doping violation. After a second doping offense following to 2013 world championships, Aliakbari was stripped of his gold medal and banned from the sport.

In three world championships, he went 14-1 and outscored his opponents 61-11. That is good enough for a 97.88 Wrestler’s Pythagorean Expectation. 

“He won the worlds a few years ago, popped positive though. Beastly talent, unfortunate,” said Tim Hands of Greco-Roman wrestling website FivePointMove.com. “He had a power game. He had a lot of typical Iranian qualities too, quick technical. But again, he’s tainted.”

Aliakbari made his MMA debut last October. He has dispatched both his opponents, Hyung Chul-Lee and Radu Spinghel via first-round knockout, while only spending 1:19 in the cage. His opponent Joao Almeida holds a 4-1 record and is ranked #89 by Fight Matrix.

With the UFC bringing in USADA and coming down harder than ever before on performance enhancing drugs, it will be interesting to see where Aliakbari’s career goes. However, there is no denying his natural talent, and there is a good chance he will make a long run in the Rizin tournament.

Amir Aliakbari Record at World Championships
2013 UWW World Championships at 120kg
Def. Oleksandr Chernetskyi (UKR) 3-1 (Fall)
Def. Johan Euren (SWE) 7-0
Def. Eduard Popp (GER) 7-0
Def. Riza Kayaalp (TUR) 4-1
Def. Heiki Nabi (EST) 4-0

2010 UWW World Championships at 96kg
Def. Davyd Saldadze (UZB) 1-0, 1-0
Def. Mohamed Abdelfatah (EGY) 1-0, 1-0
Def. Kaloyan Dinchev (BUL) 3-0, 1-0
Def. Aslanbek Khushtov (RUS) 1-0, 1-0
Def. Tsimafei Dzeinichenka (BLR) 2-2, 1-0

2009 UWW World Championships at 96kg
Def. Jesper Viholt (DEN 5-0, 4-0
Def. Kaloyan Dinchev (BUL) 3-0, 3-0
Def. Alin Alexuc-Ciurariu (ROU) 2-0, 1-0
Lost to Balasz Kiss (HUN) 1-0, 0-5, 0-1
Def. Davyd Saldadze (UZB) 1-0, 2-2

Film Study: Miyu Yamamoto at the 2016 Senior Canadian Championships

Rizin Fighting Federation returns this weekend with a 13-fight event that features the opening round of their openweight grand prix and some interesting superfights. In Japan, the name of the game is broadcast television, and Rizin secured their timeslot on Fuji TV by acquiring the services of Miyu Yamamoto.

The former multiple-time world champion freestyle wrestler is part of a famous wrestling family. In addition to herself, her sister Seiko is also a world champion, her father Ikuei represented Japan at the 1972 Olympics, and her son Asen and brother Norifumi “Kid” are also MMA fighters. 

Yamamoto recently turned 42 years old, which is certainly not the ideal age to begin an MMA career. Her three world championships came in 1991, 1994 and 1995. However, she has been competing at a high level in wrestling throughout 2016. Yamamoto hoped to make the 2016 Canadian Olympic team at 53 kg, but failed to make the team. 

At the 2016 Senior Canadian Championships, Yamamoto went 4-2 and ended up finishing in fifth place. Her two losses came against eventual champion Samantha Stewart and third place finisher Brianne Barry. In those two matches, Yamamoto scored only one takedown on 16 committed attempts. However, all of her other matches were won by either technical superiority or pin fall. She finished the tournament with a 88.43 Wrestler’s Pythagorean Expectation.

Yamamoto’s wrestling background should serve her well against Rena Kubota. With a background in Shootboxing, instead of regular kickboxing, Kubota does have experience dealing with takedowns. However, in her fight against Jessica Penne, she was taken down 16 times in a 15-minute fight. In three UFC fights, Penne has only landed four takedowns. 

The following are videos of Yamamoto at the 2016 Senior Canadian Championships via 49 North Wrestling.

Miyu Yamamoto vs. Kaitlin Kucharski
In the opening round of the tournament, Yamamoto quickly scores a takedown and works for the fall. She needed only 1:40 to move onto the next round

Miyu Yamamoto vs. Samantha Stewart
Things got a lot tougher for Yamamoto in the second round. Against the eventual champion, Yamamoto went zero for 10 on takedown attempts and eventually lost 12-2. While shooting from the outside without very much setup was not very effective against Stewart, it might work against a less experienced wrestler.

Miyu Yamamoto vs. Rachel Alder
Yamamoto rebounded in the consolation bracket with a dominant 10-0 technical superiority victory over Rachel Alder. She landed a takedown right away and finished with several exposures en route to the 1:25 win.

Miyu Yamamoto vs. Cara Nania
In her third shutout victory of the day, Yamamoto landed xx of xx takedowns on the way to a technical superiority win.

Miyu Yamamoto vs. Brianne Barry
Barry was able to stop five of six takedown attempts from Yamamoto and eliminate her from the running for third place. Barry earned fifth place finishes at the 2010 UWW Junior World Championships and 2014 World University Games.

Bonus Match
This weekend's Rizin event will not be the first time Yamamoto has competed in a ring. On Nov. 20, 1994, she wrestled at Big Egg Wrestling Universe in front of 42,500 fans. The event, which was a professional wrestling show, featured a pair of freestyle wrestling matches and a Shootboxing match. The following is Dave Meltzer's description of the match from the Nov. 28, 1994 Wrestling Observer Newsletter (paywall).

Another 4:00 one-round amateur wrestling match saw Miyu Yamamoto of Japan defeat Ana Gomez of France 4-1. Yamamoto, who wrestles at 110 and won the world championships this year and has won the Japanese nationals the past three years, is considered the best female amateur in Japan and has something of a name because when she came out everyone in the crowd reacted pretty big to her. Gomez took second in the world meet at the same weight. It was easy to see why Yamamoto is considered the best amateur, regardless of weight because she had the quickness and skill of a lighter weight class NCAA champion male wrestler.
— Dave Meltzer

UFC Fight Night 94 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 9/16/2016 11:30 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 9/16/2016 11:30 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with less than three fights in FightMetric database

*Fighter with less than three fights in FightMetric database

Since falling to Conor McGregor, Dustin Poirier has outlanded his opponents 159 to 79.

Michael Johnson does not really differentiate himself from his opponents. His opponents land nearly as many sig strikes per minute as he does (3.46-3.89). His opponents land 40 percent of their sig strikes, while Johnson only lands 35.

Uriah Hall is 1-4 in UFC fights that go to decision. Hall’s ranking jumped up significantly following upset over Gegard Mousasi, which explains his 45.65 Rankings Momentum.

In his last three fights, Derek Brunson has outlanded his opponents 61 to 4 and scored three knockouts.

Evan Dunham throws a ton of volume. He lands a respectable number of sig strikes per minute, 5.37, while only landing 38 percent.

Rick Glenn’s ranking peaked at #17 after he defeated Georgi Karakhanyan for the WSOF title. It has since leveled off.

Since returning from an over six-year layoff in 2015, “Jucao” has landed one sig strikes in two UFC bouts.

Chris Wade had scored 11 takedowns without being taken down himself prior to his last fight. Against Rustam Khabilov, he failed to land a takedown for the first time in his UFC career and allow Khabilov to land 6 of 9 takedown attempts.

Islam Makhachev’s UFC career has been a tale of two fights. In his debut, he thoroughly outstruck Leo Kuntz 32 to 7. However, in his last fight, he was knocked out on only three punches by Adriano Martins.

Chas Skelly has never really been much of a striker, but his last fight really hurt him from a numbers perspective. Against Darren Elkins, he was outstruck 104 to 27, which dropped his UFC per minute striking differential to -1.51.

Maximo Blanco and Skelly should be an interesting freestyle vs. folkstyle wrestling battle. Blanco has landed 11 takedowns in his UFC/Strikeforce career. However, against the best wrestler he has faced, Pat Healy, he allowed five takedowns and fell via submission.

So far in his UFC career, Gabriel Benitez has avoided 71 percent of his opponent’s strikes. However, Andre Fili only needed to landed 16 sig strikes to finish him at UFC Fight Night 78.

Like most fighters with a StrikeScore under 100, Sam Sicilia lands fewer sig strikes than his opponents (2.74 slpm vs 3.33) and at a worse rate (37 percent to 43)

Augusto Montano has been takedown and had his guard passed in both of his UFC fights and Chris Heatherly and Cathal Pendred.

In his UFC debut, Belal Muhammad landed over five sig strikes per minute and absorbed over five sig strikes per minute. Against Alan Jouban, defense was optional.

Antonio Carlos Junior is returning to action after suffering his first career knockout loss against Daniel Kelly.

In his UFC debut, Leonardo Leleco was outstruck 64 to 57 by Anthony Smith. However, he got into a groove in the third round. In the final frame, he outlanded Smith 39 to 6.

Jose Quinonez picked up his first career submission victory over Leonardo Morales in his last outing.

In his UFC debut, Joey Gomez struggled. Rob Font landed 52 sig strikes and finished him late in the second round.

Erick Montano landed two takedowns in his UFC debut against Enrique Marin, but he landed zero sig strikes on the ground.

Randy Brown’s striking game was shut down in his last fight by the wrestling of Michael Graves. However, Brown successfully defended five of seven takedown attempts and absorbed only 11 sig strikes.

Alejandro Perez scored the highest StrikeScore of the year (11800) against Ian Entwistle. In the fight, he landed 48 sig strikes while absorbing none. 

After making his professional debut in 2015, Albert Morales broke into the Fight Matrix rankings at #444 featherweight after defeating Anthony Paredes at World Series of Fighting 28.

Bellator 161 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast is a recurring series at StrikeScoreMMA.com that provides a stats based preview of upcoming events. Since striking stats are not available outside the UFC, we need to get a bit creative. The following uses Fight Matrix rankings, peak rank, Tapology user votes, betting odds and Rankings Momentum.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. Tapology scores are as of Sept. 15 at 1:00 p.m. EST. Betting odds are from 5Dimes via BestFightOdds.com as of Sept. 15 at 1:00 p.m. EST.

*Ranking at Light Heavyweight

*Ranking at Light Heavyweight

CM Punk joins the 2016 Zero Club

It is an understatement to say that CM Punk did not have the best performance in his UFC debut against Mickey Gall. He managed to land zero significant strikes, zero takedowns, zero submission attempts and zero passes. 

Screenshot FightMetric.com

Screenshot FightMetric.com

The egregrious stat line certainly stands out, but it actually not totally rare. So far in 2016, seven other fighters have been "zeroed." In fact, it actually happened three times on one card, UFC Fight Night 83 back in February. The following tables shows all the fighters who have put up equivalent stat lines this year. All stats via FightMetric.com


FighterOpponentEventDateStrTDSubPass
Ryan BaderAnthony JohnsonUFC on Fox 181/30/20160000
Joe RiggsChris CamozziUFC Fight Night 832/21/20160000
Roan CarneiroDerek BrunsonUFC Fight Night 832/21/20160000
Daniel SarafianOluwale BamgboseUFC Fight Night 832/21/20160000
Thibault GoutiTeemu PackalenUFC Fight Night 842/27/20160000
Clint HesterMarcos Rogerio de LimaUFC 1974/23/20160000
Antonio SilvaStefan StruveUFC Fight Night 875/8/20160000
CM PunkMickey GallUFC 2039/10/20160000

UFC 203 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 9/9/2016 4:30 PM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 9/9/2016 4:30 PM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game. Also listed are the average points scored by the fighter in the fantasy game. For a breakdown of DraftKings scoring click here.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with less than three bouts in the FightMetric database

*Fighter with less than three bouts in the FightMetric database


Stipe Miocic has scored knockouts in six of 11 bouts in the UFC. In his last five fights, he is scoring 0.077 knockouts per minute.

Alistair Overeem's accuracy is best in UFC history and prevents counters.

Prior to his title fight against Miocic, Fabricio Werdum had only knocked out once by Junior dos Santos in 2008.

When Travis Browne loses, he tends to get blown out. In his five UFC losses, he has been outstruck 295 to 111.

During his scripted WWE career, CM Punk went 425-245-31. Despite having a supposed BJJ background, only 28 of those 425 victories came via submission. However, he was strong defensively on the ground. He was submitted only six times in 701 matches. (Stats via ProFightdb.com)

Mickey Gall landed only one sig strikes in his 45-second submission victory over Michael Jackson in his UFC debut.

Urijah Faber actually avoids 64 percent of his opponent's sig strikes, but he also lands at a low percentage 41 percent.

After three UFC fights, Jimmie Rivera is landing nearly five sig strikes per minute. In his last fight, he landed three of five takedowns.

In her first fight at 115 pounds, Jessica Andrade landed 14.75 sig strikes per minute, well above her normal mark of 6.58.

Joanne Calderwood is one fight short of qualify for UFC record. After four UFC fights, she is landed 7.35 sig strikes per minute, which is better than the current record holder Nikita Krylov (6.94).

Excluding her fight against Leslie Smith, Jessica Eye has been outstruck in the UFC 254 to 208.

Bethe Correia fought for a UFC title despite never being above #10 in the Fight Matrix Quarterly Generated Historical Rankings.

Brad Tavares has landed 463 sig strikes in the UFC but registered only one knockout He scored one against Phi Baroni in 2011.

During his last three fights, Caio Magalhaes has spent less than five minutes total in the Octagon.

Nik Lentz has landed 54 takedowns in his UFC career which is seventh best all time.

Per Fight Matrix, Michael McBride's peak ranking at #293 at lightweight in the first quarter of 2016.

After accounting for his four knockout losses, CB Dollaway's StrikeScore falls from 126 to 102.

Francimar Barroso's number of significant strikes landed and absorbed are virtually identical (2.82 landed and 2.85 absorbed).

Some people are just not into defense. Yancy Medeiros absorbs over five sig strikes per minute and avoids only 44 percent of his opponent's strikes. That explains his incredibly low StrikeScore (32).

Remember when Sean Spencer was robbed against Cathal Pendred?

In his UFC/Strikeforce career, Drew Dober has been outstruck 223 to 173.

From 2012 to today, Jason Gonzalez has more than doubled his Fight Matrix rankings points, 23 to 51. He is currently ranked #200 lightweight.

Titan FC 41 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast is a recurring series at StrikeScoreMMA.com that provides a stats based preview of upcoming events. Since striking stats are not available outside the UFC, we need to get a bit creative. The following uses Fight Matrix rankings, peak rank, Tapology user votes, betting odds and Rankings Momentum.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. Tapology scores are as of Sept. 9 at 11:15 a.m. EST. Betting odds are from 5Dimes via BestFightOdds.com as of Sept. 9 at 11:15 a.m. EST.

Titan FC 41 Screenshot.png

In the main event, Carina Damm and Kalindra Faria will face off for the third time. Damm took their first meeting in 2009, while Faria scored a first-round submission victory in the rematch. Despite being a respectable grappler, Damm is vulnerable on the ground. Of his six career defeats, she has lost via submission four times.

Andre Harrison should really be in the UFC already. He is riding an impressive string of victories over the likes of Cody Bollinger, Kurt Holobaugh, Desmond Green, Steven Siler and Deivison Ribeiro. His lack of finishing ability is probably the reason he is not in the Octagon. However, in his last fight, he scored a third-round knockout. A finish over another veteran like Alexandre Bezerra should probably earn him a shot in the UFC.

Andre Harrison vs. Alexandre Bezerra Ranking Points

UFC Fight Night 93 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 9/2/2016 11:00 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 9/2/2016 11:00 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

One Championship Unbreakable Warriors Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast is a recurring series at StrikeScoreMMA.com that provides a stats based preview of upcoming events. Since striking stats are not available outside the UFC, we need to get a bit creative. The following uses Fight Matrix rankings, peak rank, Tapology user votes, betting odds and Rankings Momentum.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 10/1/2014 to 7/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. Tapology scores are as of Sept. 1 at 11:00 p.m. EST. Betting odds are from 5Dimes via BestFightOdds.com as of Sept. 1 at 11:00 p.m. EST.

*Ranking at Lightweight ^Ranking at Light Heavyweight

*Ranking at Lightweight
^Ranking at Light Heavyweight

UFC on Fox 21 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast previews the event by providing the fighter's career StrikeScore as well as UFC Fantasy predictions, betting odds, DraftKings prices and Fight Matrix rankings. In the following table, predicted winners are in blue and predicted losers are in red. 

StrikeScore is a proprietary stat that measures striking efficiency. The formula uses Fightmetric data, so fighters without fights in the database are not included. Also, a fighter must have at least three fights in the database before the formula can considered at all predictive.

UFC Fantasy and Tapology numbers are the percent of players who have picked each fighter to win. (Numbers are current as of 8/26/2016 11:30 AM EST)

Odds is the betting line of 5Dimes taken from BestFightOdds.com. (Numbers are current as of 8/26/2016 11:30 AM EST)

DraftKings prices listed below are the dollar value used for the fantasy game.

Fight Matrix column represents the fighter's current unbiased and objective ranking.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. 

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database ^Ranking at Lightweight ^^Ranking at Featherweight

*Fighter with less than 3 fights in FightMetric database
^Ranking at Lightweight
^^Ranking at Featherweight

Bellator 160 Fight Forecast

Fight Forecast is a recurring series at StrikeScore that provides a stats based preview of upcoming events. The following uses Fight Matrix rankings, peak rank, Tapology user votes, betting odds and Rankings Momentum.

In this case, the period used for Rankings Momentum was 7/1/2014 to 4/1/2016. Fighters must have been ranked in at least four quarters during the period to be included. Tapology scores are as of Aug. 26 at 9:30 a.m. EST. Betting odds are from 5Dimes via BestFightOdds.com as of Aug. 26 at 9:30 a.m. EST.

*Ranking at Welterweight ^Ranking at Featherweight **Ranking at Bantamweight

*Ranking at Welterweight
^Ranking at Featherweight
**Ranking at Bantamweight


Benson Henderson vs. Patricio "Pitbull" Freire"
It is interesting to see Freire as such an underdog. He actually started out as even less of a favorite, but the public has bet him to +195 at press time. 

Considering the fighter who has given Freire the most trouble is Daniel Straus, Henderson seems to present a tough stylistic matchup for him. On top of that, Henderson will be the much bigger fighter in the cage. The fact that the fight is three rounds also appears to stack the deck against "Pitbull." As the more dynamic fighter, the extra two rounds would give him more time to score a finish.

Henderson needs a win here to show that his apparent decline is due more to underestimation of Andrey Koreshkov and less to due with his ability. In retrospect, his three-fight stint at welterweight was probably not the best idea. He went 2-1, but all of his performances were well below his career average in terms of StrikeScore.

Georgi Karakhanyan vs. Bubba Jenkins
In their first fight, Karakhanyan telegraphed the fact that he was going to continually go for the guillotine. He ended up finishing with it anyway. Since then Jenkins has shown incremental improvements, but his submission defense is still a concern. With that being said, the former NCAA champion should be the favorite here. Their first fight withstanding, Karakhanyan normally struggles with wrestlers. If Jenkins can get early takedowns, the former WSOF champion will become less of a submission threat as the fight goes on.

Saad Awad vs. Derek Anderson
If Awad lands early, he can put anyone away, see wins over Evangelista "Cyborg" Santos and Will Brooks. If Anderson can survive the early onslaught, he should be able to prove he is the more technical striker and take a decision victory.

A.J. McKee vs. Cody Walker
McKee is the biggest favorite on the card despite only being 4-0 as a professional. It makes sense in this case. Despite being only 4-0, his opponents in those bouts came in with a combined 11-1 record, so it is not like he is smashing cans. Plus, Walker really struggled with his defensive wrestling against J.C. Cottrell in his last fight (Video). McKee might not be as accomplished a wrestler as his father or cousin, but he still competed at a high level in his school and can depend on it if he gets into trouble here. 

A.J. McKee vs. Ali Naser (Expected starter for Arizona State next season)

Joey Davis vs. Keith Cutrone
Obviously, Davis should be able to win his professional MMA debut based on his wrestling background alone. At Notre Dame College, he went 131-0 and captured four NCAA Division II titles. In the history of NCAA wrestling, there have been only three wrestlers to go undefeated and win four titles: Davis, Olympic gold medalist Cael Sanderson and Marcus LeVesseur. LeVesseur accomplished the feat for Division III Augsburg. He fought MMA 29 times from 2003-2012 but went only 1-2 in the UFC with a split-decision win over Carlo Prater.

Interesting side note: Bellator has promoted Davis as having an undefeated 5-0 amateur MMA record. The only source for this record seems to be an interview Davis did with InterMat in 2014. Tapology actually has him listed as 1-1 in the amateur ranks. Either way, he should have a long and successful MMA career in front of him.